錸寶AMOLED 加商Igins採用

2011.05.31   【經濟日報╱記者王皓正、蕭君暉／台北報導】

錸德（2349）集團旗下錸寶開發出獨步全球的非晶矽（a-Si）主動有機激發光顯示器（AMOLED），大幅降低成本，獲加拿大商Igins採用，並導入全球智慧型手機大廠，全球AMOLED大缺貨，錸寶前景看好。

錸寶推出採用a-Si做為背板的AMOLED，不同於目前AMOLED都是採用低溫多晶矽（LTPS）做背板，錸寶展示全球首度採用a-Si背板的AMOLED產品。錸德表示，目前AMOLED面板，已達可量產階段，同時打入面板與驅動設計龍頭廠Igins的供應鏈，並獲得國際手機大廠採用，目前正在導入。

DisplaySearch副總裁Jennifer Colegrove表示，錸寶的a-Si背板AMOLED採用a-Si（即一般的TFT-LCD製程），成本大幅下降，並可望成為智慧型手機，與其他行動裝置螢幕的第二供應來源。

錸寶這款3.5吋螢幕的AMOLED，是採用奇景光電的驅動IC，至於a-Si的背板，是與台灣面板廠合作，並搭配Igins獨家的AMOLED驅動補償技術，該產品正導入國際智慧型手機大廠。

DisplaySearch表示，目前全球AMOLED產品是處於大缺貨的狀態，LTPS的產能也是嚴重不足，由於一般的LCD製程產能充足，若是採用a-Si的背板，不僅成本降低，也一舉解決產能不足的窘境。

群聯嗆新帝 兩年拚龍頭

2011.05.30   【經濟日報╱記者何易霖／台北報導】

全球最大儲存型快閃記憶體（NAND Flash）控制IC廠群聯董事長潘健成表示，平板電腦、智慧手機創造高毛利記憶體的新應用，促成記憶體業加快整合風潮，從最上游IC端與最終端模組領域開始發動。

群聯掌握此趨勢，揮入可攜式電子新商機，要挑戰美商新帝，目標兩年內搶下可攜式應用龍頭寶座。

群聯是全球NAND Flash控制IC龍頭，客戶涵蓋記憶體模組龍頭金士頓（Kingston）、東芝等一線大廠，每月控制IC出貨量至少4,000萬顆。全球每三支USB隨身碟，就有一支採用群聯的控制IC。

潘健成從產業最上游關鍵零組件廠的「制高點」角色，看記憶體業後市發展。儘管DRAM整合宣告失敗，他認台灣為記憶體業的整合風潮並未因此受阻，已從最上游IC端與最終端模組領域開始發動。以下為訪談紀要：

問：如何看記憶體業趨勢？

答：DRAM方面我不是專家，但可以預見的是，平板電腦、智慧型手機市場快速崛起，衝擊傳統個人電腦市場，對DRAM需求絕非好事。平板電腦、智慧型手機大量使用NAND Flash作為儲存介面，相關應用商機會愈來愈大。

以DRAM來看，目前的軟體用4GB容量來運作，已綽綽有餘，市場面臨發展瓶頸。但NAND Flash隨著iPhone、iPad等搭載量從早期8GB、16GB一路延伸至32GB甚至64GB以上，是以倍數的速度成長。

平板電腦等可攜式裝置對於記憶體品質要求比過往更高，以往手機、數位相機都採用外接式記憶卡擴充記憶容量，記憶卡壞了可以馬上更換、價錢也便宜；但平板裝置產品單價高，儲存媒介都採用內建的嵌入式記憶體（eMMC），一旦壞了等於整台機器「報銷」，技術上要求層次更高。

嵌入式記憶體（eMMC）技術非常難，我舉個例子，如果過去群聯做記憶卡控制IC的難度是「1」，eMMC的難度是「20」以上。

問：如何看下半年NAND Flash市況？

答：日本強震後一度造成報價急漲，現在市場機制回歸正常。5、6月看來較淡，主因傳統淡季影響，而且3月報價一下子衝太快，現在回檔修正一下，有利第三季傳統旺季報價向上衝。

目前看來，市場庫存消化會在6月底前告一段落，隨著台北國際電腦展本周開展，數十款新平板電腦問世，後續帶來的NAND Flash補貨商機可期，我預期7月便可看到市場轉強。

整合利基 獲利大成長

問：可攜式裝置促成嵌入式記憶體風潮，為產業帶來的影響？

答：記憶卡控制IC是衝量，單一出貨幾百萬顆是很正常，但利潤非常低，一顆可能只有幾分美元；eMMC量小、但客製化程度高，一顆IC可能賣十美元，結合成品可賣上百美元，利潤豐厚。

過去記憶卡控制IC商與記憶體模組廠屬於供應鏈關係，IC廠賣IC給模組廠，銀貨兩訖，買賣完成後，模組廠想辦法把庫存賣掉，IC廠想辦法開發更便宜的IC，兩者「各走各的路」。平板電腦帶動eMMC需求後，這樣的商業模式就必須改變。

過往記憶體模組廠主要鎖定售後升級（after market）市場，但PC市場萎縮，平板電腦、智慧手機毫無售後升級市場可言，要有因應之道。控制IC商有技術但不知道終端需求在哪；模組廠直接面對客戶，但沒有技術，兩者結合，共搶新商機，是必然的趨勢。

雖記憶體領域中，DRAM產業的整合宣告失敗，但業界整合風潮已悄悄在最上游控制IC端與最下游的模組端興起，過往「單打獨鬥」的方式已不管用，演變成「共生共榮」的關係，沒有掌握這個趨勢的業者，勢必遭到淘汰。

把餅做大 結合通路商

問：群聯與如何與業界整合？成效與目標為何？

答：群聯陸續透過私募，引進東芝、海力士（Hynix）等NAND晶片大廠入股，同時也獲得全球最大記憶體模組廠金士頓資金與技術奧援，金士頓現持有群聯約6%股權。

群聯不僅向東芝、海力士採購NAND晶片，也出貨控制IC給兩大晶片廠，可以掌握最新市場動向。透過與東芝、海力士合作，群聯的控制IC幾乎獲取得所有線智慧型手機廠採用。

與金士頓方面，雙方看好eMMC領域發展，還一起合資設立金士頓電子，投入嵌入式記憶體研發設計生產。金士頓有通路，知道客戶群在那，要的是什麼，群聯則有開發控制IC關鍵技術，兩者互補。

群聯從2006年起開始布局嵌入式記憶體，現在每一季出貨約1,000多萬顆，規模在亞太地區已打片無敵手，今年將成為公司成長的重點業務，透過與金士頓合作，已打入國內一線品牌大廠供應鏈，開始出貨。

群聯不會放棄任何高毛利的市場，除了eMMC之外，先前在德國布局的快閃記憶體資料安全應用，也陸續邁入收成，已取得歐洲政府訂單，也與國際車廠洽談導入鑰匙等應用，不少軍方單位也很有興趣。

圖／經濟日報提供

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新聞辭典》嵌入式記憶體 明日之星

是智慧型手機等行動裝置重要零組件，利潤也相對比隨身碟等高出數十倍，業界形容「賣1萬顆嵌入式產品，比賣100萬顆隨身碟應用產品還好賺」。

嵌入式記憶體是將數顆NAND晶片堆疊封裝在單一晶片，直接焊接在手機等儲存裝置的電路板，沒有傳統機械式硬碟無法防震及讀寫次數少等缺點，成為未來行動裝置的主流儲存媒介，創造龐大商機。

也因為產品賣相好，近年來嵌入式快閃記憶體模組被業界視為「產業明日之星」，不僅金士頓、群聯等大廠積極搶進，創見、威剛等也躍躍欲試。

Yahoo's History of Silence

MAY 26, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By MARTIN PEERS

When it comes to Alibaba, Yahoo says it doesn't want to talk about the past. That won't comfort investors worried about the future.

It was understandable that Yahoo executives opened Wednesday's investor day by talking about Alibaba Group of China, 40% owned by Yahoo. Two weeks ago, Yahoo said Alibaba's ownership of the Alipay online-payments business had been transferred to a company majority-owned by Alibaba Chief Executive Jack Ma. According to Yahoo, Alibaba's board wasn't told at the time.

Reuters

Alibaba Group Chief Executive Jack Ma

Unfortunately, Yahoo executives stonewalled the inevitable questions, saying they had agreed not to "discuss the past." Instead, their message was that negotiations with Alibaba are under way and that two principles had been agreed to. One is that Alibaba should be compensated for Alipay. The other: that future terms for business between Alibaba's auction site, Taobao, and Alipay should keep value on the Taobao side. As Taobao now accounts for most of Alipay's business, the ownership transfer had raised the possibility Alipay could impose fees on Taobao transactions to benefit itself.

Despite these assurances, Yahoo's account of recent events has to cast doubt on the value of any agreement with Alibaba. If one asset can be transferred secretly, how solid is any business deal?

Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang kept reminding investors that Alipay's need to get a license to operate was crucial, requiring Chinese ownership. But that doesn't justify secretly transferring an asset—if that is what happened. Until the history is cleared up, investors can't be confident Yahoo's China stake is safe.

Write to Martin Peers at martin.peers@wsj.com

Gold Is Reaching Toward May Peak

MAY 26, 2011      the wall street journal

By MATT DAY

NEW YORK—Gold futures climbed toward its early May peak as investors sought safe-haven assets, while silver jumped more than 4% as the metal continued to rebound after its recent lows.

Gold for May delivery settled $3.40, or 0.2%, higher at $1,526.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract is 1.9% below the record close of $1,556.70 reached on May 2.

Worries about the ability of Europe's currency union to manage members' sovereign debt have sent investors looking for assets they perceive as safe in times of trouble, such as gold.

"The ongoing themes in Greece and the rest of Europe keep making people look for a paperless currency," said Adam Klopfenstein, a broker with Lind-Waldock.

The yellow metal isn't as closely linked to industrial cycles as are some other commodities, and some investors buy gold on the belief that it holds its value well during turmoil in currencies or other markets.

Silver futures continued to rebound Wednesday, as traders bet that the sharp selloff at the beginning of the month pushed prices too low amid steady industrial demand for the metal. Futures had slipped from late-April highs above $49 a troy ounce down to as low as $32 an ounce, as Comex raised the cost of holding contracts and many commodities fell.

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Bloomberg News

Gold for May delivery settled at $1,526.60 a troy ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract is 1.9% below the record close of $1,556.70 reached on May 2. Above, gold bars at a precious metals store in Beijing last week.

But investors have warmed to raw materials this week, pushing bellwethers such as copper and crude oil back above key psychological levels and lifting sentiment among silver traders.

May-delivery silver futures ended up $1.519, or 4.2%, at $37.640 a troy ounce.

The rise in precious metals during the last three days has come despite strength in the dollar. A stronger greenback can curb demand for dollar-denominated metals futures by making them more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

But investor demand for the perceived safety of gold and the dollar has been robust enough to lift both, traders said.

"There's been a noteworthy divergence from the normal relationship between gold and the dollar," said Matt Zeman, head of trading at Kingsview Financial. "We've seen several sessions of higher dollar and higher gold."

Write to Matt Day at matt.day@dowjones.com

Prepare for an Attack of the China Bears

MAY 25, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By TOM ORLIK

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that China's investment-led economy tilted further out of whack in 2010.

Investment as a share of gross domestic product came in at a record 46.2% in 2010, up from 45.2% in 2009. Household consumption fell to 33.8%, down from 35% the previous year.

High levels of investment and low domestic consumption are a reminder of all the things wrong with China's economy: excess industrial capacity, real-estate bubbles and a population that is still happier stuffing cash under the mattress than spending it. Pessimists say such unbalanced growth can't be sustained.

European Pressphoto Agency

A farmer works in a field nearby an windmill in Qingdao, Shandong province. Infrastructure investment has enabled China to sustain real growth in household consumption at an average of about 8.1% a year for the past decade

But investors should remember that in developing economies it is investment, not consumption, that drives growth. China may be the world's second-largest economy, but it is still developing. Building moresemiconductor foundries and steel furnaces, as well as the energy infrastructure to fuel them and the roads and ports to get the goods to market, increases output and raises income.

This is what has enabled China to sustain real growth in household consumption at an average of about 8.1% a year for the past decade. That is quite strong, even if consumption hasn't grown quite as fast as GDP.

China's economy isn't about to fall off a cliff. High levels of investment are justified given that millions of Chinese are moving to cities every year, while central and western provinces are still in dire need of infrastructure such as roads, railways and airports.

Wei Li, China economist at Standard Chartered, says such investment-heavy growth—which has continued for some 30 years now—can be sustained for another three to five years.

But not forever. Ghost towns with no residents, and excess capacity in some sectors of the economy, show wasteful investment is a growing problem. The return generated per unit of capital in the past decade is half the level it was in the 1990s, according to Harry Wu, a professor at Japan's Hitotsubashi University.

The government is in transition: President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao are both entering their final year in top spots.

And Beijing faces some difficult policy choices. Rising wages will help boost consumption, but higher interest rates, a stronger yuan and better public services—all of which transfer funds from enterprises to households—are also needed if China is to fend off the bears.

—Tom Orlik

Write to Tom Orlik at tom.orlik@wsj.com

Economic Indicators Weigh on Asian Markets

MAY 23, 2011     the wall street journal

By ALEX FRANGOS

HONG KONG—Signs of economic sluggishness in China and renewed European debt woes weighed on Asian markets Monday, raising questions about whether a bigger change in market sentiment is under way.

Stock markets from Japan to India were in the red, and the U.S. dollar rose broadly as investors pulled back from risky bets. The selloff sent several benchmark stock indexes into negative territory for the year, including Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, which fell 2.1% in afternoon trading to its lowest level since March 22. It is now down nearly 6% over the last month. China's Shanghai Composite fell nearly 3% to below 2775, down more than 1% for the year and down nearly 8% over the past 30 days.

In the Markets

• Shanghai Leads Asia Lower
• Australian Markets Lower on China PMI

The immediate preoccupation among traders was the intensifying situation in Europe, where local Spanish elections that flipped power to the opposition created jitters that revelations of worse-than-expected debts among municipal governments could be ahead. And Standard & Poor's put Italy's bond rating on negative watch late Friday. The euro was 0.8% lower against the dollar during London trading to $1.399, its lowest level since mid-March.

Also at play are emerging signals that some sort of deceleration in the global economy, including in China, is at hand. That has left investors wondering if what is happening is a short-term breather in growth or the start of something more serious.

"The question is, is this cycle over," said Khiem Do, fund manager for Barings Asset Management in Hong Kong, where he oversees $10 billion of investments. His firm used softening economic indicators in the U.S., Asia, and Europe in recent weeks as a cue to cut exposure to stocks and hold more cash and government bonds.

Mr. Do, however, doesn't think there is a double-dip in store and likens the current situation to mid-cycle corrections that markets experienced in 1994 and 2004. Those were followed with bull runs. "We can't build a bear market case," he said.

A preliminary read of an HSBC purchasing managers index for China slowed to its lowest rate in 10 months in May. At 51.1, the index is still in positive territory, above 50, but below the long-term average of 52.3. Business surveys in the U.S. last week pointed to a downshift in industrial activity there. April's export orders from Taiwan and freight volumes from Hong Kong's airport, the world's busiest cargo hub, point to a mild slowdown in trade growth.

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ZUMAPRESS.com

An investor checks stock movements at a brokerage firm in China's Liaoning province on Monday.

The signs of moderation please some investors, who figure that measures to slow growth and fight inflation are working. China's inflation rate was 5.3% in April, above the government's 4% target.

"You need to see the leading indicators like PMI slow down first, then inflation figures will follow, and then policy makers will start to get happy and they will gradually focus on a more pro-growth or stabilized-growth policy," said Oscar Leung, senior investment manager for ING Investment Management in Hong Kong.

Yet he figures it will take at least another month or two of economic data for investors to decide if inflation has been tamed. So worries persist that price rises could get out of control and a heavier dose of tightening will be needed down the road.

The Australian dollar, seen as a proxy for Chinese growth, fell nearly 1% against the U.S. dollar to $1.053. It hit a post-1983 float high of $1.10 in late April. Australia benefits from strong Chinese demand for natural resources such as iron ore, coal and natural gas.

The U.S. dollar also rose nearly 1% against the South Korean won, and more than 1% versus the South African rand and Malaysian ringgit, currencies that benefit when investors are in risk-taking moods. Crude oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped 2.5% and traded at 97.61 a barrel.

The timing of the market swoon isn't good for Asia's investment bankers, who have a full pipeline of deals. Hong Kong alone expects more than $9 billion in initial public offerings this week and next, including for fashion house Prada SpA, luggage maker Samsonite Corp., Australian miner Resourcehouse Ltd. and casino operator MGM China Holdings Ltd. Successful IPOs often rely on good market timing, so a prolonged bout of general pessimism can make the job of raising capital much harder.

Write to Alex Frangos at alex.frangos@wsj.com

Goldman Cuts China, Asia Forecasts

MAY 24, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By GEOFFREY ROGOW And ENDA CURRAN

SYDNEY—Citing higher oil prices and supply-side constraints, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Tuesday cut its growth forecast for China and predicted inflation will accelerate in the world's second-largest economy.

In addition, the U.S. investment bank lowered its outlook for the Asia region, excluding Japan.

Goldman now forecasts China's gross domestic product will grow 9.4% this year and 9.2% in 2012, down from the previous forecasts of 10% and 9.5%, respectively. The bank raised its 2011 consumer price index forecast to 4.7% from 4.3%. It left 2012 unchanged at 3%.

"This is both a sharper and more extended slowdown than we had previously," said Goldman Sachs in a note dated Tuesday. Goldman's changes follow Monday's drop in the HSBC Chinese Purchasing Managers Index; the preliminary number for May came in at 51.1, down from a final 51.8 for April. Traders took the Goldman decision as further reason to sell the euro and Australian dollar, which has plummeted to start the week as European debt worries escalate and concerns develop about China's growth.

Goldman said China's gross domestic product will take a hit of 0.15 to 0.2 percentage point from costlier oil; the bank had earlier its forecast of the average price of brent crude this year between US$113.5 and US$130 a barrel, from its previous US$103 to US$110.

Still, the bank remains overweight on China within the Asia region. Within China's stock market, it said property and banks remain its top sectors.

Reflecting its weaker China outlook and a cut to its U.S. growth forecast two weeks ago, Goldman also pared its growth outlook for the wider region. For Asia excluding Japan, it now expects growth of 7.8% in 2011, down from its earlier forecast of 8.2%. Oil exporter Malaysia is the main exception to its cut-back expectations, Goldman said.

"In 2012, we are again roughly in line with consensus for the region but above consensus on China, Hong Kong and the Philippines and below consensus on India and Thailand," the Goldman note said.

The Australian dollar initially weakened as the Goldman note circulated. But after dropping as far as US$1.0482—from US$1.0656 to start the week—the currency quickly rebounded as dealers judged the downgrade as milder than initially expected.

"The Australian dollar bounced when Goldman Sachs said they were still overweight China," a Sydney-based dealer said.

Demand from China has been the largest factor in Australia's economic growth, which is projected by the country's central bank to exceed 4.5% next year.

China's need for iron ore and copper continues to grow, continuing a decade-long surge that helped Australia avoid a recession even during the global financial crisis. In the 2010 financial year, Australia exported A$46.55 billion worth of goods to China, more than nine times what it sold a decade ago.

Iron ore exports, up more than 25 times in the decade, make up more than half the total by value.

晶電 訂單滿到下季

2011.05.27   【經濟日報╱記者詹惠珠／台北報導】

在照明和戶外看板對四元超高亮度（UHB）LED的需求大增下，晶電（2448）四元超高亮度LED接單爆，接獲美國Cree和日本日亞化訂單，讓晶電紅光LED的60台機台全滿，營運看到第三季。晶電主管表示:「四元已經很久沒有這種狀況」。

四元LED（鋁鎵銦磷 (AlGaInP)四種元素）是紅光LED，應用在家電的背光源、汽車的剎車燈和方向燈，在LED照明開始起飛，暖白色的LED照明，就是要使用藍光LED加上紅光LED，加上近期快速成長的戶外看板，也要使用紅光LED，讓晶電第二季的產能已滿載，跌破公司的眼鏡。

四元LED在歷經2006年走下坡後，開始歷經產業的陶汰，全球能夠生產紅光LED的廠商只剩下台灣的晶電、國際大廠如歐司朗和飛利浦（Philips-Lumileds），但目前晶電的產能是全球最大，且性價比也以晶電最好，且紅光LED完全沒有專利的疑慮，晶電可以行銷全世界，在LED照明崛起，晶電的接單瞬間大爆。

目前晶電230台的MOCVD機台中，有60台是生產四元LED，目前已呈現滿載狀態，一個月約有5億元的營收，而其中有六成，是毛利率較高的超高亮度的紅光LED（UHB），去年UHB的比重只有五成，這是晶電第二季毛利率可以逐月走高的原因之一。

晶電是全球最早推出高壓LED，也是效率最好的廠商，從去年起已成功量產高壓LE，且接獲國際照明大廠的訂單，由於高壓LED其中也要使用紅光LED，因此晶電的高壓LED也動帶紅光LED的需求量。

晶電在藍光LED的競爭對手如Cree和日亞化，並沒有生產紅光LED，尤其Cree近年積極跨入LED照明，因此向晶電採購不少紅光LED。

晶電主管表示，目前接單的狀況不錯，第一季添賺20台藍光LED機台的效益會從第二季、第三季陸續顯現，LED TV的需求逐漸增溫，營運已看到第三季，目前最壞的情況已經過去了，第二季的毛利率逐月上揚，第三季單月營收有機會創下歷史新高。

保利協鑫：太陽能 明年非常好

2011.05.27   【經濟日報╱記者何易霖／台北報導】 

全球太陽能矽晶圓龍頭大陸保利協鑫總裁朱共山昨（26）日表示，太陽能景氣現在已到谷底，第三、四季起逐步回升，明年會非常好，保利協鑫會持續與台廠華立等夥伴擴大合作，共搶商機。

保利協鑫與台灣太陽能廠關係密切，出貨給茂迪、旺能等大廠，華立是其在台獨家代理商。保利協鑫具全球太陽能矽晶圓與多晶矽材料指標地位，是全球多晶矽前三大廠，朱共山看好市場走勢，也為榮化、綠能等台廠後市背書。

朱共山近日隨大陸江蘇鹽城市長李強訪台，接受本報獨家專訪。近期太陽能市場急凍，業界減產、裁員等負面消息不斷，他認為只是短期的「調整期」，並非市場全面性衰退。

朱共山指出，保利協鑫集團早就預料到會有這波景氣調整，但「這並不是壞事」。每次調整期間，業者會加快技術推演腳步，創造最大競爭力，走出調整期後，意味市場商機更大，這可從金融風暴過後，太陽能業2010年普遍大豐收得到印證。

他直言，這波景氣調整「不會太久」，現在已是谷底，第三、四季會逐步回升，明年產業機制回復正常，「市場會非常好」，包括保利協鑫以及台灣廠商在內的具有高度競爭力的企業，都會順利挺過，再次迎接市場榮景。

保利協鑫是近期太陽能市況急凍之後，第一家提出「市場谷底已至」的國際大廠。太陽能族群昨天一掃連日來低迷走勢，與保利協鑫產品最相關的榮化、達能、綠能等，都大漲逾3%；電池廠昱晶、昇陽科也都勁揚，與朱共山看好後市相輝映。

圖／經濟日報提供

鹽城富豪 環保產業主帥

保利協鑫總裁朱共山是大陸江蘇鹽城市人，曾名列大陸「胡潤能源富豪榜」首富。鹽城市近期大力推動綠能與環保產業，朱共山此行與鹽城市長李強訪台，不僅是「活招牌」，更以實際行動，拜會鴻海、英業達、華新集團等台灣大型企業，大力促成兩岸產業交流。

保利協鑫是大陸知名綜合環保能源企業，旗下有18家高效能熱電廠、一家垃圾焚燒發電廠和一家風力發電廠，2007年11月股票在香港交易所掛牌。

保利協鑫在新能源領域布局深入，受到中國投資公司高度矚目。2009年中投斥資港幣55億元（約新台幣200億元），取得保利協鑫二成股權，是中投首度跨足新能源領域，這也讓保利協鑫獲得港股投資界「中投三寶」之一的美譽。

保利協鑫不斷擴張，朱共山身價水漲船高，一度以人民幣97億元（約新台幣432億元）的身價，擠下大陸太陽能電池龍頭無錫尚德總裁施正榮，拿下大陸「2009年胡潤能源富豪榜」首位。

Toshiba Lays Out Agenda

MAY 25, 2011 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By JURO OSAWA
TOKYO—With its once-promising nuclear power business surrounded by difficulties, Toshiba Corp. Tuesday rolled out an aggressive spending plan for the next three years in an attempt to find a viable long-term strategy partly through acquisitions.

Under the plan, the Japanese technology conglomerate said it could spend more than ¥3 trillion (about $37 billion) on capital outlays, research and development as well as mergers and acquisitions over the three years through March 2014, as its improving balance sheet has given it more spending options.

Toshiba plans to spend ¥1.450 trillion on capital expenditure and ¥1.100 trillion on research and development. That compares with its plan a year ago to spend ¥1.3 trillion on capex and ¥1.07 trillion on R&D over three years through March 2013.

In addition, Toshiba said that it now sees room to spend an extra ¥700 billion over the three-year period on various other investments including mergers and acquisitions, bringing its total investment capacity to ¥3.25 trillion.

The company didn't specify how it would pay for the outlays. But the investment plans come on the back of improving earnings. In the just-ended fiscal year, Toshiba swung to a net profit of ¥137.85 billion, compared with a loss of ¥19.74 billion a year earlier, on ¥6.399 trillion in revenue. It was the company's first annual profit in three business years.

A main focus of Toshiba's M&A will be social infrastructure-related businesses, such as advanced power distribution systems and equipment, electric power and railways, said Toshiba President Norio Sasaki at a press briefing.

"In those businesses, M&A deals are very efficient because they allow you to save time" by giving access to a whole new customer base, he said. "We see more potential M&A targets in thermal power and advanced power distribution."

His comments come days after Toshiba unveiled a $2.3 billion deal to buy Landis+Gyr, a Swiss maker of advanced power meters that play a central role in what are known as smart grids—highly efficient power distribution networks controlled using the latest information technology.

The need to strengthen social infrastructure businesses other than nuclear power is much greater now, after Japan's March 11 earthquake and tsunami triggered the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, where some of the reactors were supplied by Toshiba.

"Toshiba can no longer count on a constant growth of its nuclear power business, and that ruins its long-term strategy," said Mizuho Investors Securities analyst Yuichi Ishida.

Although Toshiba is a major global supplier of flash memory chips used widely in mobile gadgets such as smartphones and tablet computers, the company had been hoping that its nuclear power operations would provide it with a more stable and predictable source of revenue that would complement the volatile nature of the chip business.

"At this point, it's not clear whether acquisitions and other steps to strengthen new businesses will be enough to make up for an expected slowdown in nuclear power," Mr. Ishida said.

Toshiba Tuesday warned of uncertainties in its nuclear power operations, saying that its previously targeted orders for 39 reactors, and ¥1 trillion in sales, both expected through March 2016, may be pushed back by several years following Japan's nuclear crisis.

"To be honest, we don't know exactly how long the delay will be," said Mr. Sasaki. He said the prospects over the next few years will depend largely on the outcome of discussions over nuclear power and energy policies around the world. "We will see how the Fukushima case will be reflected in the global nuclear safety regulations," he said.

Toshiba's wide-ranging operations include consumer electronics, semiconductors and electric power. Although the Toshiba brand is usually associated with TVs and laptops, the company's products and services for corporate clients are more globally competitive.

Write to Juro Osawa at juro.osawa@dowjones.com

Toshiba Lays Out Agenda

MAY 25, 2011 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By JURO OSAWA
TOKYO—With its once-promising nuclear power business surrounded by difficulties, Toshiba Corp. Tuesday rolled out an aggressive spending plan for the next three years in an attempt to find a viable long-term strategy partly through acquisitions.

Under the plan, the Japanese technology conglomerate said it could spend more than ¥3 trillion (about $37 billion) on capital outlays, research and development as well as mergers and acquisitions over the three years through March 2014, as its improving balance sheet has given it more spending options.

Toshiba plans to spend ¥1.450 trillion on capital expenditure and ¥1.100 trillion on research and development. That compares with its plan a year ago to spend ¥1.3 trillion on capex and ¥1.07 trillion on R&D over three years through March 2013.

In addition, Toshiba said that it now sees room to spend an extra ¥700 billion over the three-year period on various other investments including mergers and acquisitions, bringing its total investment capacity to ¥3.25 trillion.

The company didn't specify how it would pay for the outlays. But the investment plans come on the back of improving earnings. In the just-ended fiscal year, Toshiba swung to a net profit of ¥137.85 billion, compared with a loss of ¥19.74 billion a year earlier, on ¥6.399 trillion in revenue. It was the company's first annual profit in three business years.

A main focus of Toshiba's M&A will be social infrastructure-related businesses, such as advanced power distribution systems and equipment, electric power and railways, said Toshiba President Norio Sasaki at a press briefing.

"In those businesses, M&A deals are very efficient because they allow you to save time" by giving access to a whole new customer base, he said. "We see more potential M&A targets in thermal power and advanced power distribution."

His comments come days after Toshiba unveiled a $2.3 billion deal to buy Landis+Gyr, a Swiss maker of advanced power meters that play a central role in what are known as smart grids—highly efficient power distribution networks controlled using the latest information technology.

The need to strengthen social infrastructure businesses other than nuclear power is much greater now, after Japan's March 11 earthquake and tsunami triggered the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, where some of the reactors were supplied by Toshiba.

"Toshiba can no longer count on a constant growth of its nuclear power business, and that ruins its long-term strategy," said Mizuho Investors Securities analyst Yuichi Ishida.

Although Toshiba is a major global supplier of flash memory chips used widely in mobile gadgets such as smartphones and tablet computers, the company had been hoping that its nuclear power operations would provide it with a more stable and predictable source of revenue that would complement the volatile nature of the chip business.

"At this point, it's not clear whether acquisitions and other steps to strengthen new businesses will be enough to make up for an expected slowdown in nuclear power," Mr. Ishida said.

Toshiba Tuesday warned of uncertainties in its nuclear power operations, saying that its previously targeted orders for 39 reactors, and ¥1 trillion in sales, both expected through March 2016, may be pushed back by several years following Japan's nuclear crisis.

"To be honest, we don't know exactly how long the delay will be," said Mr. Sasaki. He said the prospects over the next few years will depend largely on the outcome of discussions over nuclear power and energy policies around the world. "We will see how the Fukushima case will be reflected in the global nuclear safety regulations," he said.

Toshiba's wide-ranging operations include consumer electronics, semiconductors and electric power. Although the Toshiba brand is usually associated with TVs and laptops, the company's products and services for corporate clients are more globally competitive.

Write to Juro Osawa at juro.osawa@dowjones.com

亞馬遜平板電腦 廣達代工

2011.05.26   【經濟日報╱記者李珣瑛、王皓正／台北報導】

亞馬遜平板電腦規劃9月上市，其面板是採用元太子公司Hydis的FFS面板；觸控面板則有TPK宸鴻以及和鑫通過驗證；系統組裝則由廣達代工。據傳，亞馬遜平板每月出貨量將高達80萬台，是唯一能與蘋果iPad 2相提並論的平板。

廣達與元太昨天均表示，不評論個別客戶的狀況。法人認為，亞馬遜低價策略，相較摩托羅拉的Xoom、三星的Galaxy Tab等平板，更具吸引力，在內容上也打出與蘋果不同的區隔，可望挹注台灣供應鏈廠不小的業績。

市場人士分析，由於iPad與iPhone的系統組裝，全數由鴻海集團包辦。讓亞馬遜在選擇平板組裝代工廠時，對鴻海心存忌諱。因而刻意避開鴻海，選擇廣達為代工夥伴。

至於廣視角面板的供應商，亞馬遜延續與元太E Ink在電子紙的合作默契，採用Hydis的面板。

另外，觸控面板宸鴻、和鑫都通過亞馬遜的產品驗證，可望打入亞馬遜平板電腦供應鏈。

根據研調機構預估，今年非蘋果平板電腦市場規模約1,500萬台至2,000萬台，以亞馬遜向代工商提出的預期來看，有取得非iPad平板電腦兩成以上市占率的企圖，意味著亞馬遜平板電腦出貨量想像空間不小。

法人推估，亞馬遜平板出貨後，對廣達今年的營收貢獻約為240億至300億元間，並可望同步挹注廣達的獲利向上成長。

亞馬遜從網路書店起家，並挾龐大的內容軟體實力，在電子書閱讀器市場後發先至，以Kindle系列產品一舉奪下全球第一的市占率，贏過率先進入電子書市場的Sony公司。

讓人猜不透的中國鋼鐵產業

2011年 05月 24日   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

中

國是世界上最大的鋼鐵市場﹐但有關該市場的統計體系存在缺陷﹐給全球鋼鐵製造商帶來了一個問題：沒人能確切知道中國到底製造或消費了多少鋼鐵。

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

4月份﹐中國的鋼鐵產量同比增長7.1%。圖為中國安徽省的一家鋼鐵廠。

為此﹐全球鋼鐵產業都對中國保持密切關注。歐洲、北美和亞洲的鋼鐵製造商在一定程度上都是根據中國的需求來增加或減少自己的產量。鋼鐵的價格和庫存水平以及煤和鐵礦石等原材料的購買情況都能體現出中國鋼鐵市場的健康狀況。

但由於沒有關於中國鋼鐵市場的可靠數據﹐計算全球鋼鐵供需水平以及為此應採取怎樣的防備措施都顯得撲朔迷離。

實際上﹐中國部分鋼鐵製造商會毫不遲疑地說﹐他們不明白為何要花時間匯報鋼鐵產量。一個自稱是河北省環西莊村(音)某鋼鐵廠經理的孟(音)姓男子說﹐匯報產量？用不著﹐沒人讓我們匯報產量。當被問及他所在的鋼鐵廠產量時﹐他說該廠年產30萬噸﹐但並不向政府匯報具體產量。

附近還有一個位於新軍屯鎮的鋼鐵廠﹐該廠一名姓溫(音)的經理同樣也說﹐沒必要公佈產量細節﹐這個廠年產40萬噸。他說﹐我們是私營企業﹐向誰匯報啊？

據世界鋼鐵協會(World Steel Association)上週五的估測﹐中國快速發展的鋼鐵產業今年4月的產量同比增加7.1%。該協會是全球鋼鐵產業的統計資料庫。中國去年鋼鐵產量達到創紀錄的6.25億噸﹐2011年的鋼鐵產量有望再次突破歷史紀錄。

世界鋼鐵協會對中國鋼鐵產量的估測是根據中國國家統計局和中國鋼鐵工業協會(China Iron and Steel Association)提供的數據計算得出的﹐而後者則是靠會員自願提交準確的生產數據。中國鋼鐵工業協會稱自己代表了全國約75%的鋼鐵製造商﹐包括武漢鋼鐵股份有限公司和中國最大的鋼鐵企業寶鋼集團有限公司等。

中國鋼鐵工業協會的數據表明﹐中國雖然一直注重鋼鐵生產﹐也注意確保有買家來購買這些鋼鐵﹐但卻對追蹤鋼鐵庫存不怎麼關心。這些數據不包括數百家獨立管理的小型煉鋼廠﹐這些煉鋼廠常常不匯報生產情況﹐或常因為政治和後勤原因匯報得不全面。

總部位於布魯塞爾的世界鋼鐵協會的發言人Soo Jung Kim說﹐有一塊領域﹐我們其實沒有明確的數據來源。儘管如此﹐他仍說﹐世界鋼鐵協會對於自己的統計數據十分有信心。

英國鋼鐵咨詢公司MEPS Ltd.的費什(Peter Fish)說﹐他認為﹐從一定程度上講﹐少報產量是由鋼鐵行業面臨的政治壓力造成的﹐這種壓力就是去年底前滿足關停低效鋼鐵廠這一為時已久的目標。他說﹐名義上講成功地實現了目標﹐但實際上很多低效鋼鐵廠繼續生產﹐通過不上報產量數據而避免關停。

費什說﹐他認為﹐中國國家統計局和中國鋼鐵工業協會公佈的數據將實際產量少算了4,500萬噸﹐相當於2010年公佈產量的約7%至10%。較小的鋼鐵企業可以避免被注意到﹐因為他們有時自行發電﹐而中國的電網系統還不發達。他們用煤炭自行發電﹐生產的大多為低質鋼。

紐約咨詢公司Bradford Research Inc.鋼鐵分析師布拉德福德(Charles Bradford)說﹐沒人知道中國到底有多少家鋼鐵企業。布拉德福德說﹐中國的數據非常不可靠﹐過去的30年﹐他一直更多地關注中國的用電量﹐以幫助累計和衡量鋼鐵產量的可能增幅。他說﹐不知道鋼鐵產量﹐這有可能造成全球市場的動盪。

與銅等賤金屬和貴金屬不同的是﹐鋼鐵不是通過倫敦金屬交易所(London Metals Exchange)這樣的交易所交易。相反﹐鋼鐵的買賣通常是通過鋼鐵廠或作為中間人的服務中心與汽車廠等鋼鐵用戶之間私下協商的交易。

中國儲存的鋼鐵可能遠比其他生產商意識到的要多。如果中國經濟增速放緩﹐大部分儲存的鋼鐵可能會出口﹐可能會造成全球鋼鐵價格下跌。

過去一個月﹐隨著冬季放緩的消退﹐中國鋼鐵價格開始上漲﹐不過價格通常依然比北美和歐洲部分地區低10%到15%。鋼鐵行業的其他領域在密切關注今年夏季中國的鋼鐵價格是否會再次下跌﹐如果下跌則意味著中國的鋼鐵供過於求。

咨詢公司World Steel Dynamics鋼鐵分析師馬庫斯(Peter Marcus)說﹐中國的稅收制度也鼓勵更高的鋼鐵庫存水平。中國對粗鋼出口徵收高稅率﹐以鼓勵把粗鋼保留在國內﹐用粗鋼生產附加值更高的產品﹐比如汽車、家用電器和工程產品。這類制成品再被出口國外。

較小的鋼鐵廠商往往不上報產量﹐他們可能被迫將鋼鐵儲存起來﹔而假如稅率不是那麼高的話﹐這些儲存的鋼鐵本來可能出口國外。

Robert Guy Matthews