2010年11月30日 星期二

自製VCM量能開 大立光明年毛利率將升

2010.11.30 【經濟日報╱記者劉芳妙/台北報導】

大立光董事長陳世卿表示,音圈馬達(VCM)自製量能已經開出,預估最快明年底或後年中達到經濟規模,為大立光營運帶來明顯助益,屆時毛利率也將改善。

大立光今年業績不斷挑戰新高,但因鏡頭所須搭載的音圈馬達仍依賴外購,成為毛利率殺手,為克服障礙,大立光內部不斷朝自製VCM產能突破,希望帶動獲利突破瓶頸。

由於傳統手機鏡頭必須採用機械式音圈馬達搭配,才能夠達到自動對焦效果,虛擬軟體全幅對焦(EDOF)視為是鏡頭影像處理的另一新選擇。隨著EDOF技術升級,加上成本考量,未來EDOF是否取代VCM,不但是光學市場關注的焦點,也攸關光學廠成本結構變化。

他分析,在各種手機鏡頭影像解決方案中,EDOF具低成本優勢,低價化智慧型手機市場中,EDOF 取代音圈馬達成為首選,但高階機種手機仍以VCM為主流。

陳世卿說,EDOF在光學製造方面的難度仍高,涵蓋範圍也較深,以同樣30公分對焦距離來拍,VCM對焦的主題較清楚,景深也較淺,就影像品質來說,VCM無可挑惕。

未來EDOF是否可能成為主流,陳世卿表示,大立光最早切入EDOF,量也做最大,未來若EDOF躍為主流,大立光的技術競爭優勢仍掌握先機。

慧洋多元服務 拚世界級船商

2010.11.30 【經濟日報╱記者丁威/台北報導】

即將在台掛牌上市的慧洋海運,堪稱是海運資優生,董事長藍俊昇創立慧洋海運短短11年,已成為超過60艘散貨船的國際級航商,未來更積極擴充船隊,五年內船舶數達百艘,打造為世界級的「多元化」散貨船公司。

藍俊昇說,慧洋獲利基礎已打好,明後年會持續爆發。

「很多人在外面說我擴充太快,亂買一通,事實上他們不了解,我不是船太多,是船不夠!」藍俊昇說。

成立僅11年的慧洋海運,為何能在這麼短的時間內大規模擴充船隊,船隊數更站上台灣散貨船第一,憑的是什麼?答案很簡單,就是董事長藍俊昇在散貨船的經驗累積。

國際各大航商力捧

慧洋的成功,藍俊昇是關鍵核心人物,在散貨航運界擁有超過30年經驗的他,憑著對船舶的了解、品質的要求、全球散貨網絡分布以及對客戶的服務等,讓日本NYK、三井等超過800艘船的國際重量級航商,願意花錢向慧洋租船,一租長達15年,這一點在海運界罕見。

到今年底前,慧洋船隊規模將達68艘船,2013年增至89艘,五年內會達成100艘的目標。

藍俊昇說,慧洋的船舶分為五種類型,從輕便型、超級極限型、巴拿馬型等都有,傳統上散貨航商只經營一至兩種船舶,但慧洋策略不同,透過多種船型,可將大客戶緊緊抓牢,說穿了,就像在量販店買東西,「一站購足」。

藍俊昇說,經過金融海嘯,很多航商租船漸漸集中化,可能某個客戶他想要同時租輕便型、巴拿馬型,慧洋都可以提供,「船舶多元化」,對慧洋在邁向國際型航商有加乘效果,各種船型「相輔相成」。他說:「現在有很多船商要找我租船,我船根本不夠怎麼租!」

在台灣海運界船隊規模超過百艘的航商,只有貨櫃航商,散貨船商能超過50艘已是「天文數字」;藍俊昇帶領慧洋迎向百艘規模的衝勁,將帶給國內研究散裝航運的投資機構全新的思維。

堅持向日船廠訂造

藍俊昇對於海運,有種外界不懂的「堅持」,說穿了就是對船舶品質的堅持,慧洋超過95%的船是向日本船廠訂造,上半年因日圓大幅升值,慧洋獲利被侵蝕億元,但仍未打退藍俊昇的堅持。

藍俊昇說:「造船是工藝!我做的是全世界的生意,不是那種沿海跑一跑的船;我的船好,租金比市場行情貴一點,客戶還是願意上門。日本造船經驗技術超過100年,沒那麼容易被追過。」

藍俊昇指出,市場很多人笑慧洋到日本買船太貴,但其實這才是我和同業競爭勝出的關鍵,數字會說話,他分析說:「一艘7.9萬噸級的散貨船,大陸造只要3,400萬美元,我到日本大島船廠造7.7萬噸級散貨船,卻要花4,000萬美元,乍看之下我確實虧到。」

但他進一步精算:「我的船,一天燃油僅需32噸,大陸船需要40噸,跑一趟高雄到美國來回72天,我就省下576噸燃油,現在一噸燃油售價520美元,一年跑四趟來回,我就省下快新台幣3,600萬元,足以填補造船成本的損失還倒賺,這還不包括滑油、速度、航行天數所省下的成本。」

另外他說,日本船二手價在市場也比大陸船高,就像台灣二手車市一樣,日系的豐田車價格就是有撐;仔細精算,「你說買日本船哪裡貴?」藍俊昇說。

慧洋深信日本船省成本、效率高,因而在全球造船重心移往南韓、大陸靠攏之際,慧洋仍堅持向日本買船的原因。

而散貨小船市場的經營模式,更讓慧洋將「門檻」築高,外界要跨入,學習曲線可能就超過五年,而這五年,慧洋用持續擴充船隊,讓追兵疲於奔命。

提高門檻甩開追兵

藍俊昇認為,他進入的是利基型市場,而且從2008年至2013年,慧洋進行五年擴充計畫,已為未來慧洋獲利打下良好的基礎,明年將進入收成期,未來他要將慧洋將打造成為「全方位」多元散貨船公司,要讓慧洋的船持續航行到全世界。



【2010/11/30 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/

2010年11月28日 星期日

Sony增購台灣面板

2010.11.29 【經濟日報╱編譯何信彰/綜合外電】

日本讀賣新聞報導,鑒於經營環境日益艱困,原本有意增持與夏普合資液晶面板廠股權的Sony公司已決定喊停,Sony高層表示將轉而擴大對台廠的採購。

經濟日報/提供

Sony與夏普在日本大阪合資設立的液晶面板廠,Sony原本有意在明年4月前把持股比率從7%大幅提高到34%,以加強介入管理。

不過,日圓可能持續升值,加上全球電視機的銷售遲緩,迫使Sony放棄這項計畫。

讀賣新聞報導,Sony高層27日說,將轉向價格比夏普低的台廠採購液晶面板,採購比率將從目前的30%拉高至50%。

一般預料,Sony的電視業務部門在截至2011年3月的會計年度將出現虧損,雖然Sony仍維持與夏普合資廠7%的持股,但會檢討面板採購計畫。

Sony原本預期平面電視市場會快速成長,為確保面板貨源穩定,而與夏普於2009年7月達成協定,選定夏普大阪廠作為合資廠房,同年10月投產。

這座合資廠是全球最大面板廠之一,占地127萬平方公尺,每年可產130萬片42吋面板,產能依持股比率供應雙方。

分析師指出,雖然新興市場對平面電視的需求仍在增加,但當地的削價競爭加劇,在這種情況下,Sony發現得把重心從與夏普的合資廠轉向採購台灣的低價面板。

分析師表示,Sony此次變心顯示液晶面板生產基地已加速從日本移向海外,也可能對夏普的經營策略產生重大影響。

分析師說,身為日本面板製造龍頭的夏普,顯然也陷入與海外製造商競爭的困境,特別是台灣廠商,進而加深市場對日本產業空洞化的擔憂。今年第三季,南韓和台灣製造商生產的面板囊括全球八成市場,夏普只占10%左右。

Singapore Pledges Property-Bubble Prevention

NOVEMBER 25, 2010, 6:01 P.M. ET By SAM HOLMES THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


SINGAPORE—The Singapore government plans to pump more land into the city-state's private residential property market in the first half of next year to help temper building price pressures.

The continuation of the land-supply program seen in the second half of this year comes amid signs the government remains concerned about the formation of a housing bubble despite three rounds of measures to curb speculative activity since September 2009. Singapore's home-property prices rose more than 14% in the third quarter of this year from the fourth quarter of last year, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

The Singapore government's attempts to address property-price pressures follow recent measures by regulators in China and Hong Kong, as a number of Asian markets see a surge in home prices due in part to massive investment flows into the region.

The government in late August unveiled its third set of measures in a year to curb speculative activity in the housing market, which included increasing the size of the down payment required to secure a second home loan and extending the period an owner must hold a property to avoid paying a stamp duty when selling it. Thursday's move suggests Singapore may not be far from imposing its fourth round of policies to knock the heat out of the market.

Bloomberg News

A condominium complex under construction in Singapore earlier this year

The URA said it will place 17 residential sites on its confirmed list and 13 sites on its reserve list in its land-sales program for the first half of next year. Reserve sites are tendered for sale only when a bidder makes an offer for the parcel that meets the government's sales criteria.

The authority said the program's confirmed list of sites could yield about 8,125 residential units, roughly in line with the record 8,135 units from the confirmed list in the second half of 2010.

However, the total potential number of units from both the confirmed and reserve residential list in the first half of 2011 is a record 14,300, up from 13,900 units in the second half.

"The government will continue to monitor the property market closely and is prepared to inject even more supply of private housing should demand continue to be strong," the government said in a statement Thursday.

The planned supply will also include five commercial sites, one "white" site and eight hotel sites. White sites allow developers to build properties for a range of uses.

The sales program comes shortly after the Monetary Authority of Singapore said in its annual Financial Stability Review Thursday that the government would take steps to temper exuberance in the property market and pre-empt speculative bubbles if needed.

"Current global conditions of flush liquidity and low interest rates may lead to upward pressures on domestic asset prices," the central bank said in its report.

The Singapore government's aggressive land-sales program "tells you the government expects no let-up in the residential sector," UBS analyst Michael Lim said.

"I think this is clearly a signal of the government's resolve to control price momentum in this sector."

Nomura analyst Sai Min Chow said new measures to cool sentiment could include tweaks to current policies, such as an increase in the down payment required for second mortgages or possibly introducing a holding-period tax, which would tax the gains made on the sale of properties within three years of purchase.

Mr. Sai said the government may look to introduce more cooling measures in its 2011 budget in February, which will follow the release of private property price data for the fourth quarter of 2010 in January.

—Gaurav Raghuvanshi contributed to this article.

2010年11月22日 星期一

Hong Kong Imposes More Property Curbs

NOVEMBER 19, 2010 By CHESTER YUNG THE ASIA WALL STREET JOURNAL

HONG KONG—Hong Kong's government on Friday took some of its toughest measures yet to cool the city's red-hot real-estate market by significantly raising transaction costs for speculators.

Financial Secretary John Tsang said the moves, which include additional stamp duties for properties sold within two years of purchase as well as lower mortgage ratios, underscore the government's commitment to ensuring stability in Hong Kong's property market as apartment prices continue to soar amid ample liquidity and rock-bottom interest rates.

Resident buildings under construction are seen at Tseung Kwan O district in Hong Kong, Nov. 8, 2010.

Property prices are now near the peak they reached before the last property bubble in 1997, with average home prices up 15% between January and September, following a 30% jump in 2009. The government has over the past year introduced a number of cooling measures, such as increasing land supply and temporarily excluding the use of real-estate purchases in an investment immigration program, but has achieved mixed results.

"The unusual surge in flat prices has attracted speculators. This, coupled with quantitative easing measures, has distorted the market expectation regarding inflation and asset prices," said Mr. Tsang. "Unscrupulous speculators may take advantage of the heated market sentiments to lure people into buying beyond their means."

Mr. Tsang said increases in asset prices and overheated speculative activities bring a "heightened risk of property bubbles forming," justifying the need for additional measures to rein in the private housing market.

He added that he will launch more measures if necessary to cool the property market.

Among the measures announced Friday are additional stamp duties, or property transaction taxes, on properties sold within two years of their purchase.

If a property is re-sold within six months, the government will levy a charge of 15% of the transaction price that is jointly payable by both the buyer and seller. The government will impose a 10% charge for apartments sold between six and 12 months of their purchase, and a 5% charge for those sold between 12 months and 24 months of purchase.

The new duties, which take effect Saturday, are in addition to existing stamp duties of as much as 4.25% of property sales prices.

"This is the toughest move ever as compared with the previous measures that will likely curb speculation effectively in the short-to-medium term," said Kevin Lai, a senior economist at Daiwa Capital Markets.

To further contain speculation and lending in the property sector, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on Friday told banks to lower the ceiling on mortgages for residential properties valued at 12 million Hong Kong dollars (US$1.55 million) and higher to 50% of the property's value from 60%, with immediate effect.

The mortgage ratio for residential properties valued between HK$8 million and HK$12 million will also be cut 10 percentage points to 60%, HKMA Chief Executive Norman Chan said. The ratio for properties valued below HK$8 million will remain unchanged at 70%.

Nomura analyst Paul Louie said the government's measures were "very significant" and "much harsher and more punitive than the market had expected."

He said the tougher rules could result in a 40% drop in transaction volumes of private secondary apartments and, with many speculators out of the picture, stabilize prices in the near term.

Donna Kwok, greater China economist at HSBC, said Hong Kong authorities are limited to administrative measures to counter the inflationary risk prompted by the latest round of quantitative monetary policy easing proposed by the U.S. Federal Reserve this month. "The [government] can't erect capital controls without jeopardizing the stability of its financial sector, which is pinned upon the free movement of capital and drives one quarter of its economy," she said.

"This is the most creative and carefully crafted move from the HK authorities since 2009 for tinkering with demand-side factors in the property market, because the scope of motive has been widened," Ms. Kwok added. "As a result, this latest set of measures will likely have the biggest and most lasting impact that we've seen yet for cooling Hong Kong property prices."

The latest property-cooling measures come after the International Monetary Fund on Thursday urged the Hong Kong government to take further action on the real-estate market if asset-price inflation continues. The IMF said it sees increasing risk of a property bubble in Hong Kong due to continued liquidity inflows and low interest rates coupled with tight housing supply.

However, James Cheung, a director at Centaline Surveyors, said that while the increased stamp duty will likely have an immediate effect on speculation, the longer-term impact on prices is less clear given the market practice of passing taxes on to the buyer.

"If demand remains strong, owners who have held their properties for over two years may have room to increase the price, as there will be higher demand for their property, which is not subject to the high taxes," Mr. Cheung said.

—Kate O'Keeffe, Fiona Law and Shai Oster contributed to this article.

2010年11月21日 星期日

德儀擴廠說衝擊還太早 台廠加速轉進8吋製程備戰

2010/11/20 17:39 鉅亨網 記者蔡宗憲 台

類比IC龍頭德儀(TI)( (US-TXN) )台灣區總經理陳建村正式出面對外澄清,德儀新擴充的12吋廠,以及中國成都與日本的 8 吋廠房將全用做類比IC產品,也使得多數市場觀點認為,德儀用12吋產能生產類比IC產品,恐對整體產業價格造成不小壓力,也將衝擊明年台灣類比IC設計公司的獲利動能。

不過,台灣類比IC廠當然不會坐以待斃,近年便開始積極將新產品轉換至 8 吋製程投產,以維持毛利率水位, 目前以致新 (8081) 進度最為超前, 8 吋投片量占比達 3 成之高,今年毛利率走勢也相對產業平均持穩不少,第1-3季毛利率走穩在35.6%附近水位,第 4 季受匯率影響,預估約較第 3 季微幅下滑,但在 8 吋產能的支撐下,幅度也不會太多。

相對致新的領先,立錡 (6286) 轉換 8 吋製程動作較慢,營收占比僅達近 1 成水位附近,今年毛利率波動幅度較大,今年第1-3季為37.7%、37.86%與38.46%,第 4 季由於有新台幣升值及淡季影響,預估將下滑至35-38%,表現略遜致新一些。

除了轉換製程外,事實上業者出面喊話,認為不該單純以德儀擴產就看衰台灣類比IC廠的競爭力;首先,由於類比IC產品中的電源管理IC牽涉電壓傳送的問題,因此用12吋製程恐因晶片面積過小,反而對產品不利,也因此有不少業者質疑德儀以12吋製程生產電源管理IC產品的效益;業者認為,從德儀進駐12吋廠的人員多以數位IC為主來看,極可能未來將以類比數位混合訊號IC為主,而非專攻台廠專注的電源管理IC產品。

再者,以競爭角度來看,也是立錡不只一次對外解釋的概念,就營收規模而言,立錡與致新的年營收規模總合約僅在100-150億元間左右,占全球類比IC產值比重小之又小,相對德儀動輒13-14%市占率而言,德儀沒有理由為打立錡與致新而大費周章擴廠,甚至做效益不如 8 吋廠投片的產品;因此有業者認為,德儀擴廠對產業價格確實會有競爭壓力,不過還要看生產的產品為何,短期可以預見的是,首波受衝擊的廠商將是如Intersil與Maxim這些大規模IC設計公司,規模小的業者反而安全。

另外就是回到類比IC產業的性質,以龍頭廠德儀市占率僅有13-14%來看,就可以知道這個產業是由眾多廠商組合而成,也因類比IC產品範圍相當廣泛,因此各廠皆以各自擅長的領域著墨,若產品類別不同,實際上受德儀的衝擊將會更小。

品牌三張王牌:中國、手機、再造Ⅲ

  • 2010-10-05
  • 數位時代 第197期 文 編部 採訪.撰文/趙荻瑗

宏碁去年首度奪下台灣國際品牌價值第一名,今年又以新台幣447.06億元的品牌價值,蟬聯冠軍寶座。為了突破自我,宏碁啟動「類再造」,積極發展智慧型手機,更租下方正科技的品牌使用權,向PC產業投下一顆震撼彈!

五月二十七日,北京國際記者會上,宏碁全球執行長蔣凡可.蘭奇(Gianfranco Lanci)與方正集團首席執行官李友簽下一紙「合作意向書」。兩個月後,宏碁發布新聞稿公告,未來七年內,將以六千九百萬美元(約新台幣二十二億元)「租」下「Founder PC」的品牌使用權。

「今天,我們將更向前邁進一步!」在一封向員工致敬的信中,宏碁董事長王振堂興蘭奇共同宣布合作協議,宏碁將兼併方正集團旗下PC業務子公司方正科技的業務團隊,而方正集團也將成為宏碁在中國的主要銷售通路和售後服務夥伴,「這將是一個雙贏互補的合作關係。」

王振堂表示,過去在中國市場排名第六的宏碁,今年在中國營收目標將挑戰十五億美元,市占率站上一○%,明年營收目標提升至二十五億美元,成為中國前三大PC品牌。

機會一:搭上中國成長動能「未來PC市場成長動能,主要來自中國和其他新興市場,」研究機構顧能(Gartner)終端運算市場資深分析師蔡惠芬表示,二○○九年中國PC市場規模約五千六百四十萬台,到了一○年將成長到六千八百九十萬台,年成長率高達二二%,遠高於西歐、美國等成熟市場。

「宏方配」之後,宏碁掌握了方正在四到六級城市的通路,以及在桌上型電腦的優勢,等於是打通中國市場的任督二脈。

蔡惠芬解釋,過去宏碁在中國的代理商是英邁(Ingram Micro)和聯強,通路主要在一到三級城市,現在加入了方正四到六級城市的通路,布局更加完整。再來,中國的桌上型電腦(DT)銷售表現優於筆記型電腦(NB),而方正的銷售強項就是桌上型電腦,剛好補強了宏碁NB強、DT弱的缺陷。根據顧能調查,宏碁○九年全球銷售量是三千九百七十萬台,加上方正的三百五十萬台,只達到四千三百二十萬台的規模,距離惠普(HP)的五千八百九十萬台還有一段差距。

儘管「宏方配」短期內不會直接動搖到惠普的一哥地位,「但是宏碁抓到成長幅度最大的中國市場,並且靠著方正補足它的弱點、強化它的強項,後面的效果會慢慢顯現出來,」蔡惠芬說。

場景一換,來到宏碁在台北的智慧型手機發表會,這是宏碁全球副總裁暨台灣營運總部總經理林顯郎接下手機業務後,第一場的記者會處女秀。

機會二:擁抱開放陣營宏碁進軍智慧型手機市場的策略,就是擁抱以Google為首的「開放陣營」,力抗蘋果(Apple)大軍。「選擇Android作業系統是站對邊!宏碁要繼續搭順風車,才能跑得更快,」林顯郎分析,雖然iPhone銷售表現亮眼,但是市場不可能被單一作業系統獨占,Android平台雖然起步較慢,可是投入廠商最多,集結眾人的智慧,未來成長力道可期。

「你叫宏碁賣牛肉麵,一定沒有生意,但是做這種小小筆電(智慧型手機),我們肯定有機會!」林顯郎表示,雖然宏碁較晚切入手機市場,但是累積三十多年電腦銷售經驗,擁有集團採購優勢,成本具有競爭力。今年宏碁全球手機出貨目標將挑戰兩百到三百萬支,明年還要上看五百萬大關。

顧能行動通訊資深分析師呂俊寬肯定押寶Android平台的策略,但是也點出目前產品「沒亮點」的問題。「如果拿PC的觀念來做手機,就會比較辛苦,」呂俊寬表示,在高階手機市場只強調「功能」是不夠的,必須找出「應用」,告訴消費者:「我們的產品能提供什麼使用經驗?」

機會三:啟動「類再造」蘋果不只席捲智慧型手機市場,也刺激PC產業發生質變。宏碁創辦人施振榮形容蘋果是「變種病毒」,跳脫傳統PC格局,走的是「革命」路線,而宏碁則是採取「演化」方式。
回顧一九九二年、二○○○年的企業再造,換來宏碁業績大步邁進。施振榮建議,距離上次企業再造已經十年,宏碁應該啟動第三波的「類再造」,在現今的硬體規模優勢之下,增添更多附加價值,才能突破自我極限,「未來三十年的努力,今天必須做決定!」

2010年11月20日 星期六

精元 前十月每股賺3.76元

2010.11.20 【經濟日報╱記者劉芳妙/台北報導】

NB鍵盤大廠精元電腦(2387)前十月合併營收126.13億元,較去年同期成長17.51%,法人估算,10月單月稅前盈餘約1.3億,每股盈餘0.35元,累計前十月稅前盈餘14.23億元,年增逾四成,累計每股盈餘約3.76元。

精元10月NB鍵盤出貨量逾610萬片,較上月減少11%,單月合併營收11.96億元,月減8.13%,累計前十月NB鍵盤出貨量近6,000萬片,年增率24%。

受到NB產業旺季不旺影響,精元10月出貨狀況雖維持在高檔,但11月客戶拉貨的態度並不積極,內部估計,依近期出貨推估,單月出貨量將略低於上月,估計第四季出貨量會略低於上季,但全年出貨量仍有兩成的成長力道,可望突破7,000萬片大關。

受惠於大陸各生產據點展開綜效,精元累計合併營收在今年8月突破百億元大關,預估全年營收及NB鍵盤出貨量將同步攀上歷史新高紀錄。精元電腦前三季稅後純益12.01億元,年增58.65%,每股稅後純益3.35元。

近日精元股價明顯拉回修正,昨(19)日以平盤價31元作收。


2010年11月19日 星期五

蘋果新單到 宸鴻達虹趕擴產

2010.11.20 【經濟日報╱記者李珣瑛/新竹報導】

蘋果兩大觸控面板供應商TPK宸鴻及達虹趕在年底前加碼擴產,TPK宸鴻將加碼2.19億美元(約合新台幣66.5億元),達虹辦理20億元現金增資擴產,市場解讀蘋果觸控面板新單落袋,明年成長可期。

宸鴻與達虹昨(19)日同時宣布擴產計畫,將分別透過加碼2.19億美元(約合新台幣66.5億元),以及辦理20億元現金增資擴產。達虹是友達集團旗下觸控面板廠,生產觸控感測器,並交貨予TPK宸鴻,間接打入蘋果觸控面板供應鏈,兩家公司在業務上有密切的合作關係。

據了解,蘋果已與主要供應商完成明年新訂單議約,觸控面板仍維持外掛式的解決方案,並未採用各大廠積極研發的內嵌式二合一解決方案,主要是訊號干擾及製程良率的問題,尚未解決。

蘋果iPhone與iPad熱賣,觸控面板廠宸鴻受惠最深。根據宸鴻公開說明書公告的客戶組合,今年前三季A公司(指蘋果)占比重達70%,要比去年度的46%大幅提升。

宸鴻表示,董事會昨天決議,在TPK開曼控股公司之下,以2,200萬美元(約新台幣6.68億元)新設100%持有的香港公司RUSL,對大陸展開投資。

宸鴻並將把股票回台第一上市增資所募集的2.19億美元,分別以增資、借款方式,用來為新設香港子公司、大陸孫公司的擴產及充實營運資金。

宸鴻今年資本支出約80億至90億元,前三季已完成68億元投資。根據宸鴻的擴產規劃,3.5吋玻璃觸控面板將月產700萬片,拉升43%到1,000萬片規模;10吋玻璃觸控面板將月產120萬片,增加1.5倍到月產300萬片的規模。

另外,3.5吋薄膜觸控面板的產能,則是由月產120萬片倍增到300萬片。一般預料,宸鴻新增的玻璃觸控面板產能,應是針對蘋果的需求擴產。

友達旗下的觸控面板廠達虹,董事會昨天通過2億股的現金增資案,暫訂每股發行價格18元,預計募集36億元的資金,用做新建廠房及投資機器設備,達虹昨天興櫃參考價21.55元,下跌0.05元。

達虹原是彩色濾光片的專業製造廠,近年來因應觸控面板需求暢旺,積極轉型為觸控面板廠。到今年10月為止,達虹觸控面板產品營收占比已達八成,彩色濾光片產品營收只剩20%。

達虹投入3.5代及4.5代二條生產線,生產觸控感測器,並交貨予TPK宸鴻,間接打入蘋果觸控面板供應鏈。達虹還規劃在中科興建5代新產線,規劃於2012年投產。

圖/經濟日報提供

2010年11月18日 星期四

德儀、旺宏擴產 欣銓接單添動能

2010.11.18 【經濟日報╱記者簡永祥/台北報導】

德儀(TI)宣布新增三座晶圓廠全部鎖定類比IC,讓德儀在台主要晶圓測試廠欣銓(3264)成為最大受惠者,明年訂單增添強勁動能,法人建議可趁第四季淡季逢低布局。

德儀一直是欣銓最大客戶,今年欣銓即因德儀等海外客戶訂單持續成長,營收和獲利締造佳績。欣銓前三季每股稅後純益2.5元,第四季進入淡季,預估營收約下滑5%,但預估全年每股純益仍可達到3.1元,為近四年來新高。

法人認為,德儀主動宣布新增的晶圓廠(日本福島、美國德州及中國成都)將全數以類比IC為主,讓欣銓明年訂單動能更強,加上欣銓另一客戶旺宏(2337)的晶圓五廠明年也將大幅增加產能,也給欣銓很大的利基。


IMF to Hong Kong: Watch Housing Prices

NOVEMBER 18, 2010 Alex Frangos from the Wall Street Journal

If Hong Kong isn’t careful, its economy could be set for another bout of “protracted and painful” deflation and a crash in housing prices like it saw in the late 1990s and early 2000s.

Zuma Press
Hong Kong has some of the world’s highest housing prices.

That’s the negative scenario painted by the International Monetary Fund in its annual assessment of Hong Kong’s economy, known by IMF geeks as an “Article IV consultation.”

Right now, Hong Kong’s economy is humming along; the IMF predicts GDP growth of 6.75% this year and 5% to 5.5% in 2011. But inflationary forces are building, with consumer prices likely to be rising at a 5% clip by the end of 2011. Housing prices have shot up at an annual 20% rate the past two years, raising the fear of a dangerous bubble that could eventually pop.

The IMF thinks the housing-price rises are manageable and in line with fundamentals—so far. Home prices don’t reflect “misalignment or disequilibrium,” said Nigel Chalk, senior adviser for Asia at the IMF. Tight land supply, low interest rates, rising incomes and rising rents all justify the increase in housing prices, he said.

But things could get ugly down the road for Hong Kong should housing prices and inflation continue to move higher and get out of equilibrium, as they did in the late 1990s.

Hong Kong’s fixed exchange rate system with the U.S. dollar means Hong Kong essentially imports the interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, currently very low. In other words, Hong Kong can’t raise interest rates to counter a housing bubble and inflation.

“Hong Kong has monetary policy determined by the U.S. in an economy growing much much faster than the U.S.,” said Mr. Chalk.

“Our concern isn’t now, it’s a prospective concern,” he explained. The worry is that down the line, the current situation could reverse, with a slowing economy (and weaker housing market) in Hong Kong and China but healthy growth in the U.S. The Fed would raise U.S. interest rates, and Hong Kong would find itself with an uncomfortable combination of dropping home prices and rising interest rates.

“You could end up where the property market starts to deflate, prices going down, but payments on household mortgages are going up,” Mr. Chalk said. “It becomes harder to pay your mortgage on an asset that has less value.”

Hong Kong experienced deflation and a shrinking economy following the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s and the SARS epidemic of 2003. Housing prices dropped more than 60% from 1997 to 2003 before finally recovering. On average, housing prices in Hong Kong are still below the 1997 peak.

The IMF says failing to prevent a fast rise in prices now will sting later. “Depending on the amplitude of the upswing, the resulting downturn could prove both protracted and painful,” the article IV document says.

How to curb prices? Without the power of the interest rate, Hong Kong has to resort to other regulatory measures, such as increasing the portion of the home price that buyers have to pony up in cash. Hong Kong has done that already several times in the past year, but prices have just kept marching higher. The government has also announced it would increase the supply of houses by making more government land available to developers.

The IMF endorsed these moves, and thinks Hong Kong will have to do even more, such as lifting taxes on property transactions and investments. Mr. Chalk said “there’s a scope to expand those,” if prices continue to rise.

But even all these “macroprudential” measures might not be enough to counter the lack of interest-rate control. They may “at best only be able to mitigate the amplitude of the current upswing,” the report says.

Separately, on Hong Kong’s recently passed a minimum wage-law, Mr. Chalk said the IMF supports the initiative “as it’s desirable to have some protection for very-low-wage workers.” But he added that the law bears watching, and Hong Kongers should be prepared for the minimum wage to even fall, should the economy weaken.

“Our principal concern is to make sure it doesn’t hamper the flexibility of labor markets in Hong Kong,” he said. The government should closely monitor the level of the wage and let it “adjust as economic circumstances adjust, so that it could move up and down.”

2010年11月17日 星期三

碩禾:明年拚全球市占3成

  • 2010-11-17
  • 工商時報
  • 【記者謝艾莉/台北報導】

太陽能導電漿廠碩禾今年鋁漿出貨量為1,500-2,000公噸,董事長陳繼仁指出,明年出貨量有機會達3,000噸,年成長達50%,挑戰全球市占率3成的成績。法人預估,碩禾今年每股稅後盈餘為36.1元,明年有機會挑戰50元關卡,爭台股獲利王的寶座。

 陳繼仁指出,以今年全球太陽能電池廠裝機量15GW(10億瓦)來看,鋁漿需求7,000公噸,今年碩禾在全球的市占率超過20%、出貨量約1,500-2,000公噸。

 明年各家市調機構預估,全球太陽能市場穩定成長2-3成,若太陽能電池裝機量為20GW、鋁漿需求量將達1萬公噸。陳繼仁表示,以碩禾每個月出貨量約250公噸來看,年出貨量有機會達3,000公噸。

 今年碩禾已經穩坐全球第二大鋁漿供應商,擠進全球前5大的導電漿廠,除了高達95%的鋁漿外,碩禾今年跨入門檻更高的正銀與背銀市場。陳繼仁指出,目前背銀已經有6家客戶量產,今年占營收比重約5%,明年目標達2成。

 碩禾在中國市占率僅次於由太陽能廠尚德扶持的儒興,中國與歐洲也是碩禾未來布局的重點,碩禾在中國正銀產品已經送樣,儒興沒有的背銀產品,碩禾也已有客戶量產。

 陳繼仁預估未來中國市場占營收比重將超越台灣,在中國市占率也將從今年的2-3成,拉高至3-4成。

 近期聯電與中釉合資的太陽能導電漿廠致嘉、友達集團的達方、長興化工等也對太陽能導電漿市場躍躍欲試,對於更多對手加入,陳繼仁表示,「有些廠商跟我們同一時間布局導電漿市場,但是目前只有碩禾產品進入大量量產。」

 對於產品價格壓力,陳繼仁也指出,客戶對於材料的要求只會越來越多,以碩禾布局這3年多觀察,這3年來售價一直往下調,鋁漿又是相當客製化的產品,碩禾的優勢就是替客戶提升太陽能電池的轉換效率。

陳繼仁:沒導電漿 太陽能只是板子

  • 2010-11-17
  • 工商時報
  • 【記者謝艾莉/台北報導】

碩禾導電漿為台廠中第一個通過國際認證並量產的公司,挾著高毛利表現,明(18)日將以500元高價掛牌,但仍有部分投資者對導電漿相當陌生,碩禾董事長陳繼仁解釋,「導電漿就是太陽電池的開關,沒有導電漿,太陽能只是一塊板子,無法發揮作用。」

 500元高價股當中,手機品牌廠宏達電、鏡頭廠大立光或觸控面板的TPK宸鴻都是各界相當熟悉的消費性電子相關產品、零組件,但提到導電漿,多數投資者都不太瞭解,甚至還有投資者把碩禾和華碩的代工廠和碩搞混。

 導電漿是太陽能電池的重要材料,約占太陽能電池片總生產成本的10%,以一片6吋的太陽能電池來說,就需要1.5克的鋁漿、0.1克的背銀及0.2克的正銀。

 陳繼仁解釋,陽光照射在太陽能板上後,導電漿的作用就是將電流導引出來,「就好像一條高速公路,北上與南下的車道如同太陽能板上的正極與負極的電子與電流,碩禾的導電漿就是交流道的角色,把電導引出來,替客戶提升太陽能板的轉換效率。」

 目前碩禾主要競爭對手杜邦主打銀漿市場,在正銀漿市占率5成以上、背銀漿市占達7成,但杜邦在碩禾主要的鋁漿市場並無太大著墨。

 陳繼仁表示,正銀漿幾乎是寡占市場,主要的廠商為外商杜邦和賀利氏,若碩禾正銀產品無法做到效率和品質與前二大廠競爭,正銀漿對碩禾營收貢獻有限。

2010年11月16日 星期二

德儀擴建3座新廠 全以類比IC產品為主

2010/11/16 17:20 鉅亨網 記者蔡宗憲 台北

類比IC龍頭大廠德儀(TI)( (US-TXN) )台灣區總經理陳建村今(16)日表示,德儀新擴充的三座(包含德州12吋晶圓新廠、日本新廠與中國成都廠)新廠產能將全以類比IC產品為主,12吋廠明年首季就會有產品問世,至於中國成都新廠未來將以MOSFET產品為主,同樣在明年首季量產。

針對市場盛傳德儀新擴充的德州12吋廠(簡稱RFAB),以及今年新併購的日本Spansion廠房與中國成都新廠產能將不以類比為主,陳建村表示屬於市場謠言,他強調德儀營收有超過40%以上為類比IC產品,沒有理由擴充的新廠產能以數位產品為主。

陳建村表示,三座新廠除了將以類比IC為主外,混合訊號IC也逐漸成為市場上的主流,因此未來也不排除推出相關產品,12吋新廠將在今年底至明年首季就會有首顆IC量產出貨,至於近日公布購買的上海成芯半導體 8 吋晶圓廠房,未來大多數的產品將以MOSFET IC為主,預計明年首季量產。

陳建村說,目前產能供應與市場需求仍約有10%的差距,加上新廠購買成本低廉,因此德儀購買新廠提升產能,除能藉此提高德儀產能的利用彈性,未來即使景氣有所動盪,德儀將更能因此有所因應;另外就是因德儀財務狀況相當健全,因此即便未來半導體需求走緩,德儀仍有實力度過。

陳建村強調,德儀擴充新廠產能後,下一個目標將以提升市占率為主,陳建村強調,目前德儀在類比IC領域的市占率約13-14%左右,雖然在市場屬於龍頭地位,不過仍有相當大的成長空間,接下來德儀還將積極佈局包含太陽能相關的電源管理IC產品,以及醫療與安全監控相關IC產品;因此陳建村說,初期 3 個新廠區的產能皆將先使用50%,保留其餘50%用於未來擴展業務範圍所用,顯示德儀擴充業務版圖。

德儀是在2009年啟用位於德州Richardson的12吋晶圓製造廠,該晶圓廠簡稱RFAB,是全球唯一使用300mm矽晶圓製造類比晶片的生產設備,預計今年底完成設備建置,每年產出的類比IC總值將超過10億美元;另外德儀也在今年向日本Spansion買下位在日本會津若松市的晶圓代工廠,其中一座正在營運得將以 8 吋為主,產值同樣超過10億美元。

而德儀近期也買下中國成芯半導體 8 吋晶圓製造廠,未來將以MOSFET產品為主,目前1.1萬平方公尺生產面積,可提供每年超過10億美元的營收規模。

宏碁軟硬通吃 搶百萬用戶

2010.11.17 【經濟日報╱記者 曾仁凱】

宏碁昨天在台灣推出新款桌上型電腦Revo RL100,內建Clear.fi軟體,在歐、美地區也同步上線。

宏碁台灣區總經理林顯郎形容,Clear.fi如同是「家裡面的雲端」,可以透過無線網路,串聯家中所有具DLNA(數位家庭聯盟)認證的3C產品,讓電腦和手機內的音樂、照片、影片等數位內容,能夠簡單搜尋、儲存與分享。

林顯郎說,未來宏碁所有出貨的筆記型電腦、桌上型電腦、和智慧型手機等終端裝置,都將內建Clear.fi功能。

法人分析,以明年宏碁筆電出貨量目標約5,000萬台、桌機約1,500萬台、手機500萬台,合計出貨的終端裝置約7,000萬台,其中只要一至兩成消費者採用,明年底Clear.fi會員數挑戰100萬戶不是夢。

宏碁推出Clear.fi,有點類似蘋果的iTunes,希望建立一套專屬的多媒體平台,「軟硬兼施」,因為硬體的利潤愈來愈難賺,軟體才是未來獲利成長的重心,還可藉此提高客戶的黏著度。

之前,華碩也推出類似概念的ASUS@Vibe平台,內含音樂、遊戲、網路電台、線上學習課程等各式數位內容服務,目前已在台灣、中國大陸、美國、德國等多個國家上線。

宏碁創辦人施振榮曾表示,宏碁即將成為全球NB龍頭,必須開始思考下一個目標。宏碁每年賣出這麼多的硬體裝置,應該想辦法在這些裝置上,提供更多的軟體、服務等附加價值,才能創造出新的商機。

他認為,類似蘋果以iTunes、App store 應用程式服務,把科技硬體和服務串連起來,將是宏碁第三波「類再造」的重要基調。宏碁曾歷經「天蠶變」組織瘦身,及與緯創的品牌和代工分割兩次再造,Clear.fi預期是宏碁第三波類再造的起點。

宏碁最近動作不斷,除了昨天新推出的「Clear.fi」,月底也準備在美國紐約盛大發表首款平板電腦,以迎戰蘋果iPad。

外資看好新產品、新策略將為宏碁營運注入成長動能,昨天大力加碼宏碁6,070 張,是外資買超第五大,推升股價大漲2.4元,終場收在91.9元。

巨騰 傳獲索尼新單

2010.11.17 【經濟日報╱記者李立達/台北報導】

筆記型電腦(NB)塑膠機殼龍頭巨騰(9136)傳獲得索尼新單,法人指出,由於日圓升值,索尼加速零組件釋單,高階NB的碳纖機殼擬全數委由巨騰代工。

巨騰為全球最大NB塑膠機殼廠,市占率高達35%至40%,近年積極開拓鎂鋁金屬與多元材質機殼,獲得客戶認同;巨騰的奈米壓印(NIL)鋁沖壓機殼,也將於明年第二季大量出貨。

巨騰昨(16)日指出,不對單一客戶表示意見,僅表示除塑膠機殼外,包括鎂鋁金屬及多元材質機殼均獲客戶認同,並逐步出貨。

NB機殼類股昨天股價漲跌互見,鴻準(2354)漲幅達2.66%、收100.5元;巨騰收平盤18.8元;可成跌0.1元、收81元。

巨騰受NB下半年旺季不旺影響,毛利率表現不如預期,上半年毛利率從去年的17.8%滑落至16.8%,法人評估,明年碳纖與奈米壓印機殼出貨拉升後,毛利率可望回升。

巨騰研發的新技術NIL奈米壓印,已獲宏碁及戴爾認證,由於NIL產品的外觀亮麗,還有立體觸感,市場看好是金屬機殼表面處理的新趨勢。

巨騰月初針對下半年營運表現發布獲利示警,主因下半年NB整體出貨較上半年持平,加上大陸勞工成本增加,法人估,今年巨騰每股純益約港幣0.42至0.47元(約新台幣1.63元至1.83元)。

法人評估,巨騰去年塑膠機殼出貨量4,600萬台,金屬機殼每月出貨60萬至70萬片,預估今年塑膠機殼出貨達4,800萬至4,900萬台,金屬機殼每月出貨提升至300萬片。

巨騰明年首季預期也維持0至5%出貨季增率,明年第二季宏碁與戴爾的鋁沖壓機殼出貨,且隨整體NB出貨拉升,出貨可望逐季成長。

法人指出,索尼因日圓升值壓力,今年第四季起釋出中高階機種採用的碳纖機殼訂單,巨騰為獨家代工廠商。

類比IC廠 將掀價格戰

2010.11.17 【經濟日報╱記者陳碧珠、曾仁凱/台北報導】

德儀(TI)全球第一座12吋類比IC晶圓廠,明年首季量產,產品包括中低階類比IC。德儀台灣區總經理陳建村昨(16)日表示,屆時價格將非常有競爭力,恐衝擊國內類比IC族群。不過,立錡(6286)、致新(8081)已紛紛從6吋晶圓轉進至8吋晶圓,全力迎戰。

德儀是全球最大類比IC廠,全球市占率達14%。陳建村表示,雖然14%已是龍頭,仍有大幅提升的空間,今年下半年雖然類比市場比上半年弱,客戶的訂單仍大於產能10%,公司將啟動擴產滿足客戶需求,並提升市占率。

德儀位於德州代號為「RFAB」的晶圓廠,是全世界第一座12吋類比IC晶圓廠,今年透過併購奇夢達12吋晶圓廠,使德儀12吋晶圓廠產能增加一倍,這座晶圓廠將投入智慧手機、Netbook、電信等中高低階產品。

陳進村說,RFAB下季量產後,一年可帶來20億美元營收,相當於新台幣600億元,規模超過立錡、致新、類比科、茂達等國內類比IC公司的營收總和,價格壓力來勢洶洶。

立錡副總張國城觀察,一般來說,如果是明年上半年要推的新產品,現在合作都應該要談定,到目前為止,市場上還沒有看到太大動靜,預估德儀12吋廠的衝擊到明年上半年,還不致於有太大的影響。

致新總經理吳錦川更直指,德儀的12吋類比IC廠可能是場騙局,因為德儀12吋廠許多人員,都是從數位IC部門調過去,實際生產類比IC的比例有限,實際影響應該有限。不過,面對德儀、Maxim、安森美等國際類比IC大廠紛紛擴產,國內類比IC公司仍嚴陣以待,正加速從6吋晶圓轉進8吋晶圓。

張國城說,目前立錡的電視面板、及部分可攜式行動裝置,已開始採8吋晶圓。另外,新推出晶片產品也多半直接導入8吋晶圓,惟實際進度要看設計導入(Design in)的產品終端銷售情況而定,估計到明年底,8吋晶圓占立錡總出貨比重有機會達到二成到三成。

2010年11月15日 星期一

Taiwan’s Blunt FX Interventions

NOVEMBER 15, 2010 Aries Poon from the Wall Street Journal

Of all the roles central banks are asked to perform, keeping a lid on currency appreciation by directly intervening in foreign exchange market is perhaps one of the trickiest. And it’s certainly not made any easier when politicians weigh in with their two cents on how it should be done.

In Taiwan’s case, however, the Central Bank of the Republic of China may do well to listen to the pols.

In a rare display of government criticism, Taiwanese vice premier Sean Chen delivered a broadside against the CBC in the Legislature on Wednesday, demanding the bank radically change the way it manipulates the New Taiwan Dollar.

The issue isn’t over whether the huge intervention that’s been underway in recent months to curb the NTD’s unstoppable gains is in fact money well spent. This is Asia after all, and governments across the region are actively resisting pressure to appreciate. Taiwan in particular has a reputation for being one of the most — if not the most – interventionist of central banks in Asia.

Rather, it’s a question of whether they can get more bang from their buck.

The way the central bank intervenes is quite unique. It buys dollars in massive quantities from state-owned banks during the last 15 minutes of the onshore five-hour trading session. It typically makes only one or two trades, but their size is large enough to bring the value of the NTD against the U.S. dollar back down to a level somewhere very near to the previous day’s close.

So, should investors sell the U.S. dollar during trading hours? Or to wait until the onshore market closes so that they can get a better price?

The tricky part is that investors literally can’t sell the U.S. dollar at those “closing” prices. The banks that are in on the trade with the central bank don’t pass the prices through to the market because market expectations – as reflected in the offshore nondeliverable forwards market – are that the NTD will continue appreciate. The opening price for the NTD against the dollar the following day is invariably lower than it would have been had the central bank not intervened the next day, but is higher than the negotiated trading price. That dilutes the benefit to exporters – for whom the government tries to control appreciation in the first place - who have to settle their trades at less advantageous level than where the central bank intervened.

In short, the central bank’s high jinks have managed to slow the headline rate of appreciation, but the closing prices are in effect fictional.

The problem is that the Taiwanese style of intervention effectively resets the closing level each day, but fails to send a clear message to the market about where the central bank wants the currency to be. In other words, the central bank has failed to draw a line in the sand and instead the market has come to expect that the gradual appreciation of the NTD is the norm.

The contrast with Japan and Singapore – neither of whom shy from currency intervention – is instructive. They have internal moving target levels at which they intervene in the market. They don’t broadcast those levels in advance, but by being willing to trade to defend those levels they signal to the market how much movement they’re willing to accept.

And by knowing the boundaries the market can trade accordingly–a superior approach to having the central bank press reset each day.

One might argue Taiwan’s forex interventions have worked to a certain extent, given the Taiwan dollar has risen less than its rival Korean won. But it’s a case of apples and oranges: Korea’s local-currency bonds are offering more decent returns than their Taiwanese counterparts, attracting additional capital flows.

Taiwan’s forex regime is best judged on its own terms – and surely there has to be a better way.