2011年4月30日 星期六

電池看漲 NB電池雙雄業績與股價概況

2011/04/26   【經濟日報╱記者李立達/台北報導】



日本311地震後,缺料危機浮現,市場傳出韓系電池芯廠擬率先漲價;法人指出,新普(6121)、順達科率先受惠,尤其新普掌握半數以上平板電腦訂單,成長最強勁。

分析師指出,日本強震後,保護IC及PTC溫度感測器等關鍵零組件供應嚴重短缺,出貨時間從以往4周延長至8至10周;市場傳出,韓系廠三星、LGC將順勢漲價,漲幅2%至3%。

新普、順達科為市場兩大電池模組廠,將取得足夠料源,電池芯價格上揚,也擴大模組廠的獲利空間。

法人指出,電池價格上揚,加上新普的iPad2訂單比重調升至六成,預估其第二季營收將季增17%,毛利率亦由15.5%上修至16.6%。

法人指出,蘋果帶動平板電腦風潮,新普最先受惠,主因平板電腦電池採用設計較為複雜的薄型鋰高分子電池,新普的接單經驗與科技含量,超過同業,預估今年平均每兩台平板電腦,就有一台出自新普。

外資評估新普獲利成長穩定,均喊買進,大和證券評估,新普每年每股獲利將達兩位數成長,預估至2013年將賺進兩個股本。

德意志證券看好新普在平板及傳統筆電的領先地位,評估新普從2010至2012年,每年營收與獲利的年複和成長率,分別達20%及15%。

德意志證券指出,新普掌握平板電腦電池市場,從2010起至2012年營收年複合成長率將達103%,且分別占2011年、2012年總營收的27%、35%;成長可期,評估買進,目標價定為240元。

新普昨天股價盤中下探季線之下,終場跌1元,收193元,守穩季線位置,成交量799張;順達科昨跌0.5元,收92.5元,成交量366張。


【記者李立達/台北報導】上海車展後,電動車成為全球車廠的風向球;法人指出,新普與順達科提前卡位,電動車一旦啟動,兩廠受惠最深。

上海車展共吸引來自全球20個國家和地區的2,000家中外汽車廠商,所有重要車廠均以電動車為主題,展示相關概念車,宣告電動車已成為全球車廠的發展焦點。

新普去年第一季宣布與中國普天集團簽約合作,共同發展電動車所需的動力電池,雙方已展開設廠試產等後續作業,今年量產,明年營收將貢獻數十億元。

傳鴻海跨足參股 太陽能電池廠盟友概要

2011/04/28   【經濟日報╱記者溫建勳、李立達/台北報導】





外資圈傳出,鴻海為拓展太陽能版圖,有意參股電池廠新日光。由於鴻海之前入股益通失利,顯示鴻海為布局太陽能,仍積極以參股、併購來快速切入的企圖心。
新日光昨天不願回應這項傳聞;截至截稿前,鴻海發言系統未接電話,無法取得說法。
鴻海高層多年前曾拜訪新日光,希望透過入股等方式結盟,但當時不了了之。業界認為,鴻海找新日光結盟的消息已流傳多時,多年前新日光股價僅30幾元,在「買家要買便宜、賣家要賣高」的情況下,無法達成共識,現在新日光股價翻倍到60元以上,要談成「更非易事」。
此外,鴻海向來入股公司都想掌握優勢股權,進而取得經營層,新日光由前台積電資深副總林坤禧領軍,又有前工研院太陽能第一把交椅洪傳獻擔任總經理,要公司派讓出經營權,「除非條件非常好」。
外資圈傳出鴻海此次再度找上新日光,由曾任鴻海董事長辦公室特助、群創(後併入奇美電)財務長的新日光新任財務長許嘉成牽線,盼能「再續前緣」。至於合作細節,包括參股方式、價格,仍未確定。
許嘉成曾擔任大通銀行副總裁,與多家外資券商關係良好。許嘉成昨天不願對此作任何評論。消息人士指出,國內太陽能電池大廠合縱連橫態勢愈來愈明朗,鴻海要跨入相關領域,能找的合作對象已不多,加上義大利補助近期底定,也有助於新日光等業者的表現。然而,雙方若要進入下一階段實質結論,還有不少的努力空間。
對新日光談判較為不利的是太陽能電池4月仍有降價壓力,上半年市場保守看待,市場看淡獲利,因此合作價格不容易向上拉抬,而且股價近期跌至波段低點。

台泥砸900億 拚陸產能倍增

2011.04.30   【經濟日報╱記者邱馨儀、邱展光、周義朗/台北報導】



台泥集團昨(29)日舉行集團聯合法說會,董事長辜成允首度對外公布集團第二個五年計畫,宣示2016年以前,台泥集團在大陸的水泥年產能將倍增並突破1億公噸,市場估所需資金逼近900億元,「台泥將進入高資本支出時代」。


辜成允表示,將以併購、自建生產線雙管齊下擴充產能,自建產能會是主軸。台泥截至今年底大陸產能4,800萬公噸,規模大陸第六,以一條200萬公噸的新窯需要1億美元估算,若要達成1億公噸目標,「至少需要30億美元」;由於同業也進行擴充,屆時台泥能否擠進前三大,還要看誰速度快。現在大陸水泥產能超越1億公噸的,只有安徽海螺水泥。
另一方面,未來台泥在大陸布局仍將深耕華南、西南地區,他強調台泥集團以區域領導廠商為目標,而非全國的無領導地位的水泥廠。受惠大陸水泥價格飆漲,台泥第一季稅後純益13.2億元、年增率43%,每股稅後純益0.36元,其中水泥獲利占比也首度達到50%的水準,凸顯大陸市場對台泥的獲利挹注。
根據統計,台泥轉投資大陸台泥國際,毛利率自去年第四季起大幅回升,第一季毛利率高達23.7%,比去年同期大增21個百分點。
中橡目前全球碳煙市占率約6%,居全球第四,未來幾年去瓶頸計畫主要在大陸及印度,印度新產能將在2013年開出,年產能將擴增17.5萬公噸,大陸今年產能增加28萬公噸,明年提升至34萬公噸。碳煙是輪胎的重要原料。
至於化學大廠信昌化,主要生產酚酮,下游產業應用在尼龍粒、光碟片、印刷電路板,2010年酚酮等產品全產全銷,獲利相當驚人,每股稅後純益達11.87元。
信昌化總經理陳福隆表示,台電第一季兩次停電,致信昌化工廠也被迫停爐兩次,影響產能。第一季產品報價高,原料行情也高,第一季營收與2010 年第四季相差無幾,但每股稅後純益卻僅3.48元,季衰退約18%。

第二代功能機晶片 聯發科新武器

2011.04.30   【經濟日報╱記者謝佳雯/台北報導】



由於3G手機晶片必須面臨競爭對手高通(Qualcomm)的權利金成本,IC設計龍頭聯發科(2454)今年突破成長瓶頸,將著力在同樣可以上網的「第二代功能機」,新晶片「MT6252」和「MT6236」將是兩大祕密武器,並兼具穩定毛利率的功能。
聯發科總經理謝清江昨天在法說會說明「MT6252」進度時指出,新晶片自3月起出貨已累積出貨200萬顆以上,內部對於「MT6252」品質和方案很有信心,在第二季大量出貨後,對毛利率的維持也會有相當的幫助。
謝清江表示,「MT6252」整合基頻和RF,可以cost down,也提供觸控使用者介面和網路功能,使用者還可以在開放平台下進行下載,是規畫和執行很正位的產品,預估第三季占聯發科手機晶片出貨比重可達30%以上,年底占比重目標40%。

友達入股龍飛 概念股high

2011.04.30   【經濟日報╱記者蕭君暉/台北報導】



面板大廠友達董事會昨(29)日通過,將投資7.96億美元(約新台幣228.65億元),參股大陸昆山龍飛光電8.5代廠,擴張在大陸的電視市場版圖,帶動相關概念股業績表現。
面板業者要蓋一座8.5代廠的投資金額1,000億元起跳,友達只花200多億元,就擁有一座新世代廠的產能,不僅大幅減輕財務負擔(友達第一季大虧139億元),又可接近全球最大的液晶電視市場—大陸,可說是相當划算。
友達成為台灣第一家合法登陸的面板廠,包括設備商如盟立與均豪,偏光膜廠明基材料,燈管廠威力盟,驅動IC廠聯詠與旭曜等各類面板零組件供應商,隨著友達大陸布局跨大步,業績隨之水漲船高。
友達表示,此一投資案先經董事會通過,送經濟部審議,一旦經政府核准後,才會開始進行。友達財務長楊本豫說,大陸設立新世代面板廠執照已經發完,沒有新的執照可以申請,友將只能參股大陸面板廠,達到登陸目的。
友達執行副總彭雙浪說,龍飛不是友達的公司,先要經政府核准,才能執行參股動作。龍飛8.5代廠預定2012年底量產,若建廠完成之際市況不佳則延後量產。
友達去年3月向經濟部申請登陸設7.5代廠,去年12月獲政府核准,但考量市場變化,以及大陸的執照限制,友達希望取消「N-1」的登陸限制,並採合資方式,而非以100%獨資的方式在大陸蓋廠。經濟部3月已開放台灣面板廠赴陸參股。
昆山市政府除了擁有龍飛光電外,還與寶成集團合資設立龍騰光電五代廠,由於龍騰虧損累累,未來昆山方面是否要求友達接管龍騰,也值得觀察。
業內人士提醒,三星電子近期宣布登陸蘇州設立7.5代廠,並投資TCL旗下8.5代廠—深圳華星光電,南韓業界也有不少反對聲浪,深怕新世代面板廠技術,加速外洩給大陸,長期來看,反而對南韓面板廠不利。
奇美電登陸方面,市場傳出將與成都市政府合作設立8.5代廠。不過,由於成都設廠的執照,仍沒有經過北京政府的核准,奇美電也還未向政府申請,友達登陸的腳步最快。

2011年4月29日 星期五

Fed Takes Foot Off the Gas

APRIL 27, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


The Federal Reserve used its first-ever news conference to signal it will phase out a controversial bond-buying program—and to reassure a skeptical public that the central bank is doing everything it can to control inflation and expand an uneven recovery that has yet to reach many Americans.
WSJ's Kelly Evans leads a discussion breaking down Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's first-ever press conference.
"It is very hard to blame the American public for being impatient," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, a former economics professor, told about 60 reporters at Wednesday's one-hour news conference, which was transmitted on the Internet and televised. "Conditions are far from where we would like them to be. The combination of high unemployment, high gas prices and high foreclosure rates is a terrible combination and a lot of people are having a very tough time."
Mr. Bernanke said the central bank would complete its $600 billion bond-buying program in June, as planned, and maintain ultra-low interest-rates for the now.
Amid 8.8% unemployment, a moribund housing market, and rising gas and food prices, the Fed chairman took his message directly to the public.

Dow Jones Industrial Average, minute by minute, during Bernanke's historic news conference
He aimed in part to better explain the thinking within a central bank whose reputation has been bruised by the recession and its aftermath. That reputation is especially important right now, because Mr. Bernanke needs to convince the public that he won't let inflation take off after pushing interest rates to near zero or employ unconventional measures, such as the bond-buying program, to boost growth.
By ending the bond purchases, the Fed has effectively decided that it won't do more to boost growth, even though the economy appeared to stumble during the first quarter. Fed officials now will turn their attention to when the central bank might start raising interest rates. Mr. Bernanke made clear he isn't inclined to do that for a long time, unless the inflation outlook worsens.
Financial markets, particularly riskier assets such as stocks and commodities, rose in response to the Fed's action and Mr. Bernanke's comments. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 95.59 points, or 0.76% to 12690.96, with the bulk of the gains coming after the Fed released its policy statement at 12:30 p.m., about two hours before the press conference began. Gold prices jumped 0.91% to $1516.70 an ounce, while silver surged 2.01% to $45.9640 an ounce.
Investors punished the dollar. The euro rose more than 0.7% to nearly $1.48 against the greenback. The British pound rose to $1.66. Critics say the Fed is hastening the dollar's decline by flooding the financial system with so much of the currency through its bond-buying programs. Mr. Bernanke countered that the best medicine for the dollar in the long run was a faster-growing economy, which he is trying to promote with his policies.
Treasuries didn't move much. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note ended the day yielding 3.368%, roughly matching its level before the Fed released its policy statement.
Brett Arends and Dennis Berman give us their assessment on how Bernanke did in his first-ever press conference.
The decision about when to raise interest rates will be challenging. The Commerce Department is expected to report Thursday that the economy grew slowly in the first quarter, at a subpar annual rate of less than 2%—a condition that could justify leaving rates very low. But with prices marching higher for oil, grain, and other commodities, the Fed is under increasing pressure to respond to inflation threats with higher rates.
The Fed raised its inflation forecasts at the meeting. In January, Fed officials said they expected 1.3% to 1.7% inflation in 2011. Now, because of soaring gasoline prices, they expect inflation of 2.1% to 2.8%, but they expect it to drop back below 2% in 2012 and 2013. They forecast the unemployment rate, now 8.8%, to finish the year between 8.4% and 8.7%, and to finish 2012—just after the next presidential election—somewhere between 7.6% and 7.9%.

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"Bernanke handled himself very adroitly," said Michael Feroli, an economist with J.P. Morgan. "He didn't speculate on decisions that have not yet been made by the FOMC." The FOMC, or Federal Open Market Committee, is the decision-making body of the Fed.
At the news conference, which capped two days of policy discussions with other Fed officials, Mr. Bernanke took questions in a calm, deliberative manner, seeming to gain confidence as he proceeded.
His critics, however, weren't swayed by the performance, saying he once again avoided saying when the Fed will tighten policy to keep simmering inflation under control. "He's skilled. He's been dodging questions in Congress for a long time now," said Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian.
WSJ's Kelly Evans leads a discussion about the impact of today's statement by the Federal Reserve and the decision to leave the Fed Funds target unchanged.
While the Fed chief acknowledged the public's impatience, he also said there was little he could do to bring down gasoline prices, which he said were being driven up largely because of worries about oil supplies in the Middle East and strong demand from fast-growing developing economies. "The Fed can't create more oil," he said. "We don't create the growth rates of emerging market economies."
Measures of expected inflation in the bond market and in consumer surveys have recently been creeping up toward the high end of the range they have been in for several years. Mr. Bernanke made clear that one of his biggest concerns right now is that, if people expect inflation to go up, businesses may be quicker to raise prices and consumers more willing to pay them, and workers more likely to demand higher wages—turning the expectations into a self-fulfilling prophecy. But he said he was comfortable that the public's inflation expectations remained well anchored.
Ending the bond-purchase program in June is now its next order of business. The Fed first announced its bond purchases in November 2008 as one of its many untested attempts to fight the then-worsening financial crisis. It ramped up the program in March 2009, allowed it to expire, and then resumed it in November when the economy appeared to lose momentum.
Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, center, took questions at the press conference in Washington Wednesday.
Fed officials for the most part believe the multiple rounds of purchases—known as quantitative easing—helped to ease financial conditions, lift the economy and fight off the threat of deflation, a decline in the overall level of prices. The latest round was accompanied by a soaring stock market and falling unemployment.
Critics include some regional Fed bank presidents. Divisions have already surfaced within the Fed on the appropriate response to higher commodity prices, with a vocal minority of regional officials urging tighter credit this year to head off building inflation.
Charles Plosser from the Philadelphia Fed and Richard Fisher from the Dallas Fed have been the most outspoken in warning about the dangers of raising rates too late. But they didn't dissent at the latest FOMC meeting.
—Mark Gongloff contributed to this article.

Panasonic to Expand Battery Production in China

APRIL 25, 2011 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By JURO OSAWA
TOKYO—Panasonic Corp. plans to build a lithium-ion battery plant in China and boost capacity for such batteries at its existing Chinese plant next year as the Japanese company competes with Samsung Electronics Co., a person familiar with the matter said.

Panasonic, the world's biggest supplier for lithium-ion batteries used in consumer electronics, will build the new factory in the eastern Chinese city of Suzhou. The company also will add facilities at subsidiary Sanyo Electric Co.'s existing plant in Beijing, the person said.

Production of lithium-ion batteries at Sanyo's Japanese plant in Hyogo Prefecture, in western Japan, will move to the new Chinese facilities, the person said Saturday. The Sanyo factory recently stopped production of the batteries but won't close, since it produces other items as well.

Panasonic turned majority-owned Sanyo into a wholly owned unit on April 1 and is realigning production to benefit from the integration. When Panasonic acquired a majority of Sanyo in 2009, the latter's strength in lithium-ion batteries used in consumer electronics was one of the main reasons.
But Korea's Samsung, the world's second-largest producer of such batteries, has since increased its global presence, threatening Panasonic's position. Cost has been a major issue for Panasonic, and the combination of a strong Japanese yen and a Korean weak won has made the competition even tougher.

Panasonic's Chinese production plans come as Japan's March 11 earthquake and subsequent disruption to Japan's supply chain is causing some Japanese manufacturers to review their production systems and consider shifting production overseas permanently. The person familiar with Panasonic's China plans said they were under consideration before the earthquake as part of discussions on how to integrate Sanyo's operations. The person said the earthquake hasn't changed the plans.

China will start taking up a much larger portion of Panasonic's output in a few years, as the company expects a 50% rise in the group's capacity for lithium-ion batteries for consumer electronics by 2015, the person said.

Write to Juro Osawa at juro.osawa@dowjones.com

Samsung-Sony Venture to Reduce Capital

APRIL 25, 2011 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By Jung-Ah Lee
SEOUL—S-LCD, a flat-panel joint venture of Samsung Electronics Co. and Sony Corp., said Monday it will reduce its capital by 600 billion won (US$555 million), which the companies said will result in a more efficient capital structure but that analysts see as a sign of weakening commitment.
South Korea-based S-LCD, a 50-50 venture that makes liquid-crystal displays, was formed in 2004. The two companies' stakes will stay equal, with each taking 300 billion won, the venture said in a regulatory filing.

"This latest reduction was decided under the dual agreement by the two companies and we (Samsung) haven't yet decided where the proceeds will be spent," Samsung spokesman James Chung said.
Sony spokeswoman Yuki Shima said, "The main purpose of this capital reduction is to return the funds generated by S-LCD's operation to the parent companies. In the Joint Venture, it is a common option to implement a capital reduction to return the profit to the parent companies."

After the capital reduction, the joint venture said its equity capital will decline to 3.3 trillion won (US$3.1 billion) from 3.9 trillion won through share cancellations, and its issued shares will also decrease by about 15%, to 660 million from 780 million.

At a meeting last May in Seoul, Samsung Electronics Chairman Lee Kun-hee and Sony Corp. Chief Executive Howard Stringer reportedly agreed to continue developing business ties and also discussed business cooperation in the area of LCDs used in televisions and handsets. A Korean newspaper reported in November that the two sides were in talks to jointly produce 11th-generation LCDs through the joint venture.

But analysts say the capital reduction suggests a lower chance that the venture will move into larger-sized LCD panels, for which demand is weakening. They expect Samsung to focus instead on its partnerships with Chinese counterparts and spend more on its advanced OLED screens—for "organic light-emitting diodes"—which require less power and offer clearer picture quality and faster response time than conventional LCD displays.

"The relationship between Samsung and Sony has been weakening since two years ago," said Jonathan Hwang, an analyst at Daewoo Securities. "The fastest-growing LCD market is China now. It's important for Samsung to strengthen its partnerships with them (China) now."

In its most recent efforts to gain a greater presence in the mainland and strengthen its ties with Chinese vendors, the Korean electronics giant said Friday that it will invest 541.1 billion won in a joint venture in China to make its 7.5th-generation flat panels,.

Samsung plans to team up with the local government of Suzhou to build a 2.6 trillion won LCD panel plant in that Chinese city. Samsung will hold a 50% stake, its Chinese affiliate 10%, the government-affiliated Suzhou Industrial Park 30% and Chinese television maker TCL Corp. the remaining 10%, Samsung said.

Meanwhile, Sony is backing away from plans to raise its stake in an LCD joint venture with Sharp Corp., people familiar with the matter told Dow Jones Newswires last week. Sony, which holds a 7% stake in Sharp Display Products Corp., had planned to raise that stake to 34% by the end of April. Some analysts say weak demand for large LCD panels for TV sets is the main cause behind the move Sony's changed.

—Juro Osawa and Daisuke Wakabayashi in Tokyo contributed to this article.

2011年4月28日 星期四

瑞儀 今年業績看增30%

2011.04.29    【經濟日報╱記者劉芳妙/台北報導】



背光模組大廠瑞儀光電(6176)董事長王本然昨(28)日表示,平板電腦出貨升溫點火,加上NB背光板延伸至後段LCM液晶模組量能大幅成長,今年NB背光板(含LCM)有機會挑戰9,000萬片,年增率達60%,為今年業績注入強心針。

經濟日報/提供
法人估計,瑞儀今年業績可望有三成的成長動能,全年營收上看630億元,瑞儀今年業績將是爆炸性成長,獲利可水漲船高。
瑞儀昨天召開法說會公布第一季營運成果,因切入iPad供應鏈,大幅拉開與同業差距,第一季營收以152億元再創新高,稅後純益9.9億元,每股純益2.33元,平均毛利率10.14%,是六年來單季最好表現,今年全年毛利率仍以保「十」為目標。
展望第二季,王本然說,第二季業績較首季約可成長5%至10%,但4月受到日系TV廠訂單下滑影響,業績略為修正,除了日本之外,整體TV訂單在5、6月後就會向上走,至於NB訂單則逐季走高,8至10月將邁入傳統出貨高峰。
王本然表示,瑞儀是以導光板為核心技術的背光模組廠,近幾年產業變化速度過快,但瑞儀抓住背光源改變、客戶結構改變及產業營運模式的改變三大契機,尤其LCM的營運模式深化與面板廠策略合作關係,讓瑞儀業績異軍突起,不受去年面板景氣修正拖累。
對於日本強震對供應鏈的影響,王本然指出,TV市場影響較大,尤其是日系客戶,但在零組件方面,目前仍無疑慮。他認為,今年平板電腦成為新世代主流產品,今年仍扮重要角色,瑞儀今年仍有新增平板電腦客戶,估計NB背光板(含LCM)有機會達到9,000萬片,年增60%,其中平板電腦比重達50%。
Monitor背光板則約與去年3,630萬片相當或微增;TV背光板約有40%的成長。
為支應訂單需求,瑞儀今年砸下20億元資本支出,在大陸吳江購買新廠,同時購置射出成型機及液晶模組業務擴充等,預計第三季NB背光模組的月產能由400萬片擴充至500萬片。

iPhone賣一台 台積賺7美元

2011.04.29   【經濟日報╱記者簡永祥/台北報導】



台積電昨(28)日召開法說會,董事長張忠謀維持一貫全程用英文演講的個人秀,剖析全球經濟和半導體發展,更首次提出台積電在製程技術獲致多項傲人成就,並加重語氣或重覆說明,展現「台積電就是比別人強」的自信。張忠謀表示,智慧型手機風靡全球,裡頭所需的高階晶片幾乎全由台積電代工。例如博通、英飛凌都是蘋果的供應商,由台積代工生產,等於台積電間接打入蘋果供應鏈,經過換算,消費者買一台iPhone 智慧型手機,台積電大概就能賺6到7美元。
法人則透露,由於台積電有機會爭取到蘋果關鍵中央處理器A5 的訂單,一旦訂單入袋,未來消費者買iPhone,台積電可能就會賺進14美元,較目前高出一倍,潛力可期。
昨天法說會的會場,或許是受到飯店空調太冷的影響,張忠謀在一開始演講時,頻打噴嚏,與會的法人一度以為張忠謀感冒。
張忠謀昨天演講共九個主題,涵蓋日震影響、全球經濟、匯率走勢、智慧型手機和平板電腦的發展、摩爾定律未來的挑戰、台積電資本支出和產能規劃、新事業發展及股東權益報酬的財務規劃,讓法人能宏觀的看全球經濟,也能深入微觀台積電未來走向。
台積電在半導體多項傲人成就,除了表現在iPhone外,張忠謀也舉例,該公司在28奈米Tape-out的客戶數高達89個,不但超乎先前預估的71個,更是所有競爭對手總和的十倍。何麗梅指出,Tape-out是指將設計電路圖放在磁帶中交給客戶,有點像是慶祝設計大功成的意味,形同是和台積訂婚。
張忠謀還提出台積電在成熟製程涵蓋各領域,號稱是業界的「Mr.ABCD」。他說明M是指微處理器、r是射頻晶片(RFIC)、A為車用及類比IC、B為電源管理IC、C為影像感測器、D為數位訊號處理IC,這些產品也成為台積電6吋與8吋廠滿載的利基型產品。

2011年4月27日 星期三

意外!和碩Q1每股虧0.25元

2011.04.28   【經濟日報╱記者曾仁凱/台北報導】


和碩(4938)昨(27)日公布第一季財報「意外虧損」,每股稅後淨損0.25元。另外和碩保守估計第二季通訊類營收將比第一季衰退25%至30%,法人解讀這是由於蘋果CDMA iPhone手機銷售不如預期。
經濟日報/提供
和碩執行長程建中昨天主持法說會。
記者盧振昇/攝影
和碩昨天舉行法說會,公布第一季營收856.21億元,較去年第四季減少19%;營業淨損率2.5%,連續第二季出現本業虧損;稅後淨損5.59億元,「由盈轉虧」,每股稅後淨損0.25元,表現不如預期。和碩昨天股價下跌0.75 元,收在32.25元。
和碩財務長林秋炭昨天表示,由於大陸工資上漲;零組件漲價;公司營收不如預期,未能達到經濟規模量;加上新台幣、人民幣升值等匯率因素,四大原因導致和碩去年第四季和今年第一季連續兩季本業虧損。
和碩執行長程建中說,華碩筆電加速委外代工,對和碩最大的衝擊已經在去年第四季和今年第一季發生,由於和碩接下來在筆電、平板電腦領域都有新客戶、新機種開始出貨,樂觀預估今年筆電出貨量會比去年有10%至15%的成長。
程建中說,和碩第二季營收將成長,幅度約在一成以內;且有一些客戶已同意合理反映成本、調漲代工價格,公司第二季努力朝向本業損益兩平的目標邁進。
值得注意的是,和碩保守預估第二季通訊類營收將季減25%至30%,衰退幅度大於市場預期,外界直指是因為蘋果的CDMA iPhone銷售不如預期。
對此,和碩昨天不願直接透露客戶資訊,但坦承「目前看到通訊類客戶給的第二季需求預估量,的確是比原先預估值少。」

力晶標準DRAM品牌 走入歷史

2011.04.27   【經濟日報╱記者何易霖/台北報導】



力晶半導體昨(26)日宣布,與技術合作夥伴日商爾必達(Elpida)完成新合作協議,力晶退出自有品牌標準型DRAM領域,專為爾必達代工;爾必達無償提供力晶行動記憶體(Mobile RAM)製程技術,力晶將透過自有品牌行動記憶體、晶圓代工等業務重新出發,力拚轉盈。

力晶董事長黃崇仁2月時就透露力晶將轉型,目標是把標準型DRAM占產能比重降至五成以下。
力晶昨天正式宣布轉型之路,從此力晶自有品牌標準型DRAM將走入歷史。
力晶昨天股價上漲0.05元、收6.02元。
法人預期,力晶在擺脫標準型DRAM價格劇烈波動束縛之後,有利提前轉盈。
行動記憶體是平板電腦、智慧型手機關鍵零組件,在力晶之前,南科、華亞科也先後宣布進軍行動記憶體,台灣DRAM三雄未來在行動記憶體領域將展開新一波廝殺。
力晶發言人譚仲民表示,爾必達是全球最大行動記憶體供應商,已打入蘋果雙i供應鏈,力晶無償取得爾必達行動記憶體技術,最快今年底開始小量產出,明年開始挹注營收。
譚仲民透露,力晶目前12吋廠總產能13萬片,晶圓代工占總產能比重已達三成,年底將達五成;為爾必達代工的標準型DRAM產能,未來將控制在五成以內。
力晶先前非標準型記憶體業務以面板驅動IC代工、CMOS感測元件代工、自有品牌儲存型快閃記憶體(NAND Flash)、非標準型記憶體代工等為主,相關產線都是盈利,但受標準型DRAM價格不振影響,首季稅後淨損49.64億元,每股稅後淨損0.9元。
譚仲民表示,力晶非標準型DRAM業務接單暢旺,更是全球唯一以12吋廠代工生產面板驅動IC,間接打入蘋果供應鏈,伴隨行動記憶體加入之後,未來營運更具利基。


文曄Q1獲利 冠IC通路

2011.04.27    【經濟日報╱記者簡永祥/台北報導】



IC通路商文曄科技(3036)昨(26)日舉行法說會,公布第一季每股稅後純益(EPS)1.54元,獲利居IC通路之冠,也逼近去年第三季的獲利高峰,表現優於法人預期。
文曄董事長鄭文宗表示,第一季營收成長主要是受惠平板電腦、智慧型手機等產品銷售暢旺,公司所代理的包括德儀、意法半導體、邁威爾、飛兆、安森美、飛思卡爾、美信及美光等產品已成功打入各主要品牌的平板電腦和智慧型手機供應鏈,挹注公司營收。
值得一提的是,中國電信設備大舉布建3G行動通路網路,文曄代理的美信、飛思卡爾等產品線也切入中興、武漢峰火、大唐電信等局端設備高階晶片,成為帶動文曄首季及本季營收成長的重要動力。
此外,文曄先後併購南韓通路商北星電子和NSU,效益也顯現。
文曄首季合併營收為173.56億元,超過上季法說會所預估營收高標165億元,刷新單季營收紀錄,首季毛利率6.21%,亦達到上季法說會所預估的區間,同時營業費用率由上季的3.95%降至3.52%;首季稅後純益3.82億元,每股稅後純益1.54元。
展望第二季,鄭文宗預估,營收在175億至185億元間,較首季成長1%至7%;第二季毛利率預估區間介於6.1%至6.3%;他強調,第二季為傳統淡季,且日本強震後的半導體供應鏈,可能在5月間因部分元件缺貨,導致出不了貨的「長短腳」問題,加上新台幣持續升值,因此保守看待第二季。


Digging Into Glencore's Sales Pitch

APRIL 27, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


If Glencore International is selling, commodity prices must be peaking, or so the theory goes.
The Swiss company plans an $11 billion flotation next month. That has plenty of people speculating its partners want to cash out before the commodity cycle turns. Glencore counters by saying its earnings hold up well even when prices fall, thanks to the way its marketing arm operates. That's the theory investors should be scrutinizing.
[GLENCOREHERD]
The marketing business contributes about 40% of Glencore's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda. Commodity-price bets are mostly not its game: Glencore hedges 98% of its inventory, limiting its daily estimated maximum loss from unhedged positions to $100 million. Instead, Glencore looks for price arbitrage opportunities. It uses its global network of offices, ships and warehouses to move commodities quickly to where demand is high; to blend products to meet specific customer needs; or to take advantage of price differentials caused by timing.
Glencore says its steady marketing profits cushion earnings fluctuations from its commodity-producing assets, making overall profits less volatile than those of pure mining companies. So analysts attach a higher valuation to the marketing business. It's valued at between eight and nine times expected 2011 Ebitda, compared with 5.6 to seven times for Glencore's industrial assets, Liberum Capital says.
But Glencore must do more to prove how resilient its marketing arm really is. Detailed earnings data on the company pre-2008 aren't available yet, but recent figures aren't encouraging.
The marketing arm's earnings before interest and tax fell 50% year on year in 2009, when commodity prices slumped, while Glencore's mining earnings fell 43%. A 10% fall from current commodity-price levels would reduce Glencore's overall 2011 earnings 22%, compared with a 17% fall for pure miner BHP Billiton, Liberum Capital estimates.
Marketing growth may get harder, too. Glencore already has dominant market positions in the trading of zinc, copper and lead. There's more room to expand market share in iron ore, oil and agricultural-product trading, but competition from other trading firms, oil majors and even investment banks is fierce. Meanwhile, Glencore may find the scrutiny that comes with being a public company makes it harder for it to do profitable marketing deals.
Glencore's marketing earnings before interest and tax were $3.2 billion in 2008, but may only reach that level again in 2015, Citi forecasts. Faster growth will only come if Glencore expands its industrial operations more quickly, providing more product for the marketing arm to trade with.
Similar logic underlies Glencore's scarcely concealed desire to merge with pure miner Xstrata. Expanding production, whether organically or through acquisition, will require more capital from the equity markets. That is why Glencore's partners are selling out now.
Write to Andrew Peaple at andrew.peaple@dowjones.com

Hong Kong Housing Fever May Cool

APRIL 26, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


HONG KONG—Higher borrowing costs may finally lead to falling prices in the world's least-affordable housing market, one that so far has resisted government efforts to cool it down.
Reuters
Conduit Road 39, one of Hong Kong's most luxurious residential towers, right, has sold just five of 66 apartments.
Prices of Hong Kong properties jumped 24% last year on top of a 30% surge in 2009, according to local property indexes.
But there are signs that the pace of transactions in the market for existing housing has started to slow. Hong Kong leaders now worry that a small trickle of cash out of the market for luxury housing, driven by wealthy mainland Chinese, could accelerate and send prices tumbling.
Mortgage rates are starting to rise, albeit from levels of less than 1% a year for some adjustable-rate loans. Earlier this month,HSBC Holdings PLC and some other banks announced higher rates on certain mortgage loans for new customers; HSBC now charges as much as 1.5 percentage point above the Hong Kong interbank offered rate.
Barclays Capital forecasts that a steady rise in borrowing costs, to above 4% next year, in part as the U.S. Federal Reserve starts increasing its own interest rates, could eventually lead to a drop in sales. Because the value of the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. dollar, local interest rates are effectively set by the U.S., even though banks can adjust their mortgage rates independently of central-bank moves.
Financial Secretary John Tsang earlier this month warned investors not to count on cheap credit. "The current abundant liquidity and low interest rates will not last forever," he said. "Neither will rising property prices."
So far, government efforts to cool the market, including moves in November to impose new taxes aimed at discouraging speculative transactions and restrict credit for high-end purchases, haven't worked. Analysts say that is because interest rates remained low and buyers had easy access to cheap loans.

Hong Kong's Rising Real Estate

Hong Kong is one of the costliest--or most lucrative--real-estate markets in the world. Here's a district-by-district look at changes in property prices.
Since the November measures, average housing prices have risen an additional 15%, according to an index compiled by Centaline, a property agency. Sales volume increased 9% in March from February, according to the latest Land Registry report.
A survey on global housing affordability, published by Demographia International in January, ranked Hong Kong last among 325 urban markets. The territory's median house price was 11.4 times Hong Kong's gross annual median household income.
By comparison, New York ranked 68th in affordability, with prices at 6.1 times median income. Atlanta was ranked most affordable; the median home price was 2.3 times income.
Hong Kong's housing prices now are above the peak reached in 1997, just before a financial crisis hammered most of the region, Mr. Tsang noted.
Discontent over unaffordable housing—and the belief that government policy favors powerful property developers over ordinary people—has become a political flashpoint. Recently, activists from the Civic Party's youth branch camped outside the offices of Li Ka-shing, Hong Kong's richest businessman, to protest what they call the "property-developer hegemony."
Now, some analysts are forecasting that the market is close to a tipping point. Analysts at Barclays Capital predict prices will rise another 15% this year as the supply of new apartments remains low, even as the number of transactions starts to fall.
Next year, they added in a recent report, prices could fall 15% to 20% from 2011 levels. In 2013, the report said, prices could fall another 10% from the 2012 levels. The Barclays analysts also predict mortgage rates will rise to 2.5% at the end of this year and above 4% next year, making housing less affordable.
But others doubt that rising mortgage rates will stem demand, because of mainland Chinese buyers who don't rely much on loans to buy property. Newly affluent Chinese account for some 30% of luxury real-estate purchases in Hong Kong.
That could change if the Beijing government take additional measures to cool down China's overheating economy, such as raising interest rates further or boosting reserve requirements for banks. This month, China raised the share of deposits banks must hold as reserves at the nation's central bank to 20.5%, the 10th increase since the start of last year, after boosting interest rates yet again.
However, a drop in home prices is unlikely to bring the sort of damage to banks that U.S. lenders suffered after the U.S. housing bubble burst.
Analysts say banks are protected from the impact of a downturn by the conservative loan-to-value ratios in use in Hong Kong, as well as the use of recourse lending, in which banks can go after borrowers who default on loans.
In a sign of continued optimism about the housing market, developers behind two luxury residential projects haven't budged on prices, despite sluggish sales. The developers say their current asking prices reflect the market.
Queen's Cube, a 96-unit luxury residential building jointly developed by Nan Fung Development Ltd. and an arm of the Hong Kong government, has sold only eight apartments since the project was launched in October.
Units at Queen's Cube have sold for between roughly HK$14,000 a square foot and HK$18,500 a square foot (about US$1,800 to US$2,380), well above the average price of HK$12,292 a square foot in the Wanchai district, according to data from Midland Realty. Donald Choi, managing director of Nan Fung, said the firm hasn't lowered prices at Queen's Cube.
Just five of 66 apartments have sold at Henderson Land Development Co.'s 39 Conduit Road development in the Midlevels district; 20 of the first 24 sales fell through in June. One of the canceled sales was for a 6,158-square-foot duplex that went for HK$71,280 per square foot, which would have made it the world's most expensive apartment.
The 39 Conduit Road project has sold only one unit since the cancellations: a semi-duplex that fetched HK$60,000 per square foot—a record price for a luxury apartment in Hong Kong, according to Henderson Land. Homes in the Midlevels district average about HK$15,000 per square foot, says Midland Realty broker Phoebe Wong.
"These developers are cash-rich, so they're waiting the market out," said Benedict Ma, associate director of research at CB Richard Ellis.
—Alice Truong
contributed to this article.