2011年12月30日 星期五

Yahoo Discussing Plan to Cut Alibaba Stake to 15%


Three months after firing its chief executive and opening its doors to suitors, Yahoo Inc. is revisiting a proposed deal that would shed most of its Asian assets while narrowing the Internet firm's focus and rewarding stockholders.

Yahoo is discussing a plan to substantially cut its 40% stake in Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and sell its 35% ownership position in Yahoo Japan, said people familiar with the matter.

The value of the transaction for the Asian assets is about $17 billion to $18 billion, said people familiar with the matter. Yahoo's market capitalization Wednesday before news broke of the possible deal was about $18.5 billion.

The deal would allow Yahoo to return some cash to shareholders, some of whom have been agitating for better performance. It would also allow Yahoo to focus on turning around its core Internet advertising business under a new leader.

The proposed transaction is expected to be reviewed Thursday by the Yahoo board committee leading the strategic review.
Directors "want to know more" before they bless the transaction, including whether Yahoo would have to buy an operating asset, according to a person familiar with the matter. If the deal occurs, "I assume some [of the cash] will be paid out to shareholders" in the form of Yahoo's first dividend or a stock buyback, the person said.

Shares of Yahoo rose on news of the potential deal, closing Wednesday up 6%, or 88 cents, to $15.99.

Yahoo's board in September ousted its chief executive, Carol Bartz, and started a strategic review that led to the discussions with the Asian companies as well as with private-equity firms.
Although Alibaba and Softbank Corp., a large shareholder in Yahoo Japan, put forward their proposal several months ago, talks recently gained steam when the private-equity offers for a minority stake in Yahoo came in lower than what Yahoo was expecting, the people familiar with the matter said.

An Alibaba deal won't necessarily end Yahoo's talks with private-equity firms over a possible minority stake, according to the person familiar with the situation. "They aren't mutually exclusive deals," this person said.

Alibaba, China's largest Internet company run by CEO Jack Ma, became more willing to accommodate Yahoo's desire to keep an ownership stake in Alibaba, the people said. And the Alibaba-Softbank group also improved terms of its offer, the people added.

A Yahoo spokeswoman didn't respond to requests for comment. An Alibaba spokesman declined to comment.

A substantial amount of Yahoo's value has been wrapped up in its Asian assets. Yahoo's stake in Alibaba in September was valued around $13 billion. It paid $1 billion to buy the stake in 2005.
The company owns some of the Web's most popular sites and generates more than $4 billion in net revenue from online ads and other fees. But it has been outgunned in recent years by Google Inc. and Facebook Inc.

The plan for the Asian assets would involve Alibaba creating a subsidiary into which it would put several billion dollars of cash, plus an operating asset that Yahoo wants to buy using additional cash from Alibaba, almost like giving Yahoo a prepaid card for an asset of its choice, the people said.
Alibaba would swap the stock of this subsidiary for just under two-thirds of Yahoo's stake in Alibaba, the people said. The transaction would leave Yahoo with a 15% stake in Alibaba plus the cash and the subsidiary's assets. Under U.S. tax law, such a transaction isn't considered a sale, so there are no taxes levied on it.

Yahoo would carry out an identical transaction for its entire 35% stake in Yahoo Japan, which has a market value of around $6 billion.

The total value of the Alibaba piece would be more than $12 billion, with the Yahoo Japan stake exchange making up the rest for a total deal value of as much as between $17 billion and $18 billion, or around $14 a share based on 1.25 billion outstanding Yahoo shares, a person familiar with the matter said.
Tax savings account for the difference between the market price for Yahoo's shares and the $14 price offered in the Asian asset deal, the people said.

—Amir Efrati contributed to this article.
Write to Anupreeta Das at anupreeta.das@wsj.com, Gina Chon at gina.chon@wsj.com and Joann S. Lublin at joann.lublin@wsj.com

Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204464404577112831114731306.html#ixzz1i1VEr1I1

2011年12月25日 星期日

彭雙浪三招 要讓友達轉盈

2011.12.26   【經濟日報╱記者蕭君暉/台北報導】

友達AMOLED是利用遮罩(Shadow Masking)方式蒸鍍RGB三原色,解析度可達250至300ppi,先在新竹3.5代線量產,2013年下半起新加坡4.5代廠將加入量產陣容。

全文網址: 彭雙浪三招 要讓友達轉盈 | 科技產業 | 財經產業 | 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN3/6804313.shtml#ixzz1hc1eCZy6
Power By udn.com 

2011年12月24日 星期六

Half a billion dollars: why Apple's acquisition of Anobit matters

Half a billion dollars: why Apple's acquisition of Anobit matters
Apple reportedly acquired the Israeli flash memory design firm Anobit in a deal that cost the company $500 million dollars. Anobit management told its staff of the acquisition this week, according to Israeli newspaperCalcalist, after Apple's head of R&D visited the company's headquarters last week. Additionally, Apple is supposedly planning to build a research center in Israel as well, conveniently located in a hotbed of silicon design.
The acquisition is one of the most expensive for Apple since it acquired NeXT in 1996—15 years ago to the day, in fact—and should cement the company's strategic shift to solid-state flash storage for its products.

Apple and flash storage, sitting in a tree

Apple began standardizing on flash storage for its mobile devices with the launch of its iPod nano in 2005. Since then, the company has continually relied on pre-paying for huge stocks of NAND flash supply to keep its iPods, iPhones, and iPads in constant production.
Apple has been transitioning its laptops to rely on flash storage, too—albeit much more slowly due to themuch higher costs of SSDs compared to traditional hard drives. That transition began with the launch of an SSD-equipped MacBook Air in 2008. In 2010, Apple revised and expanded the MacBook Air line andstandardized on SSDs for all models. None of its MacBook Pro laptops come standard with an SSD (yet), but it has been offering flash storage as a build-to-order option for a couple years.
(SSDs remain a built-to-order only option for its desktop computers too, including the Mac Pro, iMac, and Mac mini, but desktops continually represent a smaller minority of Apple's sales quarter after quarter.)
As many Ars readers know, flash storage offers three major advantages for mobile devices: the lack of mechanical parts mean there's less to break, especially if a device gets bumped or dropped. Flash storage also typically uses less power than spinning magnetic media. And finally, its high speed means less bottlenecks for the lower-powered processors typically used in smaller devices, as well as "instant-on" capabilities.
But flash storage does have some drawbacks as well. One we already mentioned is cost—a 480GB SSD costs about $800, while a 500GB hard drive runs just over $100. Packing more storage into a smaller space also requires state of the art technology, so getting more storage space for an iPhone or MacBook Air can bump the cost differential even higher.
Additionally, flash storage reliability drops quickly with long-term use. Single-level cell designs last up to several years, but the multi-level cell designs that have increased in popularity for mobile devices due to increased storage density actually decrease the useable life span of flash chips.

Anobit to the rescue

That's where Anobit and its technology come in. Anobit has developed unique technologies that can increase the reliability of multi-level cell designs. In fact, Apple already uses an Anobit-designed DSP chip in iPhones, iPads, and MacBook Airs to extend the life of the NAND flash chips in those devices.
Anobit—like Apple's other recent silicon design acquisitions, PA Semi and Intrinsity—is a fabless design house. Its specialty is creating, testing, and verifying new designs that implement its technological innovations, and then licensing the designs to companies like Apple. By buying up Anobit, Apple can keep its flash storage improvement technologies all to itself as a competitive advantage.
Still, Apple will have to hire contract fabs or other manufacturers to build chips using the improved designs. Given the headaches that Samsung, Apple's top chip supplier, has caused Apple in the smartphone marketplace, the Anobit acquisition is perhaps another sign that Apple is prepared to drop Samsung altogetherand move production of in-house designed custom silicon to someone like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.
Furthermore, building an R&D center in Israel will put Apple among other top tech giants that have located research centers near "Technion," or Israel's Institute of Technology. That will also put Apple's silicon design team in close proximity to partners like Intel and Qualcomm.
The basic hardware of the iPhone isn't hard to replicate—an ARM-based processor, NAND flash, Qualcomm baseband, a touch screen, and a handful of largely off-the-shelf parts are fairly easy to come by these days. But highly optimized designs for efficient, low-power operation and long-term reliability don't come cheap. With Apple able to leverage its own in-house expertise and contracting out production in the kind of volume that Apple sees with the iPhone, iPad, and MacBook Air, it can afford to integrate those optimizations into its products while still maintaining market-competitive prices and market-leading profits.

2011年12月23日 星期五

How the iPhone Zapped Carriers


Americans are glued to their mobile devices, obsessively calling, texting, emailing and downloading applications. So why is the U.S. wireless industry in such straits, as shown by AT&T Inc.'s crucial but failed plan to buy T-Mobile USA?
A big reason is that carriers are losing power to the device and software makers riding the smartphone boom.

Tony Avelar/Bloomberg
An advertisement for Apple's iPhone 4S at a Sprint Nextel Corp. store in Palo Alto, Calif.

They're saddled with rising capital costs while much of the profit growth continues to accrue to Apple Inc., manufacturers using Google Inc.'s Android software, and companies making popular wireless apps. And carries haven't figured out the most profitable way to charge consumers for their greater use of data.
In short: Device makers and app developers are having the fun, while the carriers are doing the grunt work.
The wireless industry has always been capital intensive, but the recent move to build faster and more reliable networks to support a deluge of data has weighed on these carriers.
Now that AT&T's pursuit of T-Mobile is over, those two companies are expected to join the rest of the industry in mulling expensive deals for rights to the airwaves—a game that's become a lot more difficult in recent weeks after Verizon Wireless spent nearly $4 billion purchasing spectrum rights from four different cable companies.
The U.S. wireless industry spent $24.9 billion on capital investments like networks and infrastructure in 2010, the highest annual total since 2005, according to industry trade organization CTIA.
But in 2010, AT&T and Verizon Wireless were the only companies to earn a return on their wireless network investments greater than their cost of capital, according to Bernstein Research.

Deutsche Telekom Hunts for a Plan B
Heard: Trouble on the Verizon for AT&T
At the same time, the rapid rise of Apple's iPhone franchise reflects many of the challenges the telecom industry faces even as Americans' reliance on their phones grows.
Wall Street analysts have projected AT&T's wireless profit margins in the fourth quarter will be the worst in at least four years, despite AT&T saying it would sell more smartphones—including the iPhone 4S—than any other quarter.
That's because every time a new iPhone model comes out, it's the carriers—not consumers—that shell out the biggest bucks. Analysts estimate that carriers pay Apple a subsidy of about $400 each time a consumer buys an iPhone with a two-year contract.
AT&T and other wireless carriers say that subsidizing the iPhone heavily amounts to an investment that will make their customers more likely to stay and increase the amount of money they're willing to spend for the carrier's services. But some analysts say those benefits have yet to materialize.
At AT&T, Nomura Securities analyst Michael McCormack says, the profit margins on wireless service haven't meaningfully improved since the company started carrying the iPhone in 2007.
"For the most part, it's really been a wealth transfer from AT&T shareholders to Apple shareholders," said Mr. McCormack, who predicts AT&T's fourth-quarter profit margin will fall to 30% from 44% in the third quarter.
Apple missed financial expectations in its latest quarter due to a delay in the iPhone 4S launch, but sales of iPhones and iPads continue to surge, driving earnings up 54% over a year ago to $6.62 billion.
For the wireless carriers, average revenue per user has been falling in recent years despite increased smartphone adoption as the companies added more connections for lower-revenue devices like e-readers and tablet computers. In the third quarter, wireless carriers were being paid $46.09 a month by the average user, $2 less than a year before, according to UBS AG.
While carriers have to pay higher subsidies for smartphones such as the iPhone, such devices allow carriers to charge customers for data plans. Google's free Android software for smartphones also helped drive smartphone sales and boosted demand for wireless bandwidth even more.
Just in the last year, the amount of wireless data consumed monthly more than tripled among teens and doubled for just about every other age group, according to Nielsen.
Meanwhile, revenue from voice calls, which take up far less bandwidth than, say, watching a YouTube clip, has been declining for years. And even extremely profitable text messaging is threatened by new applications, like Apple's iMessage, that allow smartphone users to interact without racking up texting charges.
Now, carriers are seeking to forge a new pricing model that allows them to monetize surging data usage. Before the smartphone boom, many carriers sold data access on an unlimited basis, making it hard for them to profit.
Earlier this year, Verizon followed AT&T in implementing a tiered data plan, in which heavier users of data pay more.
In trying to buy T-Mobile, AT&T bet that government officials would see the wireless industry's difficulties amid the smartphone boom as a justification for allowing the second-largest industry player to buy the No. 4 player. Regulators didn't see it that way.
Now, analysts say AT&T will have to pull out its checkbook and spend billions more to acquire spectrum rights and invest in building capacity on its network.
For AT&T's smaller competitors, things are even tougher. AT&T and Verizon Wireless earn roughly 80% of the industry's profits and have fared better in adjusting to the smartphone boom than smaller competitors.
The giants are able to use their scale to provide broader coverage and land access, sometimes exclusive, to the hottest devices, such as the iPhone and choice Android phones from device makers like HTC Corp.
The third-largest carrier, Sprint Nextel Corp., decided this year that it needed to carry the iPhone as well. But to do it, Sprint had to commit to paying Apple $15.5 billion for the devices, whether or not it could find buyers for them. The company acknowledged that subsidizing a customer buying an iPhone would cost 40%, or about $200, more than another kind of phone, on average.
T-Mobile, meanwhile, is the only one of the top four carriers that isn't selling the iPhone, one reason for its customer losses. In the first nine months of the year, T-Mobile lost 850,000 contract customers.
Write to Anton Troianovski at anton.troianovski@wsj.com

2011年12月17日 星期六

The Shine Is Off Asian Properties


HONG KONG—Real-estate prices are falling across much of Asia as government measures to rein in once-booming prices start to bite and the slowing global economy hits export-dependent economies.
The slowdown ends years of increases that have driven prices up by 70% or more since the start of 2009 in the hottest markets, spurred by strong economic growth and an influx of investors, many of them foreign, who view Asian real estate as an investment that is relatively immune to the global financial turmoil.
Markets such as Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sydney are all seeing outright price declines, while prices are flat in Seoul. In smaller markets, prices are flat in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur. In Japan, land prices are down for the 20th consecutive year.
[asiaprop]Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
A luxury tower in Hong Kong, where prices in July fell for the first time in three years.
Few expect a property bust like in the U.S., though real-estate developers could suffer as sales volumes tumble, leaving them unable to pay off their lenders. Residential sales volume in China, for example, fell 3.3% in November from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, following an 11.6% drop in October.
Strong demand in many markets such as China is expected to underpin prices. The exception is Singapore, which is the one market where some analysts think price declines could hit 30% in the next three years.
More than 100,000 new residential units in Singapore are expected to be completed in the next three years, according to Standard Chartered analysts. The construction boom comes as prices have risen 70% in the past five years, prompting the government to impose taxes on sales to foreigners or on locals buying multiple units. Foreigners, mostly Chinese, Indonesian, Malaysian and Indian, made up 36% of all new-home sales so far this year.
"From late 2012 we believe the sector's structural issues—rising levels of unsold inventory due to robust launch schedules coupled with a formidable pipeline of completions—will continue to depress rents and capital markets," said David Lum, an analyst for Daiwa Capital Markets, in a recent report.
While Singapore's official government residential-property indexes show that prices edged up in the city-state last quarter from the quarter before, property consulting company CBRE Group Inc. said average luxury-home prices in the third quarter fell close to 2% from the previous quarter. Data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority shows the number of vacant apartments is climbing.
The declines often can be blamed on governments looking to cool soaring property markets in part to quell anger by residents who have been priced out of the market.
Real-estate prices are on the decline in many Asian cities. Richard Price, Asia-Pacific CEO of CBRE Investments, joins Asia Today to discuss which markets are the best bets for aspiring property investors.
While some of the region's developers and investors are hoping that governments may roll back their property-cooling measures, others say concerns about property bubbles will force governments to keep their restrictions in place. "Right now, to many of the governments including China and Singapore, they see more risks in asset bubble forming than a sharp fall in housing prices," said Jinsong Du, an analyst at Credit Suisse.
In China, where the government has clamped down on speculation in the housing market, average property prices in 70 Chinese cities posted their first monthly decline in October.
"We still see a strong medium-, long-term demand for residential developments in China because people always want to upgrade or improve their living standards," said Justin Chiu, executive director of Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., the property flagship of Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, which has increased its presence in China in recent years.
Hong Kong, which has seen home prices surge almost 75% since the beginning of 2009, recorded its first fall in property prices in three years in July. From July to October, prices fell 4%. In November, the number of residential property transactions in Hong Kong fell 64% from a year earlier, according to Land Registry data.
"The drops in home prices in China and Hong Kong are moderate partly because there are simply not that many transactions. Property owners are holding onto their properties and refusing to sell them cheap in bad times," said Nicole Wong, regional head of property research at brokerage firm CLSA.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang said Friday that the government's measures to curb speculative activity, including an additional tax on buyers who sell within two years of purchase, will remain in place.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Viktor Vo of Hungary powers his boat across Marina Bay with the skyline of Singapore in the background on November 18, 2011.
Australian property prices have fallen steadily this year, stopping a multidecade run higher. In the most recent statistics available, home values fell a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in October from September, according to RP Data-Rismark. Price declines have been worse in flood-ravaged Brisbane and mining boomtown Perth.
In Southeast Asia, real-estate prices in Kuala Lumpur are expected to follow Singapore lower, while Bangkok, where the market was already weak, was hurt by Thailand's worst floods in 50 years. The two healthiest markets appear to be Jakarta, boosted by local demand, and Manila, by strong remittances from abroad.
Prices of homes in the Seoul metropolitan area rose by only 0.6% from January to November this year, while construction-related investments fell from the second quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of this year.
—Geoff Rogow in Sydney, Miho Inada in Tokyo and Se Young Lee in Seoul contributed to this article.

上銀科技 發展先進技術力



2011年12月3日 星期六




盛資產管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)董事長吉姆•奧尼爾(Jim O'Neill)上週就動盪的歐洲市場、成長型市場的魅力以及對股市的預期發表了自己的看法。


奧尼爾:我們或是需要減少成員國的數量﹐或是加大融合的力度。這並非一次信貸危機﹐而是一場有關歐洲貨幣聯盟(European Monetary Union)結構和領導力的危機。這和婚姻一樣﹐只有當某方面出問題時﹐你才能判斷出其牢固程度。無論《馬斯特里赫特條約》(Maastricht Treaty)的具體標準是什麼﹐各國還是成功地加入了歐盟﹐有關經濟增長和穩定公約的具體規則並未發揮作用。歐洲國家需要更多真正的融合才能把歐盟變成類似歐羅巴合眾國(United States of Europe)那樣的實體﹐否則歐盟無法存續。不過﹐這並不容易。因為很明顯歐洲各國同美國各州並不相同﹐民眾也不會就成立合眾國一事進行投票。一個有趣的變化是﹐德國執政黨基督教民主聯盟(Christian Democratic Union)倒是在原則上樂意支持成員國脫離歐盟。



Goldman Sachs
奧尼爾:我非常瞭解意大利總理蒙蒂(Mario Monti)。我是歐洲經濟智庫Bruegel的董事會成員﹐而蒙蒂則是該智庫首任主席。作為一名技術性官僚﹐在所有可供選擇的候選人中﹐蒙蒂是最優秀的。而且他的觀點非常傾向歐洲。但一位非民選官員能否真的領導意大利支持某些艱難的選擇?眼下我所見到的情況是歐洲央行(European Central Bank)又一次錯失了更加積極地支持意大利債券市場的機會。歐洲央行應該採取更傳統的量化寬鬆政策﹐它必須更積極地介入歐洲的核心地帶。歐洲央行具有獨立性且從原則上保護這種獨立性是件好事﹐但如果歐洲貨幣聯盟不復存在﹐那麼歐洲央行還有什麼獨立性需要保護呢?今年8月瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)在危機前干預匯市就是一個突出的例子。瑞士央行打壓瑞士法郎幣值並聲明說他們會動用無上限資源的做法收效明顯。瑞士法郎下跌了20%﹐當然瑞士央行幾乎沒有付出任何代價。讓我驚訝的是歐洲央行竟然沒有類似清晰的目標。如果歐洲央行任由意大利債券市場自行發展﹐人們擔心的銀行業問題將會變得更糟。比如美聯儲(Fed)就不會以堅持原則為由任由事態發展。


































奧尼爾:中國股市﹐因為中國股票的估值的確很有吸引力﹐在經歷了艱難的12個月後﹐中國股市走向了正確的道路。在成長型市場中﹐我最不喜歡印尼。我不認為印尼股市的波動幅度像人們想的那麼大﹐今年到目前為止﹐印尼股市仍處於上漲狀態。根據定義來看﹐歐洲金融股似乎非常便宜﹐特別是地中海俱樂部(Club Med Europe)成員的金融股。




2011年12月2日 星期五

Global trade flows shift to Asia

2 December 2011   FinanceAsia

Rupert Walker 

Global trade will continue heading eastwards and intra-regional trade in Asia will lead to a renewed concentration of global demand, according to an Ernst & Young paper published in conjunction with Oxford Economics this week.
The total value of international trade is set to increase from 30% to 37% of world GDP by 2020, while the balance of that trade is likely to shift permanently to the East. World trade in goods will total around $35 trillion, two-and-a-half times its value in 2010, and in services it will double to about $6 trillion. Asia-Pacific will experience the fastest rate of growth in global trade, led by China and India, which will alone account for almost one-fifth of global trade flows by 2020.
Although global trade collapsed during the financial crisis, it has since bounced back, led by trade among emerging economies. Global trade was dominated by Western nations at the start of the 1990s, but their share has declined markedly and this trend is set to continue through to 2020.
“While the advanced economies continue to battle through the financial crisis, the rapid-growth markets are going from strength to strength and are an increasingly significant part of the global economy. They will become an even more dominant force in global trade and as a result businesses are going to have to adjust their strategies to reflect the increasingly regional pattern of world trade that is developing and will intensify over the next decade,” said Gerard Dalbosco, managing partner, Asia-Pacific markets, at Ernst & Young
Measured at current market exchange rates, the global GDP share of the emerging markets is set to increase from around 34% in 2010 to 48% by 2020. China’s share alone is forecast to surge from 9% to nearly 20% over this period. These gains will be at the expense of the advanced economies.
The analysis for the report, called Trading places — the emergence of new patterns of international trade, applied Oxford Economics’ suite of global economic and industry models, and included a survey of 690 senior executives across 17 different markets, and interviews with business leaders to find out what strategies they are deploying.
India and China will steer the continued rise of the emerging markets and, together, these economies will become more important to global trade than the US and eurozone, concluded the report. Almost half the Asia-based respondents to the survey expect to export more than 60% of their output in five years’ time, compared with less than a fifth of the companies in the Americas.
Asia will still to be the most dynamic region in terms of trade, with the fastest growth of exports in goods occurring within the region itself. A trade cluster within Asia has already been formed and China has now become the most significant export destination for most Asian economies. The increasing importance of regional supply chains is a trend that will help to reinforce the importance of both China and India within the overall pattern of global trade.
“The fastest growth of merchandise exports will occur within Asia itself,” said Dalbosco. “More specifically, it will be China and India that lead this expansion. Our bilateral trade forecasts show the fastest growing trade route lies between these two economies, with Indian exports to China growing at an average annual rate of almost 22%, while flows in the opposite direction expand at an average annual rate of 18.5%.”
India and China also represent the quickest growing source of demand for exports from countries outside the region. The projections show that two of the most rapidly growing trade routes will be US exports to China and India, which Ernst & Young see expanding at an average annual rate of almost 16%. China’s exports to Europe, at more than $1 trillion, will be almost twice as large as US exports to Europe.
In addition, by 2020, the total flow of services trade from Europe to Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) will be bigger than to North America. One of the keys will be the growth of trade in financial services.
Furthermore, Ernst & Young estimates that the shift towards global outsourcing of production, as well as the growth of regional supply chains to serve the rapid expansion of demand from expanding markets, will compress the share of the advanced economies in global trade from a little over 60% in 2010 to around 55% by 2020.
However, Dalbosco warned that with the level of global supply changing so rapidly and demand uncertain, there are a number of alternative scenarios and risks that could threaten or even boost global trade growth.
“Perhaps the most dramatic would be a currency realignment scenario, implying a rebalancing of domestic demand between the US and Asia-Pacific region. This would have significant impacts on projected patterns of trade. Alternatively, even a partial acceleration of trade liberalisation could drive a larger-than-expected rise in global trade flows,” he said.
Meanwhile, the report offers comfort to beleaguered exporters in the US and Europe. Ernst & Young’s forecasts imply that over the next 10 years the US could capitalise on its strength in exporting to Asia, reversing the decline during the past decade. And Europe’s exports to China could rise by $370 billion during the next 10 years.
And China will not be immune from its own vulnerabilities. The country’s dominance in low-end manufactured goods will increasingly come under pressure from lower-cost countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and parts of Africa.
© Haymarket Media Limited. All rights reserved.