2011年12月30日 星期五

Yahoo Discussing Plan to Cut Alibaba Stake to 15%

DECEMBER 22, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By ANUPREETA DAS, GINA CHON and JOANN S. LUBLIN
Three months after firing its chief executive and opening its doors to suitors, Yahoo Inc. is revisiting a proposed deal that would shed most of its Asian assets while narrowing the Internet firm's focus and rewarding stockholders.

Yahoo is discussing a plan to substantially cut its 40% stake in Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and sell its 35% ownership position in Yahoo Japan, said people familiar with the matter.

The value of the transaction for the Asian assets is about $17 billion to $18 billion, said people familiar with the matter. Yahoo's market capitalization Wednesday before news broke of the possible deal was about $18.5 billion.

The deal would allow Yahoo to return some cash to shareholders, some of whom have been agitating for better performance. It would also allow Yahoo to focus on turning around its core Internet advertising business under a new leader.

The proposed transaction is expected to be reviewed Thursday by the Yahoo board committee leading the strategic review.
Directors "want to know more" before they bless the transaction, including whether Yahoo would have to buy an operating asset, according to a person familiar with the matter. If the deal occurs, "I assume some [of the cash] will be paid out to shareholders" in the form of Yahoo's first dividend or a stock buyback, the person said.

Shares of Yahoo rose on news of the potential deal, closing Wednesday up 6%, or 88 cents, to $15.99.

Yahoo's board in September ousted its chief executive, Carol Bartz, and started a strategic review that led to the discussions with the Asian companies as well as with private-equity firms.
Although Alibaba and Softbank Corp., a large shareholder in Yahoo Japan, put forward their proposal several months ago, talks recently gained steam when the private-equity offers for a minority stake in Yahoo came in lower than what Yahoo was expecting, the people familiar with the matter said.

An Alibaba deal won't necessarily end Yahoo's talks with private-equity firms over a possible minority stake, according to the person familiar with the situation. "They aren't mutually exclusive deals," this person said.

Alibaba, China's largest Internet company run by CEO Jack Ma, became more willing to accommodate Yahoo's desire to keep an ownership stake in Alibaba, the people said. And the Alibaba-Softbank group also improved terms of its offer, the people added.

A Yahoo spokeswoman didn't respond to requests for comment. An Alibaba spokesman declined to comment.

A substantial amount of Yahoo's value has been wrapped up in its Asian assets. Yahoo's stake in Alibaba in September was valued around $13 billion. It paid $1 billion to buy the stake in 2005.
The company owns some of the Web's most popular sites and generates more than $4 billion in net revenue from online ads and other fees. But it has been outgunned in recent years by Google Inc. and Facebook Inc.

The plan for the Asian assets would involve Alibaba creating a subsidiary into which it would put several billion dollars of cash, plus an operating asset that Yahoo wants to buy using additional cash from Alibaba, almost like giving Yahoo a prepaid card for an asset of its choice, the people said.
Alibaba would swap the stock of this subsidiary for just under two-thirds of Yahoo's stake in Alibaba, the people said. The transaction would leave Yahoo with a 15% stake in Alibaba plus the cash and the subsidiary's assets. Under U.S. tax law, such a transaction isn't considered a sale, so there are no taxes levied on it.

Yahoo would carry out an identical transaction for its entire 35% stake in Yahoo Japan, which has a market value of around $6 billion.

The total value of the Alibaba piece would be more than $12 billion, with the Yahoo Japan stake exchange making up the rest for a total deal value of as much as between $17 billion and $18 billion, or around $14 a share based on 1.25 billion outstanding Yahoo shares, a person familiar with the matter said.
Tax savings account for the difference between the market price for Yahoo's shares and the $14 price offered in the Asian asset deal, the people said.

—Amir Efrati contributed to this article.
Write to Anupreeta Das at anupreeta.das@wsj.com, Gina Chon at gina.chon@wsj.com and Joann S. Lublin at joann.lublin@wsj.com


Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204464404577112831114731306.html#ixzz1i1VEr1I1

2011年12月25日 星期日

彭雙浪三招 要讓友達轉盈

2011.12.26   【經濟日報╱記者蕭君暉/台北報導】


友達2012年三招突圍策略:
1.產能─利用率拚90%
2.單價─提升附加價值
3.技術─奠定高成長基礎
友達總經理彭雙浪
友達新任總經理彭雙浪2012年將要靠三招突圍,希望帶領友達繳出亮麗的財報數字。首先是動態調整產能利用率、減少折舊攤提壓力;再來是優化產品組合、提升產品附加價值;最後是發展新技術,為高成長奠定基礎。
由於設備折舊占面板生產成本比重高達15%至20%,將產能利用率提升更高,就可降低折舊攤提壓力。彭雙浪先前曾表示,2012年大尺寸面板需求將比2011年成長10%,友達會增加面板出貨量,但不是擴增新產能,而是視需求提升產能利用率。
彭雙浪曾說,12月的產能利用率約75至80%,2012年目標是提高至90%,這個目標應該在2011年內實現,但面板市況變化太劇烈,不得不降低產能利用率以嚴控庫存。
在優化產品組合、提升附加價值方面,彭雙浪認為,面板要往高單價、高附加價值生產,才能提升整體平均價格,創造更佳的利潤。
例如友達致力發展單片玻璃觸控面板(OGS),第四季開始出貨平板電腦用的面板,並開發出27吋觸控面板,厚度僅有0.7mm,為全球最大、最薄的OGS觸控面板,內嵌式(In-Cell)觸控預計在2012年第二季量產。
他認為,搭上觸控面板的液晶面板產品,單價比光銷售液晶面板高出一倍以上,不僅能滿足客戶需求,對提升友達整體產品平均單價,營收與獲利均大有幫助。
在新技術方面,友達明年也將大幅擴張。彭雙浪表示,2010年已收購日本東芝移動顯示(TMD)位於新加坡的4.5代低溫多晶矽(LTPS)廠,並持續增資改造,未來將生產智慧型手機用的螢幕等產品。
至於熱門的主動有機激發光面板(AMOLED),將自2012年第二季量產,成為新的事業支柱,產品以4至5吋的手機螢幕為主,將採用LTPS做背板。
友達AMOLED是利用遮罩(Shadow Masking)方式蒸鍍RGB三原色,解析度可達250至300ppi,先在新竹3.5代線量產,2013年下半起新加坡4.5代廠將加入量產陣容。
展望2012年,彭雙浪希望以提升稼動率、提升產品附加價值,以及發展最新的技術三方面,帶領友達擺脫2011年史上最大虧損的陰霾。


全文網址: 彭雙浪三招 要讓友達轉盈 | 科技產業 | 財經產業 | 聯合新聞網 http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN3/6804313.shtml#ixzz1hc1eCZy6
Power By udn.com 

2011年12月24日 星期六

Half a billion dollars: why Apple's acquisition of Anobit matters

Half a billion dollars: why Apple's acquisition of Anobit matters
Apple reportedly acquired the Israeli flash memory design firm Anobit in a deal that cost the company $500 million dollars. Anobit management told its staff of the acquisition this week, according to Israeli newspaperCalcalist, after Apple's head of R&D visited the company's headquarters last week. Additionally, Apple is supposedly planning to build a research center in Israel as well, conveniently located in a hotbed of silicon design.
The acquisition is one of the most expensive for Apple since it acquired NeXT in 1996—15 years ago to the day, in fact—and should cement the company's strategic shift to solid-state flash storage for its products.

Apple and flash storage, sitting in a tree

Apple began standardizing on flash storage for its mobile devices with the launch of its iPod nano in 2005. Since then, the company has continually relied on pre-paying for huge stocks of NAND flash supply to keep its iPods, iPhones, and iPads in constant production.
Apple has been transitioning its laptops to rely on flash storage, too—albeit much more slowly due to themuch higher costs of SSDs compared to traditional hard drives. That transition began with the launch of an SSD-equipped MacBook Air in 2008. In 2010, Apple revised and expanded the MacBook Air line andstandardized on SSDs for all models. None of its MacBook Pro laptops come standard with an SSD (yet), but it has been offering flash storage as a build-to-order option for a couple years.
(SSDs remain a built-to-order only option for its desktop computers too, including the Mac Pro, iMac, and Mac mini, but desktops continually represent a smaller minority of Apple's sales quarter after quarter.)
As many Ars readers know, flash storage offers three major advantages for mobile devices: the lack of mechanical parts mean there's less to break, especially if a device gets bumped or dropped. Flash storage also typically uses less power than spinning magnetic media. And finally, its high speed means less bottlenecks for the lower-powered processors typically used in smaller devices, as well as "instant-on" capabilities.
But flash storage does have some drawbacks as well. One we already mentioned is cost—a 480GB SSD costs about $800, while a 500GB hard drive runs just over $100. Packing more storage into a smaller space also requires state of the art technology, so getting more storage space for an iPhone or MacBook Air can bump the cost differential even higher.
Additionally, flash storage reliability drops quickly with long-term use. Single-level cell designs last up to several years, but the multi-level cell designs that have increased in popularity for mobile devices due to increased storage density actually decrease the useable life span of flash chips.

Anobit to the rescue

That's where Anobit and its technology come in. Anobit has developed unique technologies that can increase the reliability of multi-level cell designs. In fact, Apple already uses an Anobit-designed DSP chip in iPhones, iPads, and MacBook Airs to extend the life of the NAND flash chips in those devices.
Anobit—like Apple's other recent silicon design acquisitions, PA Semi and Intrinsity—is a fabless design house. Its specialty is creating, testing, and verifying new designs that implement its technological innovations, and then licensing the designs to companies like Apple. By buying up Anobit, Apple can keep its flash storage improvement technologies all to itself as a competitive advantage.
Still, Apple will have to hire contract fabs or other manufacturers to build chips using the improved designs. Given the headaches that Samsung, Apple's top chip supplier, has caused Apple in the smartphone marketplace, the Anobit acquisition is perhaps another sign that Apple is prepared to drop Samsung altogetherand move production of in-house designed custom silicon to someone like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.
Furthermore, building an R&D center in Israel will put Apple among other top tech giants that have located research centers near "Technion," or Israel's Institute of Technology. That will also put Apple's silicon design team in close proximity to partners like Intel and Qualcomm.
The basic hardware of the iPhone isn't hard to replicate—an ARM-based processor, NAND flash, Qualcomm baseband, a touch screen, and a handful of largely off-the-shelf parts are fairly easy to come by these days. But highly optimized designs for efficient, low-power operation and long-term reliability don't come cheap. With Apple able to leverage its own in-house expertise and contracting out production in the kind of volume that Apple sees with the iPhone, iPad, and MacBook Air, it can afford to integrate those optimizations into its products while still maintaining market-competitive prices and market-leading profits.

2011年12月23日 星期五

How the iPhone Zapped Carriers

DECEMBER 21, 2011 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By ANTON TROIANOVSKI
Americans are glued to their mobile devices, obsessively calling, texting, emailing and downloading applications. So why is the U.S. wireless industry in such straits, as shown by AT&T Inc.'s crucial but failed plan to buy T-Mobile USA?
A big reason is that carriers are losing power to the device and software makers riding the smartphone boom.

Tony Avelar/Bloomberg
An advertisement for Apple's iPhone 4S at a Sprint Nextel Corp. store in Palo Alto, Calif.

They're saddled with rising capital costs while much of the profit growth continues to accrue to Apple Inc., manufacturers using Google Inc.'s Android software, and companies making popular wireless apps. And carries haven't figured out the most profitable way to charge consumers for their greater use of data.
In short: Device makers and app developers are having the fun, while the carriers are doing the grunt work.
The wireless industry has always been capital intensive, but the recent move to build faster and more reliable networks to support a deluge of data has weighed on these carriers.
Now that AT&T's pursuit of T-Mobile is over, those two companies are expected to join the rest of the industry in mulling expensive deals for rights to the airwaves—a game that's become a lot more difficult in recent weeks after Verizon Wireless spent nearly $4 billion purchasing spectrum rights from four different cable companies.
The U.S. wireless industry spent $24.9 billion on capital investments like networks and infrastructure in 2010, the highest annual total since 2005, according to industry trade organization CTIA.
But in 2010, AT&T and Verizon Wireless were the only companies to earn a return on their wireless network investments greater than their cost of capital, according to Bernstein Research.
More

Deutsche Telekom Hunts for a Plan B
Heard: Trouble on the Verizon for AT&T
At the same time, the rapid rise of Apple's iPhone franchise reflects many of the challenges the telecom industry faces even as Americans' reliance on their phones grows.
Wall Street analysts have projected AT&T's wireless profit margins in the fourth quarter will be the worst in at least four years, despite AT&T saying it would sell more smartphones—including the iPhone 4S—than any other quarter.
That's because every time a new iPhone model comes out, it's the carriers—not consumers—that shell out the biggest bucks. Analysts estimate that carriers pay Apple a subsidy of about $400 each time a consumer buys an iPhone with a two-year contract.
AT&T and other wireless carriers say that subsidizing the iPhone heavily amounts to an investment that will make their customers more likely to stay and increase the amount of money they're willing to spend for the carrier's services. But some analysts say those benefits have yet to materialize.
At AT&T, Nomura Securities analyst Michael McCormack says, the profit margins on wireless service haven't meaningfully improved since the company started carrying the iPhone in 2007.
"For the most part, it's really been a wealth transfer from AT&T shareholders to Apple shareholders," said Mr. McCormack, who predicts AT&T's fourth-quarter profit margin will fall to 30% from 44% in the third quarter.
Apple missed financial expectations in its latest quarter due to a delay in the iPhone 4S launch, but sales of iPhones and iPads continue to surge, driving earnings up 54% over a year ago to $6.62 billion.
For the wireless carriers, average revenue per user has been falling in recent years despite increased smartphone adoption as the companies added more connections for lower-revenue devices like e-readers and tablet computers. In the third quarter, wireless carriers were being paid $46.09 a month by the average user, $2 less than a year before, according to UBS AG.
While carriers have to pay higher subsidies for smartphones such as the iPhone, such devices allow carriers to charge customers for data plans. Google's free Android software for smartphones also helped drive smartphone sales and boosted demand for wireless bandwidth even more.
Just in the last year, the amount of wireless data consumed monthly more than tripled among teens and doubled for just about every other age group, according to Nielsen.
Meanwhile, revenue from voice calls, which take up far less bandwidth than, say, watching a YouTube clip, has been declining for years. And even extremely profitable text messaging is threatened by new applications, like Apple's iMessage, that allow smartphone users to interact without racking up texting charges.
Now, carriers are seeking to forge a new pricing model that allows them to monetize surging data usage. Before the smartphone boom, many carriers sold data access on an unlimited basis, making it hard for them to profit.
Earlier this year, Verizon followed AT&T in implementing a tiered data plan, in which heavier users of data pay more.
In trying to buy T-Mobile, AT&T bet that government officials would see the wireless industry's difficulties amid the smartphone boom as a justification for allowing the second-largest industry player to buy the No. 4 player. Regulators didn't see it that way.
Now, analysts say AT&T will have to pull out its checkbook and spend billions more to acquire spectrum rights and invest in building capacity on its network.
For AT&T's smaller competitors, things are even tougher. AT&T and Verizon Wireless earn roughly 80% of the industry's profits and have fared better in adjusting to the smartphone boom than smaller competitors.
The giants are able to use their scale to provide broader coverage and land access, sometimes exclusive, to the hottest devices, such as the iPhone and choice Android phones from device makers like HTC Corp.
The third-largest carrier, Sprint Nextel Corp., decided this year that it needed to carry the iPhone as well. But to do it, Sprint had to commit to paying Apple $15.5 billion for the devices, whether or not it could find buyers for them. The company acknowledged that subsidizing a customer buying an iPhone would cost 40%, or about $200, more than another kind of phone, on average.
T-Mobile, meanwhile, is the only one of the top four carriers that isn't selling the iPhone, one reason for its customer losses. In the first nine months of the year, T-Mobile lost 850,000 contract customers.
Write to Anton Troianovski at anton.troianovski@wsj.com

2011年12月17日 星期六

The Shine Is Off Asian Properties

DECEMBER 16, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL




HONG KONG—Real-estate prices are falling across much of Asia as government measures to rein in once-booming prices start to bite and the slowing global economy hits export-dependent economies.
[ASIAPROP]
The slowdown ends years of increases that have driven prices up by 70% or more since the start of 2009 in the hottest markets, spurred by strong economic growth and an influx of investors, many of them foreign, who view Asian real estate as an investment that is relatively immune to the global financial turmoil.
Markets such as Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore and Sydney are all seeing outright price declines, while prices are flat in Seoul. In smaller markets, prices are flat in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur. In Japan, land prices are down for the 20th consecutive year.
[asiaprop]Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
A luxury tower in Hong Kong, where prices in July fell for the first time in three years.
Few expect a property bust like in the U.S., though real-estate developers could suffer as sales volumes tumble, leaving them unable to pay off their lenders. Residential sales volume in China, for example, fell 3.3% in November from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, following an 11.6% drop in October.
Strong demand in many markets such as China is expected to underpin prices. The exception is Singapore, which is the one market where some analysts think price declines could hit 30% in the next three years.
More than 100,000 new residential units in Singapore are expected to be completed in the next three years, according to Standard Chartered analysts. The construction boom comes as prices have risen 70% in the past five years, prompting the government to impose taxes on sales to foreigners or on locals buying multiple units. Foreigners, mostly Chinese, Indonesian, Malaysian and Indian, made up 36% of all new-home sales so far this year.
"From late 2012 we believe the sector's structural issues—rising levels of unsold inventory due to robust launch schedules coupled with a formidable pipeline of completions—will continue to depress rents and capital markets," said David Lum, an analyst for Daiwa Capital Markets, in a recent report.
While Singapore's official government residential-property indexes show that prices edged up in the city-state last quarter from the quarter before, property consulting company CBRE Group Inc. said average luxury-home prices in the third quarter fell close to 2% from the previous quarter. Data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority shows the number of vacant apartments is climbing.
The declines often can be blamed on governments looking to cool soaring property markets in part to quell anger by residents who have been priced out of the market.
Real-estate prices are on the decline in many Asian cities. Richard Price, Asia-Pacific CEO of CBRE Investments, joins Asia Today to discuss which markets are the best bets for aspiring property investors.
While some of the region's developers and investors are hoping that governments may roll back their property-cooling measures, others say concerns about property bubbles will force governments to keep their restrictions in place. "Right now, to many of the governments including China and Singapore, they see more risks in asset bubble forming than a sharp fall in housing prices," said Jinsong Du, an analyst at Credit Suisse.
In China, where the government has clamped down on speculation in the housing market, average property prices in 70 Chinese cities posted their first monthly decline in October.
"We still see a strong medium-, long-term demand for residential developments in China because people always want to upgrade or improve their living standards," said Justin Chiu, executive director of Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., the property flagship of Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, which has increased its presence in China in recent years.
Hong Kong, which has seen home prices surge almost 75% since the beginning of 2009, recorded its first fall in property prices in three years in July. From July to October, prices fell 4%. In November, the number of residential property transactions in Hong Kong fell 64% from a year earlier, according to Land Registry data.
"The drops in home prices in China and Hong Kong are moderate partly because there are simply not that many transactions. Property owners are holding onto their properties and refusing to sell them cheap in bad times," said Nicole Wong, regional head of property research at brokerage firm CLSA.
Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang said Friday that the government's measures to curb speculative activity, including an additional tax on buyers who sell within two years of purchase, will remain in place.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Viktor Vo of Hungary powers his boat across Marina Bay with the skyline of Singapore in the background on November 18, 2011.
Australian property prices have fallen steadily this year, stopping a multidecade run higher. In the most recent statistics available, home values fell a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in October from September, according to RP Data-Rismark. Price declines have been worse in flood-ravaged Brisbane and mining boomtown Perth.
In Southeast Asia, real-estate prices in Kuala Lumpur are expected to follow Singapore lower, while Bangkok, where the market was already weak, was hurt by Thailand's worst floods in 50 years. The two healthiest markets appear to be Jakarta, boosted by local demand, and Manila, by strong remittances from abroad.
Prices of homes in the Seoul metropolitan area rose by only 0.6% from January to November this year, while construction-related investments fell from the second quarter of 2010 to the third quarter of this year.
—Geoff Rogow in Sydney, Miho Inada in Tokyo and Se Young Lee in Seoul contributed to this article.

上銀科技 發展先進技術力

2011/12/14  

【撰文/劉建宏】
「這款重負荷的滾珠螺桿可承受比一般標準高出二、三倍以上的負荷,除了具備高加減速特性,使用壽命也較長,如全電式射出成型機、半導體製造裝置、沖壓機和CNC加工機等都會使用到,」上銀董事長卓永財指著自家產品驕傲地說著。
上銀主要產品包括滾珠螺桿、線性滑軌及工業用機器人,而旗下子公司大銀微系統則負責線性馬達和位置量測系統等,應用範圍涵蓋了電子業的半導體晶圓搬送和平面顯示器檢測等自動化設備。就連印刷、醫療、軍事、交通運輸等生活大小面向皆需要用到上銀的傳動控制系統,上銀甚至是全亞洲唯一擁有線性馬達全面量產能力的公司。
一切看似如「黑手產業」的表面,卻是最高科技的。例如滾珠螺桿與線性滑軌可說是所有精密機械的關鍵零組件,越精密的機械,越需要高階的移動器具來仔細定位,只要一個位置沒對準,足以嚴重影響生產過程的良率,因此各行業在升級自動化設備時絕對少不了它們。
堅守「台灣製造」的上銀,在傳統精密儀器大國日本、德國夾擊下殺出一條血路,搶下三星、索尼、夏普等國際客戶。甚至像是iPhone上多個孔洞,靠的也是上銀的滾珠螺桿跟線性滑軌,才能精準定位鑽孔。
用技術拚高下
「只要掌握高度利基性的製程和技術,小企業也有機會與機械大廠一拚高下。」1983年,卓永財任職的銀行,委派他整頓財務告急的三星五金,他花了一整年蹲在生產線了解流程與技術,雖然辛苦,卻也見識到金屬加工產業的商機。
也因為這段經歷,雖然是金融業出身,但自1989年創立上銀開始,卓永財一直對產品技術創新有相當的執著和堅持。1993年,上銀成立才四年,卓永財就購併了德國一家倒閉的滾珠螺桿廠,為的是快速獲取技術。
此外,為了進軍全球市場,上銀更買下國外大廠的關鍵技術,強化自身體質,比方購併以色列驅動器與控制系統廠Mega-F、買下製造螺紋磨床的英國Metrix,拿到了製造滾珠螺桿最重要的設備技術等。如同卓永財所說:「滾珠螺桿和線性滑軌未來仍可以不斷被改良,變得更精密,還有更多意想不到的地方。」
舉例來說,為了因應全球先進國家面臨人口老化的問題,最近上銀便替德國第二大工業集團蒂森克虜伯(ThyssenKrupp)研發出新式的家用電梯,這裡頭採用了上銀的直驅式馬達製程技術,搭配傳動功能良好的滾珠螺桿一起使用,不僅沒有油壓式電梯容易漏油的環保問題,與一般鋼纜式電梯相比,還可減少電機室空間,具有降低成本、能源使用效率高及安全性穩定等優點。
上銀也將線性滑軌及滾珠螺桿應用在醫療領域,例如病床的自動升降調整器、血液細胞攝影機、癌症開刀等精密儀器,還有研發多年終於量產、適合小切口進行的外科微創手術開刀機械手臂等。
這些新領域的應用並非憑空想像而來,成立至今已超過20年的上銀,連年獲選為全國專利研發百大之企業,手中共握有超過800件的專利,數量已直逼國際級同業。就連卓永財也有多項個人發明專利,得到國家產品創新獎肯定。
「一個產業如果真的要有長期競爭力,一定要做基礎研發,」卓永財指出。目前上銀的全球市占率已直追前二大的日本競爭對手NSK和THK,但他仍每年親自參與國際上每一場重大的研討會和展覽活動,到最前線去了解市場狀況和未來的新應用趨勢。
為了更快掌握新的技術發發展,上銀還在德國、莫斯科、東京三地設立研發中心,並與加州大學柏克萊分校合作。此外,卓永財自八年前也開始在台灣舉辦機械碩士論文獎,每年砸1千萬元經費,除了提供獎金外,他還安排歷年得獎師生,專程前往日本參觀工具機大展JIMTOF、豐田產業技術紀念館、日本工具機製造大廠OKUMA大隈與MAZAK。今年更將觸角延伸至兩岸四地,擴大舉辦機械博士論文獎,每年投資在研發部分的經費就占到營業額的5%~10%,「我希望能有效扭轉大家視機械業為黑手產業的刻板印象,讓更多年輕人願意投身其中!」

2011年12月3日 星期六

金磚四國之父談歐債與中國股市

2011年 11月 23日   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


巴倫週刊

盛資產管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)董事長吉姆•奧尼爾(Jim O'Neill)上週就動盪的歐洲市場、成長型市場的魅力以及對股市的預期發表了自己的看法。

《巴倫週刊》:你認為歐元危機會以怎樣的形式發展?

奧尼爾:我們或是需要減少成員國的數量﹐或是加大融合的力度。這並非一次信貸危機﹐而是一場有關歐洲貨幣聯盟(European Monetary Union)結構和領導力的危機。這和婚姻一樣﹐只有當某方面出問題時﹐你才能判斷出其牢固程度。無論《馬斯特里赫特條約》(Maastricht Treaty)的具體標準是什麼﹐各國還是成功地加入了歐盟﹐有關經濟增長和穩定公約的具體規則並未發揮作用。歐洲國家需要更多真正的融合才能把歐盟變成類似歐羅巴合眾國(United States of Europe)那樣的實體﹐否則歐盟無法存續。不過﹐這並不容易。因為很明顯歐洲各國同美國各州並不相同﹐民眾也不會就成立合眾國一事進行投票。一個有趣的變化是﹐德國執政黨基督教民主聯盟(Christian Democratic Union)倒是在原則上樂意支持成員國脫離歐盟。

將來不也會出現任何明確的自願選擇。在歐洲貨幣聯盟內部﹐希臘和葡萄牙可能最不夠格。但如果你允許希臘和葡萄牙脫離歐元區﹐那麼市場會因地中海沿岸所有國家都有可能脫離歐元區而發生暴跌。我不確定如果沒有意大利﹐歐洲貨幣聯盟是否還會存在。意大利南部的情況很差﹐但北部的情況則不錯﹐甚至能和德國與法國的大部分地區競爭。

《巴倫週刊》:你怎麼看意大利新總理及其恢復穩定的措施?市場因此恢復穩定了嗎?

Goldman Sachs
高盛資產管理公司董事長奧尼爾
奧尼爾:我非常瞭解意大利總理蒙蒂(Mario Monti)。我是歐洲經濟智庫Bruegel的董事會成員﹐而蒙蒂則是該智庫首任主席。作為一名技術性官僚﹐在所有可供選擇的候選人中﹐蒙蒂是最優秀的。而且他的觀點非常傾向歐洲。但一位非民選官員能否真的領導意大利支持某些艱難的選擇?眼下我所見到的情況是歐洲央行(European Central Bank)又一次錯失了更加積極地支持意大利債券市場的機會。歐洲央行應該採取更傳統的量化寬鬆政策﹐它必須更積極地介入歐洲的核心地帶。歐洲央行具有獨立性且從原則上保護這種獨立性是件好事﹐但如果歐洲貨幣聯盟不復存在﹐那麼歐洲央行還有什麼獨立性需要保護呢?今年8月瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)在危機前干預匯市就是一個突出的例子。瑞士央行打壓瑞士法郎幣值並聲明說他們會動用無上限資源的做法收效明顯。瑞士法郎下跌了20%﹐當然瑞士央行幾乎沒有付出任何代價。讓我驚訝的是歐洲央行竟然沒有類似清晰的目標。如果歐洲央行任由意大利債券市場自行發展﹐人們擔心的銀行業問題將會變得更糟。比如美聯儲(Fed)就不會以堅持原則為由任由事態發展。

《巴倫週刊》:歐洲貨幣聯盟得以存續的幾率有多大?

奧尼爾:在未來五年的時間里﹐歐洲貨幣聯盟還將繼續存在﹐但前提是意大利沒有脫離歐元區。但歐洲貨幣聯盟的前路坎坷。意大利是歐洲核心地區的一個大型經濟體﹐意大利北部的競爭力幾乎不輸給任何一個國家。沒有意大利﹐歐洲貨幣聯盟就不存在﹐因為德國企業堅持意大利必須留在歐洲貨幣聯盟內。

《巴倫週刊》:投資者又該如何在歐洲市場賺錢?

奧尼爾:你所投資的對象是評級甚高的歐洲各國政府﹐尤其是德國。更為有意思的一面是股票市場。在過去兩週內﹐歐洲市場和全球股市對歐洲債務問題的敏感度大大降低。現在股價相當便宜。你要稍稍往前看﹐假設我說的是正確的﹐並相信會有解決方案﹐歐洲貨幣聯盟能夠存續﹐未來歐洲股價會大幅回升。

你必須要考慮到希臘發生債務違約的可能性。如果不發生重大違約﹐希臘是無法贏得當前的挑戰並挺過更多的財政緊縮。明年一季度末前可能就會發生這種情況。我不確定希臘是否會退出歐洲貨幣聯盟﹐但我認為希臘違約的後果是可控的。我也不認為葡萄牙發生債務違約是不可避免的事情。阿根廷當年的情況就是一個參照:2002年阿根廷貶值比索併發生債務違約。接下來近兩年的時間內﹐阿根廷的情況繼續惡化。有人擔心這會影響週邊市場﹐但實際情況是各個市場都在反彈﹐尤其是巴西。當然﹐阿根廷股市的表現也很好。

《巴倫週刊》:讓我們換個話題。你發明瞭“金磚四國”這個詞﹐指的是巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國。

奧尼爾:我是發明瞭“金磚四國”這個詞。它改變了我的職業生涯。政治領導人創建的金磚四國俱樂部是我從未料到的。順便說一句﹐他們還沒有邀請我參加他們的會議。創建獨立的金磚四國基金的想法純粹是一個意外所獲。

但金磚四國還不夠。

一年前﹐我發明瞭“成長型市場”這個詞﹐因為我的新工作是擔任高盛資產管理公司董事長。我震驚於退休基金對世界的看法有多保守和謹慎﹐此外﹐儘管“金磚四國”這個詞已經很流行﹐人們仍然把新興市場視為災難。他們的看法大錯特錯。發明這個詞的目的就是要幫助高盛資產管理公司的5,000名員工認識到世界在出現怎樣的變化﹐並通過他們﹐讓我們的客戶也認識到這一點。

成長型市場的八個國家包括金磚四國﹐還有印度尼西亞、韓國、墨西哥和土耳其。這八個國家每個都佔了全球GDP的1%或更多。這就是成長型市場的定義。本世紀的第二個10年﹐這些國家總的GDP將增長16萬億美元﹐比美國和歐洲加在一起多了約一倍。當他們在推動世界經濟時﹐人們為什麼還要稱其為新興市場呢?正因為如此﹐我將這些國家稱為成長型市場。你不能再像過去那樣看待新興市場了。

至於人均GDP﹐有些國家確實屬於“新興”範疇。

顯然﹐由於財富因素﹐這些國家不同於七大工業國(G7)。但有些國家並不比G7差很多。目前﹐韓國人均GDP為兩萬美元﹐巴西為1.5萬美元。如果你等到這些國家像G7一樣富裕的時候﹐就已經失去了投機機會。如果這些國家會像G7一樣富裕﹐下一個10年他們將是最好的投資。

《巴倫週刊》:他們沒有受到歐洲危機的影響嗎?那些為項目管理提供資金的銀行又怎麼樣呢?

奧尼爾:其他很多金融機構和私募股權人士應該將這視為一個機會。對於成長型市場和世界其他地方來說﹐最重要的地方是中國。而中國的情況取決於通貨膨脹。最近有強有力的證據表明﹐中國當局從一定程度上對本土銀行借貸放鬆了控制﹐特別是對小機構的控制。這對中國來說無疑很重要﹐中國在成長型市場的發展中佔主導地位。土耳其是最容易受到歐洲銀行業問題沖擊的國家。但歐洲危機是一場北大西洋危機﹐而不是一場全球危機。

《巴倫週刊》:你認為中國的增長情況會如何?

奧尼爾:未來12個月﹐金磚四國以美元計算的經濟總值將增長2萬億美元。這相當於又產生了一個意大利﹐不過﹐如果這些國家的通貨膨脹率不斷飆升﹐則不會實現這樣的增長。最近最重要的新聞是中國消費者價格指數(CPI)。非常有趣的是中國股市又經歷了一次大幅飆升。如果明年一季度之前中國無法將通貨膨脹率控制在4%以下﹐將越來越難以保持7%、8%或更高的增長率。他們今年的問題不是歐債危機。很多國家的通貨膨脹看來開始回落﹐這個事實無疑是好消息。有點奇怪的是﹐歐洲危機帶來了額外的好處﹐這是因為危機幫助拉低了大宗商品價格。

《巴倫週刊》:那麼﹐中國是否實現了軟著陸?

奧尼爾:現在下結論還有些為時過早﹐但過去一個月的證據明顯支持這一觀點。下個月的通貨膨脹就可能輕易地再降一個百分點。這樣﹐下個月的通貨膨脹就會降到5%以下。如果在下個月中旬之前出現我所說的這種情況﹐中國股市將早已經進一步大幅飆升了。

《巴倫週刊》:世界其他地方的情況會怎樣?

奧尼爾:歐洲已經處於衰退之中。儘管如此﹐我認為明年全球經濟增長率將接近4%。我在這個行業就要滿30個年頭了﹐期間增長率一直是3.6%。如果全球經濟增長接近4%﹐就可以證實歐洲並不是推動世界經濟或世界市場的動力。我認為﹐股市牛市開始於2009年﹐開始於後危機時期﹐主要是因為金磚四國和美聯儲的貨幣政策﹐因為他們﹐世界經濟增速才接近4%。如果在中國、金磚四國和成長型市場的推動下﹐明年的世界經濟增速接近4%﹐而美聯儲政策相對寬鬆﹐那麼股市只有在持續不斷的壞消息的打壓下才會下挫。

《巴倫週刊》:美聯儲會認為有必要推出第三輪量化寬鬆政策嗎?

奧尼爾:美國今年7月和8月的經濟狀況要好於很多人的預期。不妨看看美國最近首次申請失業救濟人數﹐回顧我大部分職業生涯﹐這是個很好的指標。我認為美國的經濟增速將在2%至3%之間。如果美國政府針對房地產市場推出一些舉措(看似很有可能)﹐美國的經濟增速可能會再次超出常規趨勢﹐躍至3%以上。

與目光狹隘的歐洲形成喜人對比的是﹐美聯儲清楚地知道自身偏向:如果美國重現7月曾短暫出現的疲態﹐它就會求助於第三輪量化寬鬆政策。但我不確定目前是否有這個必要。為了印證美聯儲的偏見有多強烈﹐你大可以想象﹐美聯儲可能會把名義GDP目標設定在4.5%或5%﹐也就是說﹐通貨膨脹率目標是2%﹐實際GDP目標為3%。這對市場來說將是非常有力的支撐。在我看來﹐未來六個月內﹐美聯儲推出第三輪量化寬鬆政策的幾率是50%。

《巴倫週刊》:再回頭說說股市吧。

奧尼爾:不管是發達市場、成長市場還是新興市場﹐股票估值看起來都相當低。當然﹐這表明投資者看法悲觀。我喜歡關注一年期預期市盈率﹐通過這個指標我可以瞭解市場的趨勢。美國股市的一年期預期市盈率目前不到12倍。歐洲所有單一股市的一年期預期市盈率都是個位數。中國不到10倍。只有印度和印尼兩國的股票看起來不那麼便宜。一個更為保守的指標是平均週期調整後市盈率(CAPE)。

在主導世界股市的15個國家中﹐大部分國家目前的CAPE都比長期CAPE低30%到60%。

在任何一個特定時期﹐股票風險溢價很可能都是瞭解以五年為一個週期的股票形勢的最佳指南。目前﹐這一數字約為過去30年均值的兩倍﹐部分原因在於金磚五國(BRICs)的增長。在債券實際收益率如此之低的情況下﹐股票風險溢價創出紀錄。在我看﹐這說明未來五年股票風險溢價將再次大幅降低﹐而這種情況將僅出現在債券收益率大幅上揚或股票表現極好(後一種的可能性更大)的時候。

《巴倫週刊》:從現在到年底之間這段時間﹐股市的表現會如何呢?

奧尼爾:目前看﹐有三大問題。中國內地通脹情況的改善讓中國股市處於升勢的幾率越來越大。在美國股市方面﹐我認為美國國會超級委員會那幫家伙不管怎樣會弄出個東西交差的。這對美國股市上漲也是個利好消息。至於歐洲﹐在徹底解決希臘債務違約問題之前﹐人們仍會在股市上躊躇不前。三大股市中﹐有兩個都表明形勢即將好轉。所以說﹐讓市場下跌很難。市場上有這麼多資金﹐而人們卻如此悲觀。全球股市將再漲20%至25%。

《巴倫週刊》:在一切問題都高度相關的情況下﹐你應如何投資?

奧尼爾:很難。具有諷刺意味的是﹐中國與美國的關聯度沒有那麼高﹐這也是為什麼投資者對投資中國應該持更開放的態度。其次﹐人們要麼須關注不同的金融投資工具﹐要麼就得尋找有真正特色的市場。我們生活在這樣一個世界里:人人都很偏執﹐人人也都知道自己能失去什麼。為了能最終回報客戶﹐你必須遠離很多所謂的市場基準指標。

另外﹐可在一定程度反映我個人一貫偏見的是﹐外匯市場是擺脫這種相關資產市場理論的好方法。看看過去三個月瑞士法郎的情況吧。該貨幣估值過高﹐而且已經達到了一種極端的水平﹐很明顯瑞士當局會採取措施扭轉這種走勢。另外﹐美元兌日圓匯率也將出現大逆轉。當投資者意識到美國經濟不會繼續走弱時﹐市場就不會希望繼續持有日圓。

《巴倫週刊》:除此之外﹐你還希望投資點什麼呢?

奧尼爾:中國股市﹐因為中國股票的估值的確很有吸引力﹐在經歷了艱難的12個月後﹐中國股市走向了正確的道路。在成長型市場中﹐我最不喜歡印尼。我不認為印尼股市的波動幅度像人們想的那麼大﹐今年到目前為止﹐印尼股市仍處於上漲狀態。根據定義來看﹐歐洲金融股似乎非常便宜﹐特別是地中海俱樂部(Club Med Europe)成員的金融股。

《巴倫週刊》:謝謝你﹐奧尼爾。

LESLIE P. NORTON

本文譯自《巴倫週刊》

2011年12月2日 星期五

Global trade flows shift to Asia

2 December 2011   FinanceAsia


Rupert Walker 

Global trade will continue heading eastwards and intra-regional trade in Asia will lead to a renewed concentration of global demand, according to an Ernst & Young paper published in conjunction with Oxford Economics this week.
The total value of international trade is set to increase from 30% to 37% of world GDP by 2020, while the balance of that trade is likely to shift permanently to the East. World trade in goods will total around $35 trillion, two-and-a-half times its value in 2010, and in services it will double to about $6 trillion. Asia-Pacific will experience the fastest rate of growth in global trade, led by China and India, which will alone account for almost one-fifth of global trade flows by 2020.
Although global trade collapsed during the financial crisis, it has since bounced back, led by trade among emerging economies. Global trade was dominated by Western nations at the start of the 1990s, but their share has declined markedly and this trend is set to continue through to 2020.
“While the advanced economies continue to battle through the financial crisis, the rapid-growth markets are going from strength to strength and are an increasingly significant part of the global economy. They will become an even more dominant force in global trade and as a result businesses are going to have to adjust their strategies to reflect the increasingly regional pattern of world trade that is developing and will intensify over the next decade,” said Gerard Dalbosco, managing partner, Asia-Pacific markets, at Ernst & Young
Measured at current market exchange rates, the global GDP share of the emerging markets is set to increase from around 34% in 2010 to 48% by 2020. China’s share alone is forecast to surge from 9% to nearly 20% over this period. These gains will be at the expense of the advanced economies.
The analysis for the report, called Trading places — the emergence of new patterns of international trade, applied Oxford Economics’ suite of global economic and industry models, and included a survey of 690 senior executives across 17 different markets, and interviews with business leaders to find out what strategies they are deploying.
India and China will steer the continued rise of the emerging markets and, together, these economies will become more important to global trade than the US and eurozone, concluded the report. Almost half the Asia-based respondents to the survey expect to export more than 60% of their output in five years’ time, compared with less than a fifth of the companies in the Americas.
Asia will still to be the most dynamic region in terms of trade, with the fastest growth of exports in goods occurring within the region itself. A trade cluster within Asia has already been formed and China has now become the most significant export destination for most Asian economies. The increasing importance of regional supply chains is a trend that will help to reinforce the importance of both China and India within the overall pattern of global trade.
“The fastest growth of merchandise exports will occur within Asia itself,” said Dalbosco. “More specifically, it will be China and India that lead this expansion. Our bilateral trade forecasts show the fastest growing trade route lies between these two economies, with Indian exports to China growing at an average annual rate of almost 22%, while flows in the opposite direction expand at an average annual rate of 18.5%.”
India and China also represent the quickest growing source of demand for exports from countries outside the region. The projections show that two of the most rapidly growing trade routes will be US exports to China and India, which Ernst & Young see expanding at an average annual rate of almost 16%. China’s exports to Europe, at more than $1 trillion, will be almost twice as large as US exports to Europe.
In addition, by 2020, the total flow of services trade from Europe to Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) will be bigger than to North America. One of the keys will be the growth of trade in financial services.
Furthermore, Ernst & Young estimates that the shift towards global outsourcing of production, as well as the growth of regional supply chains to serve the rapid expansion of demand from expanding markets, will compress the share of the advanced economies in global trade from a little over 60% in 2010 to around 55% by 2020.
However, Dalbosco warned that with the level of global supply changing so rapidly and demand uncertain, there are a number of alternative scenarios and risks that could threaten or even boost global trade growth.
“Perhaps the most dramatic would be a currency realignment scenario, implying a rebalancing of domestic demand between the US and Asia-Pacific region. This would have significant impacts on projected patterns of trade. Alternatively, even a partial acceleration of trade liberalisation could drive a larger-than-expected rise in global trade flows,” he said.
Meanwhile, the report offers comfort to beleaguered exporters in the US and Europe. Ernst & Young’s forecasts imply that over the next 10 years the US could capitalise on its strength in exporting to Asia, reversing the decline during the past decade. And Europe’s exports to China could rise by $370 billion during the next 10 years.
And China will not be immune from its own vulnerabilities. The country’s dominance in low-end manufactured goods will increasingly come under pressure from lower-cost countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and parts of Africa.
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