石英元件電力足，晶技、泰藝最亮

2011/03/01 10:36 時報資訊 



【時報記者張漢綺台北報導】全球景氣逐漸復甦，平板電腦、智慧型手機、以及雲端市場起飛帶動網通產品及建設加速，讓數位產品最重要脈博發動機－石英元件今年電力十足，隨著石英元件市場需求成長，晶技 (3042) 、希華 (2484) 、泰藝 (8289) 、加高 (8182) 今年營運看好，其中晶技今年合併營收上看110億元，將是國內首家營收突破百億元關卡的石英元件廠，泰藝受惠於國內外網通客戶訂單到手及高毛利產品比重增加，每股盈餘上看3元，可望與晶技成為今年石英元件廠兩大亮點。

一直由日本獨大的石英元件產業近幾年開始出現變化，由於平板電腦、智慧型手機及NB等電子產品幾近90%由台灣大廠代工組裝，台灣代工大廠佔全球石英元件使用率達30%到40%，過去日本製的石英元件經常是國際大廠指定使用，不過台灣系統廠接到訂單，發現日本石英元件供應商跟不上數位產品快速的生命週期，對產量的變化應變能力很差，加上日圓升值後製造成本大增，而國內石英元件廠技術及量產能力卻大幅提升，使得國內石英元件廠逐漸取代日系廠商，在全球市佔率也快速提升，加上智慧型手機使用石英元件從過去的每支約3到5個增加至5到7個，PC/NB的需求量約6到7個，使用量及市佔率的提升，讓國內石英元件廠前景看好。
晶技挾著與國內系統廠緊密連結，且近年來產品陸續通過國際知名品牌大廠如：Apple等認證，成為國際級品牌廠供應商，讓晶技一點一滴啃蝕日本廠商訂單，近年已躋為全球前五大石英元件供應商，在全球市佔率提升，以及Apple的iPhone與iPad等品牌廠產品高度成長、開拓大陸網通市場有成下，晶技近幾年營運呈現高度成長，合併營收自95年的52.06億元大幅成長至99年的96.42億元，獲利除97年及98年受到金融海嘯衝擊，每股盈餘僅3.56元及2.75元，每年均維持在4元以上，99年每股稅前盈餘達4.59元，與合併營收同步創下歷年新高，業績表現亮眼。
除原有的3C產品，晶技也開始朝汽車電子發展，供應汽車中控鎖、後煞車及汽車音響等石英元件產品，目前相關產品佔營收比重約1%，預估今年將會逐漸成長；此外，在新產品部分，晶技亦跨入藍寶石基板市場，根據晶技內部規劃，藍寶石基板事業部將是從長晶、切割到wafer，主要產品規格為4吋，預估今年第1季將購入10台長晶機台，最快下半年投產，今年藍寶石基板營收約1%到2%，公司也將視業務進度逐步擴產，希望3年內將機台擴充到100台，躋身全球前三大供應商。
晶技1月合併營業收入為8.61億元，合併稅前盈餘約1.05億元，以1月底股本29.72億元計算，每股稅前盈餘約0.36元；今年在網通、智慧型手機及平板電腦客戶訂單強勁下，公司預估，今年合併營收有機會較去年成長10%到15%，上看110億元，成為國內首家合併營收突破百億元關卡的石英元件廠。
相較石英元件廠多著墨在一般消費型電子市場，泰藝電子產品鎖定網通設備市場，公司以朝向高階客製化程度高的石英元件與震盪器產品為主，終端產品的應用在網通與網通基礎建設所佔比重最高，包含基地台局端通訊設備、家用HOME DEVICE網通產品等，在硬碟儲存設備上的石英元件亦是公司重要營收來源，目前Telecom Infrastructure及Network為公司發展重心，今年相關產品佔營收比重可望達60%，也成為推升泰藝今年營運重要動能。
隨著平板電腦、NB及家用上網引爆行動通訊及微型基地台需求，Femtocell自去年下半年開始展現強勁成長力道，根據市調機構預估，在微型基地台逐漸成為主流下，預估今年Femtocell全球出貨量將達700萬台，TCXO(溫度補償石英振盪器)受惠於Femtocell需求強勁，今年銷售量可望大幅成長，泰藝電TCXO近期接獲正文及中磊等大訂單，以及國際大廠西門子、阿爾卡特及NEC基地台基礎建設訂單，讓TCXO訂單滿載，由於TCXO毛利率高，隨著出貨比重攀升，加上歐美及大陸積極建設3G基地台，讓泰藝今年的業績相當樂觀。
此外，泰藝併購美國XECO業者，取得半導體黃光製程技術，在台灣樹林廠已架設完成黃光室，屆時將可以半導體製程生產石英晶片，製程上採用一吋的石英晶圓，經由半導體製程可有效縮小產品面積，主要供給高頻的局端產品使用，預估黃光設備在今年1月完全到位生產後，將有助於公司切入高頻與小型化產品。
泰藝去年前3季稅前盈餘為1.67億元，稅後盈餘為1.42億元，每股盈餘為1.87元，儘管去年第4季有匯損因素，法人預估，泰藝去年每股盈餘仍有2元，而今年在網通市場高度成長下，法人預估，泰藝今年營收可望較去年成長15%，由於高毛利產品比重增加，今年獲利將較去年成長50%，每股盈餘可望逾3元。

What the Yield Curve Is Telling Us

FEBRUARY 28, 2011    THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By RICHARD BARLEY

Significant shifts in the economy are often heralded by changes in the shape of government bond yield curves. The U.S., U.K. and German curves are now all flattening together. Usually, that would be good economic news after a downturn: With growth re-established, markets would be anticipating rate increases. But the current picture isn't so straightforward.

The situation may be closest to normal in core Europe. Germany is booming, inflation pressures are starting to show up, and the European Central Bank is making hawkish noises about interest rates. The end result is a classic bear-flattening move: Two-year Bund yields have risen sharply to 1.44% while 10-year yields have risen more gradually to 3.15%, narrowing the gap between the two. That bear-flattening seems likely to continue if Germany continues to steam ahead and the ECB moves towards a rate increase; the bond market move indicates faith in the recovery.

In the U.K., a similar shift has taken place, but there's a twist. The Bank of England, under pressure due to stubbornly high inflation, is also moving toward a rate increase. But some fear the economy is too fragile to withstand higher interest rates given fiscal tightening and the poor state of the housing market. A rate raise could potentially lead ultimately to lower 10-year gilt yields —a so-called bull-flattening—if the fears of the doves at the BOE come to pass and the recovery is damaged.

The U.S. curve, meanwhile, is flipping between bear-steepening and bull-flattening: With two-year yields effectively nailed down as the Federal Reserve is standing pat, all the action is being driven by 10-year Treasury yields. At the start of the year, with hopes for strong U.S. growth, 10-year yields rose in a bear-steepening move; now the Middle East turmoil, the potential oil shock and downgrades in U.S. growth mean 10-year yields have fallen again. Until two-year yields rise, the bond market isn't signaling confidence in the recovery.

Investors need to know what variety of curve shift is under way. A bear-flattening with good growth implies a classical recovery: Risk assets should fare well. A bull-flattening curve implies renewed worries about growth, with potentially increased economic volatility. The worst of all worlds would be a sharp bear-steepening with a lack of growth. That would imply central banks have lost the plot on inflation but haven't succeeded in stimulating the economy: stagflation.

Write to Richard Barley at richard.barley@dowjones.com

For Oil, Libya Burns, but Iraq Smolders

MARCH 1, 2011    THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By LIAM DENNING

Oil investors: Don't forget Iraq. While Libya's clashes dominate the oil market, Iraq will have far more impact on prices in the medium term. This weekend's bomb attack on the Baiji oil refinery was a timely reminder.

Reuters

Baiji is small, processing less than 0.4% of global oil supply. But the attack is troubling for two reasons.

First, it seems just two gunmen temporarily shut down the refinery. Baiji should be better prepared: It was Iraq's No. 1 target for insurgent attacks in the first five years after the U.S. invasion, according to Peter Zeihan at Stratfor, a global intelligence firm.

This feeds into the second reason: Iraq's latent production. Right now, Iraq produces about 2.7 million barrels a day, or just 3% of global supply. But its growth potential is enormous. The International Energy Agency puts Iraq second only to Saudi Arabia in terms of increased oil output by 2035, with Iraq producing another 4.3 million barrels a day by then.

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Reuters

Damaged Baiji oil refinery, north of Baghdad, after a bomb attack on Saturday

That may be conservative. Contracts awarded to foreign oil companies aim to boost Iraqi output from existing fields to more than 11 million barrels daily. Even if that is too ambitious, consultancy JBC Energy expects output to hit almost eight million daily barrels by 2020, 67% higher than the IEA's forecast for that year. In contrast, the IEA saw Libyan output remaining flat even before the current crisis began.

Iraq's potential to alleviate tight oil supply and demand makes its infrastructure a prime target for insurgents. And caught between Iranian, American and Saudi Arabian interests, Iraq's development remains hostage to geopolitical rivalries. Oil investors focused on North Africa shouldn't lose sight of the drama unfolding east of Suez.

Write to Liam Denning at liam.denning@wsj.com

CeBIT展／英特爾新晶片 台積將代工

2011.03.01   【經濟日報╱記者陳碧珠、謝佳雯／台北報導】

經濟日報／提供

英特爾Sandy Bridge平台晶片組瑕疵風暴結束，將在CeBIT「重新出發」，發表下世代個人電腦平台，圖為英特爾Sandy Bridge處理器晶片。 美聯社／提供

處理器龍頭英特爾Sandy Bridge晶片組瑕疵風暴結束，近期恢復大量供貨，並計劃在德國漢諾威電腦展CeBIT「重新出發」，發表下世代個人電腦平台，新平台晶片組將提前委由台積電代工。全球最大電腦展CeBIT預計3月1日登場，英特爾將與合作夥伴共同展示Sandy Bridge電腦平台，並預告提前發布下一代平台Ivy Bridge處理器平台，新產品上市時間從明年第一季提前到今年第四季，Ivy Bridge所採用的晶片組代工訂單提前釋出，為台積電下半年營運增添成長動力。
據了解，Ivy Bridge搭配的7系列南僑晶片Panther Point 採用40奈米製程，台積電若在第四季接獲英特爾代工訂單，今年營運能見度提前看到年底。不過，英特爾不評論Ivy Bridge處理器的上市進度，台積電也不評論客戶的代工策略。上周五台積電以平盤做收，收盤價70.5元。
台積電也為超微代工Zacate及Ontario兩顆加速處理器（APU），採用40奈米製程，這一波英特爾與超微的加速處理器（APU）之戰，台積電將是最大的贏家，也使得台積電40奈米產能利用率居高不下。
CeBIT即將開展，隨著英特爾Sandy Bridge搭配的6系列晶片組恢復正常供貨，包括華碩、宏碁、仁寶等PC/NB大廠，都將在這次CeBIT力推Sandy Bridge新產品。
為了在處理器市場力挽狂瀾，英特爾下世代Ivy Bridge處理器藍圖設計已經完成，PC業界傳出，英特爾將在CeBIT上，對業者口頭預告Ivy Bridge最新進度。
英特爾原本計劃明年第一季推出Ivy Bridge平台，為了扳回一城，傳出英特爾Ivy Bridge推出時間從明年首季提前到今年第四季，迎接開學潮後的換機需求。
值得注意的是，英特爾為確保Sandy Bridge與Ivy Bridge處理器品質與產能供應，加上成本考量，Ivy Bridge處理器搭配的7系列晶片組的南橋晶片Panther Point將提前委外代工。
平板電腦是CeBIT的熱門商品，不少以Android系統的平板電腦也將成為焦點，例如精英計劃推出支援安謀（ARM）架構的平板電腦；由於多家業者包括英偉達、美滿（Marvell）等ARM架構處理器均集中在台積電下單，台積電將搭上CeBIT平板電腦熱潮。

HDI 需求爆炸

2011.03.01 【經濟日報╱記者龍益雲／台北報導】


蘋果的平板電腦iPad 2將上市，確定部分製程採用高階的任意層高密度連接板，為去年下半年本就熱絡的高密度連接板市況再添柴火。

過去高密度連接（HDI）製程以手機為主要應用產品，前幾年全球手機銷售不如預期，擁有HDI製程的印刷電路板（PCB ）廠商直接受到衝擊，但自去年第二季起出現轉機，除蘋果平板電腦iPad採用HDI，其智慧型手機iPhone也掀起手機廠爭相導入HDI更高階的任意層（Any Layer）製程。

任意層在製程中嚴重消耗HDI產能，壓合就要走四次，鑽孔、電鍍則要五次，傳統HDI相關製程則各僅一次，瞬間引爆HDI製程呈現供不應求，相關廠商去年成為台股焦點。

在此趨勢的帶動，提供手機HDI製程的PCB廠華通電腦、楠梓電子、燿華電子、欣興電子受惠，近年HDI產能快速竄升的健鼎科技也因此被明顯加持，相對產能較小的金像電子、柏承科技、定穎電子、南亞電路板都喊產能滿載。

蘋果iPad 2即將亮相，相關PCB廠透露已有部分提升到任意層，再加上今年推出平板電腦的廠商更如雨後春筍，智慧型手機成長依舊可期，HDI今年更呈爆炸性需求，即使PCB廠紛紛擴增產能，高階HDI仍將供不應求。

【2011/03/01 經濟日報】@ http://udn.com/

J.P. Morgan Fund in Talks to Take Twitter Stake

FEBRUARY 27, 2011 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By ANUPREETA DAS And AMIR EFRATI
A fund run by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is in talks with Twitter Inc. to take a minority stake in the rapidly growing microblogging company, people familiar with the matter said.
The investment, which is expected to value Twitter at more than $4 billion, will be made from the bank's new $1.2 billion digital growth fund, these people said. Exact terms of the potential deal couldn't be learned.
Earlier

J.P. Morgan Plans New-Media Fund
Discussions between J.P. Morgan and Twitter are continuing, and there is no guarantee a deal will be struck, the people added.

J.P. Morgan also has purchased a significant amount of Twitter's shares on exchanges for private-company stock, separate from its talks for a direct stake in the company, said a person familiar with the matter.
A Twitter spokesman said the company doesn't comment on interest by other companies. A J.P. Morgan spokesman declined to comment.

J.P. Morgan said in a regulatory filing last week that it had raised $1.2 billion for the new fund, much more than the initial target of between $500 million and $750 million reported by The Wall Street Journal.
The fund, being run out of J.P. Morgan's asset-management unit, will target private Internet and digital-media companies that have an up-and-running business model, steady revenue and cash flow.

Besides the potential deal with Twitter, which was reported earlier by the Financial Times, the J.P. Morgan fund could also be interested in online gaming firm Zynga Inc., which is in discussions to raise nearly $500 million from institutional investors, one of the people familiar with the matter said.

Twitter's revenue and valuation have risen as the company continues to work on ways to translate its more than 200 million registered users into a profitable business. Research firm eMarketer said it expected the San Francisco-based company to generate $150 million in revenue this year, largely from offering marketers the chance to advertise on the site.
Twitter, which was created in 2006 and now has about 350 employees, introduced advertising into its service last year.

Twitter's value has more than quadrupled over the past year or so to nearly $4 billion, based on the last round of financing raised by the company, which was disclosed in December. In low-level, informal talks with potential suitors in recent months, the company has said it is worth an additional several billion dollars, people familiar with the matter have said. Both social-networking company Facebook Inc. and Internet-search behemoth Google Inc. have at times expressed some interest in potentially acquiring Twitter, people familiar with the matter have said.

Two people familiar with the matter recently said Twitter isn't considering any buyout offers, and has told possible suitors it is focused on building an independent company.

Intel Thunderbolt: a closer look

Feb 24th, 2011     Engadget 


By Sean Hollister

So what's this Thunderbolt stuff, and why is it in your new MacBook Pro? Intel just broke it down for us, and now we'll do the same for you. Simply put, Thunderbolt's a familiar-looking port, a brand-new chip, and a cord, which allows devices to pipe two data streams simultaneously -- in both directions -- over a single cable at up to 10 gigabits per second to start, primarily using PCI Express x4 for data and DisplayPort for video. The Thunderbolt controller chip -- required for the system, but Intel says it's hardware-agnostic and doesn't require an Intel processor or chipset to use -- acts as a miniature router of sorts that rapidly switches between the two bidirectional channels of data.

Sounds great, but why would you want to buy into yet another copper cord? Intel defends that Thunderbolt will be backwards and forwards-compatible depending on the cable used. Representatives explained that the basic system can work with any other PCI Express 2.0-compatible I/O system with, say, a FireWire or eSATA adapter doing the dirty work --Intel wouldn't specifically comment on USB 3.0 -- and that the port you'll find in new MacBook Pros and storage devices can actually take an opticalcable when those are cost-effective enough to roll out, because Intel will eventually bake the optical transceivers into the cables themselves. In the meanwhile, you can get up to three meters of range out of a basic cable, plus a fairly generous 10 watts of power over the bus, and since Thunderbolt devices are designed to be daisy-chained, you may be able to get another three meters for each device you add on that sports a pair of the ports.

Though Intel wasn't talking about likely prices for the chips or cables in even the most general terms, Promise and LaCie had prototype devices on hand headed to the market soon -- get a peek at them and a closer look at the cable in our gallery below, and we'll have video up in a little while too.

Oil Need Not Burn Airlines

FEBRUARY 25, 2011    THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By LIAM DENNING

In one way, airlines have moved beyond the aftermath of the financial crisis. But it isn't good news.

The history of airline stocks over the past five years or so can be broken into two periods. Prior to Lehman Brothers' demise in September 2008, the sector moved almost perfectly in opposition to the oil price. After that, the relationship turned on its head, with airline stocks moving up with Brent. This made sense because oil's recovery paralleled those in credit markets and travel.

All this has just changed again. Looked at on a rolling 90-day average, the NYSE Arca Airline Index's positive correlation of 77% with Brent crude oil at the end of December has swung to an inverse correlation of 57% today. Oil's strength has shifted from being an expression of economic growth to a symptom of geopolitical risk, thereby endangering growth itself. Airline stocks have tumbled this week.

Yet barring Libya's violence spreading, particularly to Saudi Arabia or Iran, likely sending fuel prices rocketing, this could be a good time to buy.

Some stocks look cheap, with United Continental Holdingsand Delta Air Lines both trading at about 4.5 times 2012 forecast earnings. Also, yields on airline debt hardly have moved, suggesting fears of oil bringing on a liquidity squeeze remain low.

That's a big difference from 2008, and reflects airlines' progress in consolidating and cutting capacity. Fewer seats provide some leverage for passing on fuel-price increases to passengers. Even if fuel prices stay elevated this year, both Delta and United should have free cash flow after capital expenditure, according to brokerage Soleil Securities. That really would represent a break with the past.

Write to Liam Denning at liam.denning@wsj.com

Japan Struggles With Inflation—and Deflation

FEBRUARY 24, 2011   the wall street journal

By JAMES SIMMS

Japan could do with a little inflation. At home at least.

The nation's companies aren't alone in facing rising input prices. With the price of crude oil, food, iron ore and textiles rising globally, the cost of imports jumped 4.7% in January year-to-year, in yen terms. That was the sharpest increase since July, the central bank said.

But Japanese corporations are alone in having to deal with these rising prices in a deflationary environment at home, which remains the largest market for many of them. The Tokyo consumer price index, a lead indicator for the national index, dropped 0.2% from a year earlier in January, if volatile fresh food prices are excluded.

South Korea sanctions Deutsche Bank over market manipulation, while Japanese companies struggle with rising costs amid a deflationary domestic market. WSJ's Andrew LaVallee and Asia Heard on the Street Editor Mohammed Hadi discuss.

Behind this persistent deflation are some well-known culprits, including a shrinking population and sluggish wage growth. Also undermining domestic demand is that there are fewer full-time jobs available and poverty is on the rise. The ratio of nonpermanent and part-time workers has steadily grown from 29.4% of the labor force in 2002 to 34.3% last year, the government said Monday.

The bottom line, though, is that corporate profit margins are being squeezed. In a deflationary environment, many companies can't raise prices enough to offset the surge in input costs, if at all.

Consider tire maker Bridgestone. To try to offset a $3 billion increase in rubber and steel prices, the company expects to have raised passenger-car tire prices four times in North America in the two years through December. In Europe, it will have raised prices three times. In Japan, just once. This year it expects its operating profit margin to drop to 4.4% from 5.8% in 2010.

Other companies have yet to decide what to do. Instant-noodle maker Nissin Foods Holdings is still considering how to respond to the increased cost of wheat and palm oil. Nissin isn't prone to price rises. In 2008, the last time global food prices were rising to these levels, the company did increase the price of its noodles—for the first time in 17 years.

Not everyone's groaning over the rise in commodities prices. Mining equipment makers such asHitachi Construction Machinery will benefit from sales as commodity exporters rush to increase production while prices are high.

And for those suffering, there is one respite. The strong yen means the situation is far better than it might have been. Those January import prices would have skyrocketed by 14%, rather than only 4.7%, excluding the impact of a stronger yen.

But for Japan Inc., getting the price right is becoming more difficult.

Write to James Simms at james.simms@dowjones.com

A Wheat Warning from China

FEBRUARY 23, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By ANDREW PEAPLE

Global food prices hardly need another reason to rise. But talk that China may have to increase wheat imports again this year due to poor harvests has added to market jitters, with wheat prices this month around 2½-year highs. Like so many other commodity markets, those for grains may have to get used to a hungry dragon.

Some perspective is needed. China's wheat imports rose to 1.4 million tons in the year ending June 2010, according to the International Grain Council, up 260% from a year earlier. Corn imports could jump fourfold this year, it forecasts. Dramatic that may seem, but China still only accounts for 1% to 2% of total world imports of both commodities. By contrast, its imports account for 60% of global trade in soy beans.

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Zuma Press

Farmers spray water on the dried-up wheat farmland at Gurao town in Huaibei in central China's Anhui province.

China's wheat imports are volatile; as recently as 2004-2005, they were as high as 6.8 million tons a year. The true effects of recent poor weather won't be known fully until later this spring. Changing diets could reduce pressures: the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization says Chinese wheat consumption per capita has fallen in the last decade.

Meanwhile, Robert Ash, an economics professor at London's School of Oriental and African Studies, points out that China's need to produce 580 million tons of grain by 2020 to attain its goal of remaining 95% grain self-sufficient isn't outlandish. It produced 546 million tons last year. But he also points out headwinds. Water scarcity and land shortages are growing problems in China, while crop yields have stagnated.

That leaves the impact on wheat uncertain. Tensions could become apparent in corn markets first, given that commodity's use as animal feed. And if China does need to increase corn imports, much may need to come from the U.S, the world's leading producer.

A chance for closer Sino-U.S. ties and to shrink America's trade deficit? Maybe, but demands on U.S. corn are already high, with the growing use of biofuels. Instead, rising Chinese demand could turn into yet another source of tension.

Write to Andrew Peaple at andrew.peaple@dowjones.com

H-P's Apotheker Must Formulate Hurd Antidote

FEBRUARY 24, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By ROLFE WINKLER

Mark Hurd couldn't have timed his exit from Hewlett-Packard any better had he planned it.

Hailed as the rescuer of H-P's once-moribund stock, the course charted by Mr. Hurd appears, in the fullness of time, to have led H-P back into the digital doldrums. His successor, Leo Apotheker, is the one forced to find a way out.

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Leo Apotheker

Analyst Robert Cihra of Caris & Co. notes that, under Mr. Hurd, growth in PCs drove H-P's top line, while cost cuts drove its bottom line. But the company's latest quarterly results and outlook released Tuesday is a reminder that PC growth is slowing and there are few costs left to cut.

The PC business, still 32% of revenue, looks vulnerable. For starters, there is H-P's problematic mix of customers. Unlike rival Dell, H-P leans more heavily on consumers, where sales declined 12% in the latest quarter. Business sales still are expanding modestly. Add to that the long-term challenge posed by tablets, which already are gobbling up sales of low-end laptops.

And H-P's impressive 6.4% operating-profit margin in PCs may be peaking as well. Favorable component costs look temporary, while Asian rival Lenovo Group is pushing harder into the U.S. To gain share, Lenovo appears willing to sell PCs near cost.

Meanwhile, disappointing sales in H-P's services segment, 27% of overall revenue, suggests Mr. Hurd's cost cuts are coming home to roost. Such cuts weakened the company's competitive position, say Goldman Sachs analysts, an argument supported by H-P's decision now to reinvest in services to win new business.

There is a bright spot. Sales of servers, storage and networking gear rose a smart 22%. And operating-profit margin of about 15% is better than the company average. At 17% of company revenue, however, it will be tough for this segment's growth to counterbalance weakness in PCs and services.

Investors still are waiting to hear Mr. Apotheker's strategic vision for the company, which he plans to outline at an investor meeting on March 14. With high-margin software still just 2% of revenue, compared with International Business Machine's more than 20%, some think H-P might make a big software acquisition.

But unlike other tech titans, H-P, with $10.5 billion of net debt, doesn't have the balance sheet to easily pull off a big deal. A big deal paid for with debt risks the company's credit rating, potentially problematic for the financing business; paying for it with H-P's relatively cheap stock risks diluting shareholders substantially.

That's just as well. As IBM has demonstrated repeatedly, the secret to successful tech deals is to focus on buying modestly sized businesses, rich in intellectual property, whose products can benefit from being plugged into a global sales force.

Even with the shares trading at about 10 times forward earnings, H-P faces some serious investment ahead to revitalize the business. Investors should bide their time.

Write to Rolfe Winkler at rolfe.winkler@wsj.com

AMOLED面板 友達兩路搶進

2011.02.24    【聯合晚報╱記者楊曉芳/台北報導】



面板大廠友達(2409)順利打入全球智慧手機王Nokia供應鏈，昨公告決定將擴增新加坡4.5代LTPS廠增資2500萬美元，約新台幣7.5億元，積極投入AMOLED面板擴增，預計該廠今年第二季可產出AMOLED面板，此外新竹3.5代線也將在短期轉入AMOLED面板生產。
友達積極在海外設面板廠，據消息指出，是因為友達已確定打入去年全球智慧手機王NOKIA其供應鏈，將提供AMOLED給NOKIA一解SamSung獨厚自家品牌造成AMOLED缺貨狀況。友達昨股價創下近2年來新低25.75元之後，今早股價開高走高，盤中突破5、10日均線。友達發言系統今早亦指出，從不公開客戶資訊不便回應接單狀況。
智慧手機已成為中高階手機市場主力產品，全球手機品牌廠無不在智慧手機上力奪市占率，根據IDC最新統計，2010年，全球智慧手機市占率最為NOKIA，市占率高達33.1%，且去年NOKIA全球智慧手機的出貨量已達1億支，第二名為RIM，其市占率為16.1%，第三名為美國Apple，其市占率為15.7%，第四名為Samsung，市占率為7.6％，第五名為HTC(宏達電)其市占率為7.1%。
Nokia雖去年蟬連智慧手機王，但市占率已從2009年的39%下滑到33.1%，而成長最快的是Samsung出貨年成長率高達318.2%，其次是HTC有165.4%以及Apple的89.2%，面臨後進者的積極追趕，Nokia將挺進搭配觸控面板還可以可見高畫質面板AMOLED面板，惟AMOLED面板供應商去年僅Samsung，現在友達技術通過Nokia認可，且展開AMOLED面板擴廠，成效如何，也將成Nokia今年力拚智慧手機王關鍵。

中美晶：太陽能需求 今年增30%

2011.02.24   【經濟日報╱記者何易霖／台北報導】


中美晶董事長盧明光昨（23）日表示，今年太陽能市場需求沒問題，年成長達二至三成，矽晶圓恐出現缺貨，對中美晶非常有利，將加快擴產，6月底總產能可達11億至12億瓦（1.1至1.2GW）。有機會成為全球前十廠。
盧明光昨天應台北經營管理研究院之邀，發表企業經營經驗演講。他接受媒體採訪時表示，今年以來國內太陽能廠產能幾乎滿載，近期價格開始回升，客戶下單還是相當踴躍，業績也會開始向上。
中美晶擴產後，與綠能同為台灣「唯二」年產能超過10億瓦的太陽能矽晶圓廠，有助放大經濟規模，躋身國際一線大廠，強化台灣在全球太陽能產業重要性。
他說，這波價格反彈又快又急，主要來自德國與義大利買氣強勁增溫。先前德國下砍補貼，一度造成市場憂心裝設太陽能發電的投資報酬率下滑，但終端系統廠主動大幅砍價，反而帶動消費者買氣，是市場快速增溫的主因。
盧明光指出，他原本擔心，今年太陽能市場可能「零成長」，甚至「負成長」，如今看來是多慮了。今年應該非常好，全球太陽能市場可達200億至220億瓦，年增率二至三成。
他認為，在市場強力拉貨，太陽能電池廠產能大幅開出下，對矽晶圓材料需求非常大，尤其原本矽晶圓廠擴產腳步就比電池廠慢，「矽晶圓供給缺口恐怕會擴大」，這對中美晶非常有利。
中美晶原擔心市場降溫，暫緩擴產，如今要加快擴產腳步，4月起陸續新增300MW（百萬瓦）產能，最快6月底前將設備產能擴充至11億瓦，並藉由製程薄化，在不增加成本下增加約5%至7%產出，實際有效產能上看12億瓦。
中美晶規劃，今年薄化產品比重由去年15%以內，放大至五成以上；出貨也以高效能矽晶圓為主，比重會超過一半，藉此可有較好的賣價，提升營運表現。
中美晶昨天下滑9.5元，收盤價132.5元。

宸鴻 打破iPad2延出貨疑雲

各界關注美商蘋果iPad2延遲交貨一事，TPK宸鴻(3673)財務長劉詩亮昨（23）日表示，過去1個月沒有客戶延遲交貨情況發生，出貨狀況一切正常，打破外界傳言iPad2將延後出貨的疑雲。

    　法人預估TPK宸鴻3月營收月增率將挑戰5成以上，月營收跳升至新台幣90億元水準。

    　TPK宸鴻昨日法說會現場塞爆坐滿法人，甚至連椅子都不夠，顯示該公司的熱門程度。

    　由於蘋果去年占TPK宸鴻的營收比重達75％，加上近期傳出蘋果iPad2延後上市、蘋果出貨動向更是備受關注。針對市場傳言iPad2將延遲出貨一事，劉詩亮表示，不能針對單一客戶評論，只能說宸鴻過去1個月的出貨都很正常，沒有延遲出貨的問題。

    　康和證券分析師郭明錤則表示，目前供應鏈多數沒有接到蘋果要求更改交期的通知，而第1季的蘋果iPad 2供應鏈準備量維持450-500萬台，高於去年第一代上市前的300-400萬台，從生產鏈的準備量觀察，離iPad 2上市發售日不會太遠。

    　為了大擴產能，TPK宸鴻預計今年要再投入200億元資本支出，較2010年的94億元倍數成長，主要為增加觸控感測器（touch Sensor）和保護玻璃（cover glass）的產能。

    　劉詩亮強調，今年TPK宸鴻著重在垂直整合的能力，希望能掌握上下游的製程，增加利潤表現；目前在保護玻璃方面已新設廈門翔達新廠，面積41萬平方米，於今年1月動工，預計最快將於第2季投產。

    　TPK宸鴻目前也正在興建4.5代線觸控感應器及後段模組的新廠，3.5吋觸控面板產能將從2010年底單月800萬片提升到2011年第2季的1,400萬片，10吋觸控面板去年底產能為單月200萬片，至第2季將擴增到單月600萬片，產能直接增加2倍，顯示出TPK宸鴻大吃平板電腦的野心。

    　TPK宸鴻總經理孫大明表示，今年將有70款平板電腦問世，在參與產業成長的幅度觀察，觸控面板應用在大尺寸的機會將會越來越多，現在看起來平板電腦沒有供過於求的問題。

• 2011-02-24
 
• 工商時報
 
• 【記者謝艾莉／台北報導】

全球鋰電池產業上中下游主要生產廠商一覽

2011/02/22   【經濟日報╱記者李立達、張義宮／台北報導】

‧輸入個股名或股號，查詢個股走勢： 

興櫃電池廠鋰科（3301 ）進軍大陸電動車有成，與大陸江淮、上饒汽車簽訂電動車電池供應備忘錄，預計今年營收將倍數成長。鋰科資本額10.5億元，股東有聯電（2303）、日本電池芯大廠三洋，外傳鴻海（2317）亦為股東；鋰科從事正極材料研發，觸角已從上游電池材料，延伸至中下游的電池芯及電池模組。

國內電池業者分屬上、下游模兩極端。下游組裝廠，包括新普（6121）、順達科（3211），至於上游包括能元（3127 ）、長園科（8038）等，鋰科為少數上中下游兼備的電池廠。鋰科昨日表示，五年內將投入10億美元建廠電動車用鋰電池，第一期在煙台建廠，第四季投產，目標成為全球電動車的電池供應大廠，去年營收13.1億元，今年營收將倍增至27億元，預計下半年送件，明年可望掛牌。

鋰科去年仍處虧損，法人評估，今年有機會在3C電池擴大產能後，轉虧為盈，元月營收1.33億元，較去年同期成長22.09%。鋰科昨興櫃收盤價21.3元。

鋰科昨日宣布與中研院及國立暨南大學簽約，三方合作研究動力鋰電池正極材料，預計今年將申請專利，從歐美掌握材料專利情況下，另闢蹊徑；鋰科在大陸合作伙伴-江西博能集團，昨日亦為座上賓。

江西博能集團為大陸500強企業，旗下擁有上饒汽車，主要營業項目包括大型客車製造及房地產開發；博能集團總裁辦公室主任彭震指出，鋰科將是博能電動公車的電池主要供應商之一。

據瞭解，鋰科也與重慶、安徽等的知名汽車廠簽定供應鏈協定，將從開發、設計導入，初期以巴士的電池供應為主。