2010年12月30日 星期四

平價智慧手機加速委外,台ODM廠真受惠?

2010/12/31 09:30 時報資訊

【時報記者何美如台北報導】智慧型手機今年成長幅度高於市場預期,研究機構多預估,明年全球銷售量將逾4億支,滲透率攀至27.59%,市場也期待,平價化趨勢有助品牌廠釋出代工訂單,明年ODM廠業績表現值得期待。不過,智慧型手機ODM訂單真是代工廠的獲利萬靈丹?從已投入智慧型手機ODM的華寶 (8078) 、華冠 (8101) 、英華達 (3367) 、英業達 (2356) 等來看,在龐大研發費用投入下,似乎沒嚐到甜頭,華寶今年更呈現虧損。

智慧型手機今年成長幅度高於市場預期,今年主流機種仍在中高階手機,研究機構多預估,在平價化及新興市場需求帶動,明年全球手機出貨量約14.5萬支,智慧型手機將成長到4億支之上,年成長率達42.8%,滲透率達27.59%。看好2011年低價智慧型手機出貨量,將從2010年的300萬支,快速攀升至4,000萬支,2011年可說是智慧型手機低價普及化的元年。國際大廠為保有自身毛利與分擔研發資源考量,可望大規模釋單,台灣代工業者將受惠。

不過,智慧型手機真是代工業者的萬靈丹?今年的主流仍在中高階機種,前五大品牌業者仍享有高毛利率,如HTC毛利率還在三成之上,釋出代工訂單沒有迫切性,預期在殺價競爭,毛利率跌破15%後,才有機會釋出較大規模的ODM訂單。目前釋出智慧型手機的品牌廠多屬二線廠,在市場佔有率不高,出貨未達規模量。

智慧型手機需投入大量的研發,成本支出很高,一線品牌大廠一個機種的研發費用可能就超過新台幣十億元。但代工廠在殺價競爭下,代工收入從2005年的50美元/支,掉到07年的25美元/支,目前剩約7-8美元,扣除工廠成本,毛利可能剩5美元/支,在扣除管銷、研發、NRE(一次性開發費用)等龐大支出下,代工廠根本沒辦法賺錢。

從已投入智慧型手機ODM的華寶、華冠、英華達近二年表現來看,智慧型手機似乎無法貢獻獲利,出貨量超過五成的華寶今年前三季更每季都虧損。未來ODM廠與品牌廠的合作可能朝功能型手機的合作模式發展,由品牌廠投入研發,ODM廠投入少許的研發資源在硬體、機構、驅動程式等,甚至與軟體公司合作,出貨才付NRE來降低支出,這或許才是ODM廠的生機。

2010年12月29日 星期三

接單旺!精元重慶廠排到明年Q1

2010/12/22 12:36 時報資訊


【時報記者任珮云台北報導】全球最大規模的筆記本電腦鍵盤及滑鼠生產商精元 (2387) 電腦在璧山的工廠已經投產,開始為重慶供貨。精元鍵盤產能在全球電腦鍵盤市場占了約40%的,占了全球筆記本電腦鍵盤市場的60%。精元重慶工廠10月底就開始試生產,現在已開通4條生產線,目前訂單主要來自富士康。同時,精元電腦已與英業達 (2356) 簽訂協議,從11月開始供貨。據悉,精元電腦在重慶拿到的訂單生產計畫,已排到明年第一季。

精元原本就有東莞、江西、吳江、常熟、台中等6座廠區,建廠、投產的速度相當快。第四季和明年第一季,各品牌大廠開始拉大出貨量,其中Apple與Samsung新機出貨使精元成為受惠廠商。精元在觸控領域的佈局主要是透過持股20.77%的友碁科技在進行,是由精元的深圳廠負責代工。桌上型用筆觸控的螢幕和Window 7多點手觸碰的觸控螢幕,陸續列在精元的合併營收中。

精元 (2387) 11月合併營收11億元,月減7.9%,法人估計,單月稅前盈餘約1.48億元,月增約13%,每股盈餘0.4元,累計前11月稅前盈餘15.7億元,年增率36%,每股盈餘4.16元。受到整體NB產業旺季不旺影響,法人估精元第四季出貨量將略低於上季,精元第三季出貨量逾1760萬片,估計整體全年NB鍵盤出貨量可超過7000萬片,較去年同期成長近兩成,再寫新高紀錄。

Is This the Peak for Netflix?

DECEMBER 24, 2010 WALL STREET JOURNAL



I wonder if there will be a flurry of last-minute gift subscriptions to Netflix this Christmas.

After all, it's a gift you can buy online, so you can get it as late as Christmas morning for that surprise guest. It doesn't cost much: Prices start at $7.99 a month. And Netflix, which delivers TV programs and movies to your home by DVD and over the Internet, can save the recipient money: It lets them cut back on cable—or dump it altogether.


These are boom times for Netflix. It's been one of the big winners from the recession. Last quarter's revenues were 31% higher than a year earlier. Earnings were up 35% and had doubled since the summer of 2008.

In the last year alone, the stock has rocketed from $57 to $184. By my rough calculations, based upon filings from earlier this year, chairman and chief executive Reed Hastings may be sitting on stock-option gains approaching $300 million.

So if the Netflix subscription service is a good deal, is that the same for the stock?

I'm sorry to sound like a Grinch, but that's another story.

There are three things that should make you nervous about any stock.

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These are boom times for Netflix. But is the share price set for a fall?

First: It becomes extremely expensive in relation to earnings.

Second: The CEO gets named "businessman of the year."

Third: The CEO starts arguing in public with hedge-fund managers who are betting against his stock.

In the case of Netflix, I'm afraid, we have all three.

It was bad enough that Reed Hastings was named "Businessperson of the Year" by Fortune. It's uncanny how often this sort of thing precedes a very nasty fall.

Then Mr. Hastings got into a public debate with Whitney Tilson, a hedge-fund manager who is "short," or betting against, Netflix stock.

Video Archive: Netflix

Netflix: No Longer Little Streaming Service
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Mr. Tilson laid out a strong bear case on Netflix. A few days later Mr. Hastings hit back.

This is never a good sign. I remember watching Overstock.com Chief Executive Patrick Byrne rage against short-sellers while his stock tanked. The only correct way for a chief executive to handle the bears is to make them lose money by keeping the share price rising.

Perhaps none of this would be quite so ominous if Netflix stock weren't so expensive. The stock is trading at a lofty 70 times recent earnings, and 48 times those forecast for the next 12 months. It trades at nearly five times annual sales. These are extremely high multiples.

At these levels, it gets tough for an investor to make a good return. Companies have to run faster and faster just to meet expectations.

The history of the stock market is not kind to investors who pay too much for growth stocks. Over the long haul, study after study has shown that they tend on average to fare poorly. For each winning stock, there are many costly losers. Indeed, some analyses—such as work done by James Montier, now a strategist at fund shop GMO—argue that investors have typically done better investing in the beaten-down stocks that everyone hates than they have in the glamorous ones everyone loves.

That's because unloved stocks tend to be so cheap, and expectations so low, that positive surprises can come quite easily. With go-go glamour stocks, the reverse is true. Even a single disappointment can get punished severely.

I'm a great admirer of successful, entrepreneurial companies—especially those, like Netflix, that seem to have their act together, have reinvented an industry, and have knocked the stuffing out of complacent old behemoths like Blockbuster.

Netflix has built a great franchise. But right now the stock market may be viewing this company's future upside-down.

Yes, the big news is that the business is moving from delivering DVDs by mail, its established model, to streaming movies over the Internet.

Wall Street sees new vistas of growth. I see much more competition. I also see a game where Netflix's key strengths suddenly won't count for very much.

Consider the competition. Everyone and his aunt is getting into the streaming game. It's not just the cable companies.

An Apple TV lets you rent individual movies for $3 to $4 at a time, and TV programs for a dollar. You can rent movies online from Amazon.com. You can buy set-top boxes—from the likes of Roku and Boxee—that let you stream media from different sources. You can watch programs from the Web on Google TV.

These are early days for this industry. It's really just getting going.

And where will Netflix have an advantage? Will they get better deals from movie studios and TV companies than Apple, Google, Hulu or Amazon? If so, why? If I want to download, say, "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows"—or "Casablanca"—why should I go to Netflix.com rather than anywhere else?

If the free market works as advertised, this should end up as a low-margin business. Indeed, it may end up as a negative-margin business: If history is any guide, some companies will be willing to sell at a loss to gain market share, and there will be investors willing to finance them, at least for a while. Bring on the deals! Do I really want to pay 45 times forecast earnings to be in this business right here?

Now consider how this new world of online video streaming will neutralize two of Netflix's core strengths.

The first: fulfillment. Netflix doesn't owe its success to an amazing website. It owes it to the remarkably efficient way it handles lots of DVDs. It sends out orders and processes returns quickly. It doesn't make a lot of mistakes or lose many discs. This is tougher than it seems. Most companies can't do it. Netflix, like Amazon, can. It's why Netflix is the champ at mail-order DVD rental.

But this skill is irrelevant to streaming movies. It gives you no edge at all.

The second big change? Under its current business model, Netflix is able to rent the same DVD over and over to different customers. That's extremely lucrative.

But with streaming, all that changes as well. You have to strike deals with studios and TV companies. They can charge you for each use. You lose control, and your edge.

None of this means it's lights out for Netflix. Never underestimate a well-run entrepreneurial company. Maybe it will defy the odds. Maybe the stock will keep rising. But the game is different, and getting harder.

So what should you do if you own Netflix shares? Knowing when to sell a booming stock—if at all—is always tricky. There are no perfect answers, but one of the better ideas I've seen is simply to set up a stop-loss order. Set a price target, maybe 20% below the peak, and if the stock falls to that level, cash out. It won't get you out at the top. But it will keep you in a rising stock and can cash you out of a falling one before things get really bad.

Write to Brett Arends at brett.arends@wsj.com

2010年12月28日 星期二

Intel, AMD to Unveil Combination Chips

DECEMBER 27, 2010


By DON CLARK
Chip makers soon will deliver one of biggest advances in years in the technology that powers laptop and desktop computers. But how much consumers—and the chip companies—will benefit is in question.

Chip makers soon will deliver one of biggest advances in years in the technology that powers laptop and desktop computers. But how much it will benefit consumers is still to be determined. WSJ's Don Clark reports on Digits.

The design trend, expected to be the focus of announcements by Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. at the Consumer Electronics Show early next month, is based on bringing together two long-separate classes of products: microprocessors, the calculating engines that run most PC software; and graphics processing units, which render images in videogames and other programs.

Putting the two technologies on one piece of silicon reduces the distance electrical signals must travel and speeds up some computing chores. It also lowers the number of components computer makers need to buy, cutting production costs and helping to shrink the size of computers. Such integrated chips are expected to allow low-priced systems to carry out tasks that currently add hundreds of dollars to the price of a personal computer, such as the ability to play high-definition movies and videogames and to convert video and audio files to different formats quickly.

The approach "is going to change the way people build PCs and buy PCs," Paul Otellini, Intel's chief executive, predicted at an investor conference early this month.
But the benefits won't be measurable until after the CES show, when computer makers are expected to disclose their plans for using the technology. And some industry executives insist that many PC users will continue to seek even better performance by picking systems with separate graphics-processing-unit chips.

Intel, which supplies roughly four-fifths of the microprocessors used in PCs, is using the event to introduce a broad overhaul of its flagship Core product line using a design that is code-named Sandy Bridge. The products add GPU circuitry that Intel has offered in companion chipsets, as well as video-processing features and other undisclosed features aimed at improving the visual experience of using PCs—technologies Intel plans to market as part of a campaign called Visibly Smart.
Mr. Otellini said demand is "very, very strong" for the chips, which are expected to be used in hundreds of new designs for laptop and desktop PCs at various price points. Intel also is expected to offer a new version of a technology known as Wi-Di, which allows laptop users to wirelessly display images on high-definition TV sets.
The trend is at least as important for AMD, perennial underdog to Intel in the microprocessor market. AMD spent $5.4 billion in 2006 to buy ATI Technologies, one of two big makers of GPUs, and vowed then to combine that technology with its microprocessors by early 2009 in an initiative it calls Fusion.

That effort took longer than the company anticipated. AMD is using the CES trade show to introduce microprocessors with GPU circuitry that are targeted at laptops in the $200 to $500 range. But it doesn't expect to offer high-end Fusion chips that could directly compete with Intel's overhauled Core line until the middle of next year.
AMD expects the chips being introduced at the CES show to add much better capabilities for playing games and high-definition videos to a low-end portable category known as netbooks, a market Intel has dominated. "We are bringing just this incredible amount of visual and computing power to segments where it hasn't been seen before," said Rick Bergman, an AMD senior vice president who is general manager of its products group.

The third player affected by the trend is Nvidia Corp. The Silicon Valley company competes fiercely with AMD in sales of GPUs, but agrees with its rival on one point: The graphics circuitry added in Sandy Bridge—though an improvement over Intel's past efforts—still isn't adequate for many applications.

Both companies cite that the new Intel chips don't support a Microsoft Corp. programming technology called DirectX 11, needed for some popular videogames, while their products do. An Intel spokesman responded, saying that many widely used games will work fine using Sandy Bridge, which the company predicts will make GPUs unnecessary in low-end PCs.
Nvidia says many PC makers don't seem to agree with Intel's assertion, with more than 200 forthcoming models based on Sandy Bridge also including its GPUs.
"We have more design wins in Sandy Bridge than any other platform," said Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang.

Mr. Huang says the new Intel chips with built-in graphics, instead of hurting Nvidia, will help the company by driving demand for PCs—largely because of other technology improvements. "I think this is the best microprocessor that's been built for quite a long time," he said.

Intel hasn't disclosed performance estimates for the new chips, which are expected to start with high-end models that have the equivalent of four calculating engines.
One person who has tested the technology is Kelt Reeves, president of the gaming-PC maker Falcon Northwest. While the graphics performance won't satisfy gamers, in Mr. Reeves's opinion, the four processors on Sandy Bridge chips top the performance of six processors on existing Intel products. The chips are "ridiculously good," he said.

Lenovo Hones Sales Pitch for Russia, India

DECEMBER 28, 2010 THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By LORETTA CHAO
BEIJING—Lenovo Group Ltd. is notching gains in emerging markets, picking up market share in such places as Russia and India, where the Chinese company can use experience gained at home to woo lower-income customers.
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Lenovo Group is notching gains in emerging markets.

The world's fourth-largest personal-computer company by volume is tailoring its approach in emerging markets to first-time buyers, who account for a larger chunk of sales in such areas than they do in more-developed markets, Chen Shaopeng, senior vice president of Lenovo's emerging-markets business, said in an interview.
To attract such buyers, Lenovo has employed tactics that have made it China's PC market leader: offering colorful models and products that can cost less than $300, as well as using retail franchisees who have insight on their individual markets. Lenovo also has increased advertising, using one of the world's biggest billboards, a 1,300-foot-long spot near the Kremlin.

Lenovo increased its share of Russia's market to 8.3% of PCs shipped in the third quarter from just 1.4% in the same period in 2008, according to research firm IDC. Lenovo is now the fifth-biggest PC vendor in Russia, up from No. 14.
In India, where the company aims to add 1,000 franchised retail stores to the 350 it has already, Lenovo has grown to 9% of the market from less than 7% at the end of 2008. The company ranks fourth in India, after Dell Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co., and Acer Inc. by volume.

Lenovo has been trying to steer away from relying on advanced markets like the U.S. to fuel overseas growth. The company struggled with weak consumer sales and declining market share after its purchase of International Business Machines Corp.'s PC business in 2005.

Co-founder Liu Chuanzhi returned as chairman, and then-Chairman Yang Yuanqing was named chief executive. The new leadership vowed a renewed focus on China and other developing markets.

Russia and India are only the eighth- and ninth-biggest PC markets in the world, respectively, with the U.S. and China the two biggest. And emerging markets outside China accounted for only 18% of Lenovo's revenue in the quarter through September, with 36% coming from mature markets and 46%, from China.

But Mr. Chen said emerging markets are Lenovo's fastest-growing regions, and helped Lenovo achieve a company-high global market share of 10.3% in the quarter, according to IDC. "In the long term, we expect the percentage mix [of revenue] contributed by emerging markets outside of China to increase as these markets grow," Mr. Chen said.
David Wolf, chief executive of Wolf Group Asia, a Beijing-based marketing strategy firm, said that while Lenovo's international push is yielding progress, the company still has to show it has a solid long-term strategy.

"After many years of having the hell kicked out of them, it's nice to have some positive results," he said. "But it's still very early days. Whether they can scale on whatever modest results they've been getting is a significant question."
Lenovo is struggling to show that it can branch into innovative new product segments that are increasingly important for PC companies. Lenovo introduced its LePhone smartphone this year based on Google Inc.'s Android operating system, but so far the phone is for sale only in China.
The company created a separate videogame-console company but hasn't released a product yet. Lenovo also has been working on a tablet PC, the LePad, but the status of that effort isn't clear. The company also delayed the release of the IdeaPad U1, a hybrid laptop with a screen that can be detached and used as a tablet, which created buzz when Lenovo unveiled a prototype at the January Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Lenovo's "strategic vision and execution in new-product development remain weak," said Charles Guo, a J.P. Morgan analyst in Hong Kong. He said the company needs to be more aggressive to capture an opportunity left by management troubles at H-P, whose CEO was ousted in August.
Mr. Chen said concepts like the IdeaPad U1 establish that Lenovo is "a leader in innovation." The company declined to say when the product might be released, however.
After taking the reins of Lenovo's emerging-markets business last year, Mr. Chen said he traveled to such places as Russia and India, where IBM's ThinkPads were well known but Lenovo's brand wasn't, and saw similarities with China.
Lenovo's strategy in emerging markets is what it calls "best fit" computers rather than "best" computers. Much of that has to do with price. Mr. Chen said the company modified a desktop model for India to lower costs, though he declined to elaborate. The machine sells for about $280, including taxes.

The strategy also means knowing which basic features are most attractive to new buyers. Lenovo's Z-series laptops, which come in a variety of colors, are popular in India because "a lot of young users, even at the entry level, want something stylish," Mr. Chen said. In Russia, Lenovo became one of the first PC vendors to offer a laptop with built-in WiMax wireless capability.

Lenovo's rollout in India of franchised stores carrying its products exclusively is similar to its practice at the company's network of 20,000 stores in China. The locations are outfitted by Lenovo but owned and operated by local business owners who can tailor their services and offerings to local buyers.

Vipul Jain, director at Unique Infoways Ltd., which owns three Lenovo stores in New Delhi, said his company invested $40,000 to open its first such outlet in Nehru Place, a hub consisting of hundreds of electronics shops. Lenovo provided training for the store's staff and pays a commission to Unique Infoways, which expects to open another ten stores with Lenovo around the nation over the next year.

While PC users in mature markets feel comfortable buying computers online, first-time buyers in emerging markets want to see and touch the machines, Mr. Chen said, "so our strategy was is to build the retail coverage."

2010年12月24日 星期五

After Three Lean Years, Bankers Hope 2011 Is the Real Deal

DECEMBER 24, 2010 By RENÉE SCHULTES WALL STREET JOURNAL

For the first time since the start of the crisis, mergers-and-acquisitions bankers can look forward to the New Year with a degree of optimism.

[MAHERD]

Again, 2010 was a modest year for deal making, with global announced volumes up 18% to $2.76 trillion, according to data provider Dealogic. That is well below 2007's $4.6 trillion peak, but a flurry of bids since the summer suggests corporate chiefs are rediscovering their animal spirits.

True, the M&A recovery in 2010 promised more than it actually has delivered. Some of the biggest bids, such asBHP Billiton's $40 billion hostile bid for Canada's Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, were abandoned. Others, including Sanofi-Aventis's long-running pursuit of U.S. biotech company Genzyme, still are talking, while some, like Vimpel Communications' $21 billion bid for Italy's Weather Investments, have yet to close. One feature of 2010 deal making was the increased regulatory and political risks facing cross-border transactions.

But the conditions for an M&A recovery are in place. Almost one-third of the European market trades below 1.1 times replacement value, according to Credit Suisse estimates, implying it is as cheap for companies to buy companies as to build their own new capacity. And corporate cash piles, which earn virtually nothing in the bank, are rising. Almost 30% of U.S. companies have net cash. What's more, U.S. corporate free-cash-flow yields are more or less in line with investment-grade corporate-bond yields compared with a 20-year average of 5.5% below, according to Credit Suisse. That suggests deals will just about fund themselves.

Buyers also are returning. Private-equity firms announced $184 billion in buyouts this year, up 74% from 2009's lows, notes Dealogic. Buyout firms have roughly $450 billion in uncommitted funds. The bond market also is supportive: High-yield bonds now yield just six percentage points over government debt compared with 20 percentage points at the height of the crisis. Emerging-market bidders also are active. Emerging-market M&A surpassed Europe for the first time in 2010, and is likely to do so again in 2011.

The snag is confidence. Sure, signs are encouraging. Unsolicited bids accounted for 8% of global M&A this year, a 10-year high, notes Ernst & Young. Price discovery also is improving, as evidenced by $275 billion raised in initial public offerings globally this year, the second highest on record after 2007. But investors still are skittish, nervous about the state of the global economy, particularly given the euro-zone sovereign-debt crisis. That points to more midmarket acquisitions than a rash of big strategic deals.

After the last three years, most bankers would happily settle for that.

2010年12月23日 星期四

大聯大 拚全球半導體通路二哥

2010.12.24 【經濟日報╱記者簡永祥/台北報導】

大聯大合併友尚站穩亞太半導體通路龍頭,併購觸角決定明年再向外延伸,第一站將鎖定布局中國的通路業者,以挑戰全球第二大通路商Arrow的地位,壯大在全球半導體零組件的影響力。

昨天盤中盛傳,大聯大將以每股25.6元買下增你強,增你強昨天盤中價格約21.4元左右,等於溢價二成,帶動增你強盤中急拉衝到22.35元,漲幅近5%,收盤價21.85元。不少法人頻頻向兩家公司求證,但包括大聯大及增你強昨天都直接否認,增你強甚至發布重大訊息澄清純屬臆測。

大聯大主管昨(23)日,明年還是會持續展開併購行動,很多併購事宜都在談,但基於商業戰略考慮,目前不宜透露太多細節。但對於近期市場點名增你強及志遠等IC通路商,大聯大強調,這二家公司與大聯大未來發展方向,並不具互補效應,否認市場的傳言。

消息人士透露,大聯大合併友尚後,估計今年營收規模已逼近Arrow,大聯大為擴大在全球影響力,同時防止全球最大半導體通路龍頭—Avnet在亞洲的擴大布局,明年將持購展開併購,初步併購方向,鎖定在大陸布局的通路商。

業者表示,大聯大兩大競爭對手Avnet及Arrow,過去經營重心偏重歐美市場,但在Arrow合併台廠奇普仕,以擴展版圖,Avnet 亦布重兵在大陸市場,並合併楊氏電子,全球前兩大半導體通路商,均以購併快速進入亞洲市場,讓大聯大受到極大的威脅,才以火快速度及優渥的換股比率,在今年初宣布與友尚合併。

大聯大與友尚於11月15日正式合併後,新大聯大前11月營收站上2,000億元。法人預估,明年下半年單季營收有機會站上1,000億元。


2010年12月20日 星期一

Uniqlo Makes Global Push

DECEMBER 18, 2010 By MARIKO SANCHANTA WALL STREET JOURNAL

TOKYO—Looking to become the world's leading clothing retailer, Japan's Fast Retailing Co. plans to introduce its Uniqlo stores in the fast-growing Indian and Brazilian markets and to vastly expand its presence in China, where the number of stores are intended to leapfrog those in Japan by 2020.

So-called fast-fashion retailers such as Spain's Inditex SA, which is the world's largest clothing retailer and operates the Zara chain, and Sweden's Hennes & Mauritz AB are quickly expanding their respective empires around the globe as consumers move away from higher-priced clothing in favor of less-expensive options. Fast Retailing, Asia's leading clothing retailer by sales, said it aims to move ahead of Zara and H&M within a decade, as it ramps up store openings—particularly in Asia.

Bloomberg News

Fast Retailing CEO, President and Chairman Tadashi Yanai.

Fast Retailing's fashion focus, however, is different from its competitors: It sells casual, affordable basics, such as fleece jackets, jeans and its Heat Tech line of thermal underwear. "We don't make clothes that you throw away after one season," said Naoki Otoma, Fast Retailing's chief operating officer.

In its home market, where Fast Retailing derives the bulk of its revenue, the company has caused a buzz by breaking with many of the conventions of Japanese businesses. Fast has said English must be spoken at all business meetings where foreigners are present, that all email correspondence must be written in English by 2012 and that the number of its foreign employees will overtake Japanese workers by 2015.

The retailer is quickly becoming a template for the rest of corporate Japan, faced with the twin obstacles of shrinking domestic demand and a dearth of Japanese leaders with the know-how and language skills needed to lead a push into global markets.

"Our advantage is that we are a Japanese brand, which is known for good quality and design, and we are closer in proximity to the Asian countries," Mr. Otoma said in an interview. "In China, we will grow organically without alliances or collaborations. There are no Chinese companies that can do a better job there than us.…We won't be striving to increase our store count in Japan by that much going forward."

Uniqlo is forecast to have 844 stores in Japan and 76 in China by the end of August. By 2020, Uniqlo aims to have 1,000 stores in China through organic growth alone. Zara had 60 stores in China as of Oct. 31.

[JUNIQLO]

Mr. Otoma, 50 years old, said Uniqlo also aims to crack the Indian and Brazilian markets within five years. Although a foreign retailer currently can enter India only as a minority stakeholder with a local partner, this restriction is likely to change soon. "Based on our research, these regulations will likely be dissolved within one year," Mr. Otoma said.

In the crucial U.S. market, Uniqlo is rebuilding its brand following some earlier missteps. It has retreated from suburban shopping malls and now has only one store, in Manhattan's SoHo neighborhood. The company aims to open an online shopping site soon to reach more American consumers and plans to open a flagship store on New York's Fifth Avenue next year.

The company has made no secret of the fact that it is scouring the market for acquisitions in the U.S., following a botched bid for Barneys New York in 2007.

"We have received many proposals," Mr. Otoma said. "There are not that many good options in the market right now. And for the companies that are doing well, the amount of money required to acquire them is tremendous. We have to advance with e-commerce quickly. Our priority has been branding and raising our brand awareness in the U.S."

Although Fast has been vocal about its plans for global domination, the past year has been choppy after a period of buoyant profitability.

November same-store sales in Japan tumbled 15% from a year earlier, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. The number of customers fell 7% and sales per customer dropped 8.1%.

Fast in October forecast that full-year net profit for the year through August would fall for the first time in four years, by 17% to 51 billion yen ($608.1 million). The company projected that net sales will rise by 5% to 856 billion yen, however. The company's stock is off 27% so far this year.

Tadashi Yanai, Fast Retailing's founder and chief executive, has blamed the poor performance on shortages in basic core items, poor marketing of the spring and summer lines and oversights in product and production planning.

"I think that our strong performance in the first half of the year led us to be careless in the second half," he said in a presentation earlier this year.

Analysts said that with more than 800 stores in Japan, the market is saturated and consumers are reining in their spending. "Overall purchase sizes [in Japan] have been going down, but Japanese consumers have been increasing the frequency of their visits to stores in some categories. People want to spend less on each visit," said Brian Salsberg, head of McKinsey & Co.'s retail-and-consumer group in Japan.

Mr. Otoma said the company still has a lot to learn, particularly from its foreign rivals. "We can learn from H&M and Zara by looking at the speed with which they launch new stores. They are very courageous to open new stores, whether they succeed or not. We, in contrast, are very cautious with what we do," he said.

When asked whether he has ambitions to lead Fast Retailing one day—a subject of speculation, as Mr. Yanai is 61 and has no obvious successors—Mr. Otoma laughed and shook his head. "I don't want to be the CEO. I want to have a good, balanced life."

Write to Mariko Sanchanta at mariko.sanchanta@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications
Fast Retailing's same-store sales in Japan were down 15% in November. In earlier versions of this article, it was incorrectly reported that the company's same-store sales were down 155% in November.

2010年12月17日 星期五

宸鴻併展觸 廈門擴產

2010.12.18 【經濟日報╱記者李珣瑛/新竹報導】

觸控股王TPK宸鴻跨足中、大尺寸觸控電容面板市場,投資3.78億元成立「宸通光電」,再以1.05比1換股方式合併「展觸光電」;同時新設Ray-Star Crystal科技,投資6,000萬美元(約新台幣1.8億元)在廈門購地生產保護玻璃,引爆與奇美電、勝華觸控面板大戰。

TPK宸鴻現為蘋果iPhone、iPad最重要觸控面板供應商,掛牌後動作頻頻,昨(17)日董事會一口氣通過11項議案,主要是成立宸通併入展觸、購入廈門翔安工業區土地,建立保護玻璃廠,並預留未來擴產空間,以及發行認股權憑證,和資金調度相關作業。

觸控面板市場明年市況持續發燒,TPK宸鴻、奇美電、勝華、達虹、介面及洋華等觸控面板廠,紛紛展開募資擴產,總計投入資本支超過450億元。法人認為,宸鴻此時擴大產品線布局,可使明年營運更旺,龍頭地位更穩固。

TPK宸鴻將先投資3.78億元成立百分之百持股的「宸通光電」,主要業務為電子零組件貿易商,再以1.05股宸通交換1股展觸進行合併,待雙方股東會通過後進行。

TPK宸鴻原本以生產小尺寸觸控面板為主,為因應觸控面板應用從手機到平板電腦,尺寸愈來愈大,透過宸通併入展觸,補強原本缺少的中、大尺寸的投射式電容式觸控面板戰力,有助後續承接更多訂單。

TPK宸鴻並將新增投資大陸6,000萬美元新設Ray-Star Crystal公司(簡稱RSC),生產觸控面板必需的保護玻璃外蓋,RSC將買下廈門翔安30萬平米(約9萬坪)土地建廠。

2010年12月16日 星期四

奇美電觸控分割首部曲啟動

2010/12/17 時報資訊

【時報-台北電】觸控風潮正夯、奇美電 (3481) 也將出現大動作。昨(16)日奇美電公告將透過第三地轉投資新公司大陸鴻奇光電(深圳)2,000萬美元,鎖定觸控面板及零組件生產及貼合。據悉這是奇美電將觸控業務逐步獨立的開始,未來不排除獨立成立公司甚至掛牌可能。

昨日晚間奇美電公告幾項大陸轉投資,其中一項就是鴻奇的佈局,雖然公司方面不願意正面證實前述的切割獨立動作,但是表示相關的布局目前都在討論中,未來對觸控的發展態度,只會愈來越積極。

在今年8月時,奇美電執行長段行建曾經指出,奇美電單月觸控面板的營收已達新台幣20~30億元,單月出貨也有數百萬片以上。據了解,現在奇美電觸控方面的營收規模已經直逼勝華(11月營收88億元,觸控比重約八成),加上蘋果二代iPad、手機面板等產品都已在認證中,未來在觸控方面規模將會相當驚人,因此開始規劃獨立佈局,希望可以創造最高的附加價值。

實際上,奇美電目前中小尺寸產品的情況相當不錯,估計今年中小尺寸面板的出貨規模,約在4.6億片以上,明年絕對超過5億片水準,以11月來說,中小尺寸合併出貨量共計4,570萬片,相較2010年10月份增加22.4%,由此可以看出奇美電在中小尺寸的實力堅強。

業內人士指出,自從今年3月合併成軍以來,新奇美就開始不斷的內部協調整合,以中小尺寸來說,當初群創、奇美、統寶都各自有生產基地,昨日奇美電也公告,將注資約328萬美元給東莞奇信(原奇美電的中小尺寸廠),不過這只是完成當時對當地政府投資承諾尾聲,未來奇美電中小尺寸生產重點,將會以原有統寶南京基地為主,其他生產基地產能將漸往南京集中。

在前段產能方面,根據奇美電規畫,既有的竹南4.5代廠已經快速轉型觸控面板,5代廠將轉入IPS技術(蘋果iPad所需的技術)的面板,而現有的南科模組廠,將改建成4代觸控面板廠、以搭配原有奇美電在南科的4代面板前段廠,且可能會裝置兩條。(新聞來源:工商時報─記者陳泳丞/台北報導)

McDonald's Joins the Line Looking to Expand in China

DECEMBER 16, 2010 By LAURIE BURKITT WALL STREET JOURNAL

BEIJING—McDonald's Corp. is planning its biggest expansion in China as the chain faces mounting challenges from competitors and higher food costs.

Bloomberg News

Pedestrians walk past a McDonald's restaurant in Beijing, China, on Wednesday, Dec. 15, 2010. McDonald's Corp., the world's largest restaurant chain, may add as many as 200 stores in China next year to compete with Yum! Brands Inc.'s KFC Corp.

The fast-food giant said it plans to raise its capital spending in China by 40% next year from this year's level. It will build as many as 200 new stores across the country next year, more than in any previous year, and swap out the old red and yellow decor for a more relaxed, European-style bistro design.

McDonald's declined to say the value of its investment. It also plans by 2013 to remodel 80% of its existing outlets.

"We're committed to China, changing the face of the brand to become a place where young consumers want to come and stay," Kenneth Chan, McDonald's chief executive of China, said at a news conference Wednesday. The golden arches won't disappear, but their treatment will be made more subtle. The designs in China will mimic those under way in the U.S.

The company, which has been in China for 20 years, is throwing greater weight into the country as competition in the fast-food arena is becoming increasingly fierce. KFC, owned by Yum! Brands Inc., leads all restaurant chains in China, with about 3,200 locations. McDonald's has around 1,100.

Taiwan's Ting Hsin Group, operates more than 1,000 Dicos fried-chicken restaurants. Other companies, including California Pizza Kitchen Inc. and German upscale seafood chain Nordsee GmbH, plan to expand or enter the market. Starbucks Corp. recently announced it plans to better than triple the number of stores it has in China in the next five years to more than 1,500.

By introducing updated designs for the new and existing stores, the Oak Brook, Ill., company also hopes to gain more leverage to introduce premium products and raise prices. China's inflation, which reached 5.1% last month, is increasing costs for McDonald's.

[CMAC]Bloombereg news

McDonald's a month ago raised the prices of nine items, including chicken McNuggets, pies and ice cream, by 0.5 yuan to one yuan (one yuan is 15 cents) to counter China's soaring food prices. The company also increased prices in July and said it doesn't anticipate additional increases this year.

The company next year plans to introduce menu items in China targeted toward health-conscious consumers.

In Europe, the U.S. and elsewhere, the remodeling efforts have helped boost sales in renovated stores by 7% above those of nonrenovated stores, McDonald's said. The makeover is part of a 2010 global capital-projects investment of $1 billion.

New restaurants, half of which will be drive-through outlets, are planned primarily for China's biggest cities, such as Shanghai and Beijing, but will also be built in less-developed cities. Mr. Chan said the company aims to expand service in cities where it already operates, before moving deeper into China's smaller cities. McDonald's will increase delivery services to 550 locations from 400, and accelerate the opening of McCafés and 24-hour restaurants.

According to analysts, KFC is benefiting from its locations in China's lesser-developed cities, where rent is lower than big cities and there is less competition. McDonald's, which operates in 150 cities in China, currently lacks distribution networks that would allow the company to expand, said Keith Siegner, a restaurant analyst for Credit Suisse. "There's a tremendous opportunity for McDonald's if they broaden out," he said, adding that the company has sufficient capital to invest.

Mr. Chan said the chain is exploring new franchise models that would give the company the ability to license restaurants within entire provinces in China, rather than city-by-city.

"It took us 19 years to get to 1,000 stores," Mr. Chan said. "Now it's time to pick up the pace."

2010年12月13日 星期一

切入鋁漿 友達與碩禾爭市場

2010.12.14 【經濟日報╱記者謝佳雯、蕭君暉/台北報導】

市場傳出,友達集團積極朝向太陽能上游布局,透過旗下威力盟、達方及達興等三家轉投資公司切入鋁漿市場,除了供應集團自製太陽能電池使用外,亦可外銷中國大陸,與股后碩禾爭食市場。

經濟日報/提供

銀、鋁漿是太陽能電池關鍵材料之一,目前以杜邦、賀利氏兩大外商為最高階的銀漿主要供應商,碩禾以自製鋁漿順利打進太陽能市場而一戰成名,鋁漿現占其營收的95%,並努力跨足銀漿,搶食杜邦的地盤。

業界人士認為,以全球市占率有20%的碩禾為例,現階段月產能僅200噸,已名列全球第三大供應商,新切入者的市場空間仍大。加上友達本身也發展太陽能下游的電池、模組及電廠,未來若能順利生產鋁漿、甚至難度最高的銀漿,達方、威力盟等轉投資公司本身將不乏訂單。

市場傳出,友達集團看好鋁漿在太陽能市場應用一年高達3萬噸的商機,加上銀鋁漿也可使用在觸控面板和發光二極體背光電視(LED TV),因此有意搶進。據了解,明基友達集團旗下共有三家相關轉投資公司開始布建銀鋁漿生產線,包括明基旗下的零組件廠達方,以及友達轉投資的冷陰極管廠威力盟,還有友達和長興合資的達興等三家。

2010年12月9日 星期四

超越聯強 大聯大成通路營收王

2010.12.10 【經濟日報╱記者簡永祥/台北報導】

大聯大(3702)11月合併友尚後首月營收昨(9)日公布,合併營收為250億元,月增達34%,年增41%,且超越聯強(2347)的239億元,成通路業新霸主;累計前11月營收為2,309億元,年增30%,雙雙創下歷史新高。

大聯大財務長袁興文強調,若是未列入友尚的營收,大聯大本身11月營收也是二位數成長,加計友尚後營收達到250億元,月增幅達34%,也優於公司預期。

大聯大表示,受惠中國農曆年的拉貨需求提前啟動,使大聯大在個人電腦、通訊及消費性電子等3C產品出貨明顯增加,尤其是iPad iPhone、2.5G/3G智慧型手機、平板電腦、液晶電視、白色家電都有不錯的銷售表現。

袁興文強調,大聯大營收成長超越預期,其中關鍵應是來自合併友尚後的效益。

他強調,併入友尚的產品線後,新大聯大代理產線,將由原來的220條增加至270條左右,員工人數也將增加至5,500人,其中FAE工程師增加至520人,可提供客戶更多樣化的技術支援服務,營業據點也將增加至37個,將提高大聯大集團在亞太地區的客戶滲透率及覆蓋率。

對大聯大躍居電子通路業的新霸主,袁興文強調,合併後的新大聯大將在現有的3C領域,再衝刺LED及太陽能晶圓等新能源,以及汽車、醫療等工業用電子,形成大聯大明年營收快速成長的「第四隻腳」,其中新能源估計三年內營收將達到百億元的規模。

另一IC通路大廠文曄(3036),昨天也公布11月合併營收53.01 億元,月增4.5%,年增6.9%,也是同樣感受來自中國大陸等地拉貨力量提升,不過,成長動能卻未大聯大強勁;累計前11月合併營收約585.9億元,與去年同期相較年增率約36.4%。

增你強(3028)日前公布11月營收也站上30億元大關,達到33.6 億元,月增達18%,年增47%;累計今年前11月合併營收290.9億元,年增46%。

增你強表示,11月營收成長動能來自智慧型手機、觸控面板、電子書、筆記型電腦與平板電腦等市場表現搶眼,帶動快閃記憶卡、電容式觸控IC、中小尺寸面板與相關零組件出貨量攀升。

大聯大及增你強均強調,預料第四季在美國感恩節與後續耶誕節的銷售旺季,加上中國農曆新年的拉貨潮已啟動,預料第四季將繳出亮麗的成績單。大聯大昨天收盤價57.4元,上漲0.4元;文曄以元47.95作收,上漲0.7元;增你強收21元,上漲0.45元。


2010年12月8日 星期三

環泥拚電子 兩年後打平

2010.12.09 【經濟日報╱記者謝柏宏/台北報導】

環泥(1104)進軍電子市場,環泥執行副總經理侯智升表示,已投資近2億元興建「薄型壓力感測器」生產線,明年初投產後,初期可創造年營收6億,預期兩年後可損益兩平。

環泥昨(8)日股價上漲0.05元、收18.55元。環泥前三季稅後純益9.91億元,較去年同期成長340%,前三季每股純益1.64元;第三季因為處分大陸事業,單季稅後純益5.81億元,季增率11.63%。

環泥原本以水泥及建材為本業,今年初起成立電子事業部,以侯智升過去在工研院研發的「壓力感測系統」為專利成果,積極朝電子市場布局。

侯智升指出,環泥發展的「薄型壓力感測器」,在市場上屬於創新產品,可應用電子秤重儀、醫療復健器材及各式觸控家電,但市場潛力最大的應用領域在觸控面板。

為創造「壓力感測器」市場商機,環泥投資近2億元在台北縣中和建廠,預定今年底完工後,明年元月正式投產,該廠初期產能規模為單月50萬片薄型壓力感測器。

侯智升表示,目前僅知美商Tekscan公司以同類型產品應用在醫療復健領域,環泥生產每片的售價100元至800元不等,產品毛利率至少五成以上。

依照環泥規劃,薄型壓力感測器明年投產後,可創造年6億元以上營收,可望兩年後損益兩平。除在電子事業布局動作積極,環泥今年在預拌混凝土及石膏板表現也不錯,環泥副總經理侯智元說明,本業包括預拌混凝土、水泥及石膏板,各占營收比重60%、20%及20%,其中預拌混凝土及石膏板相關建材都有擴產計畫。

侯智元表示,三大事業中以石膏板的市場成長空間最大,環泥生產具環保特性的石膏板,過去原本應用在10層樓以上的商業辦公大樓,環泥看好未來住宅建築對石膏板應用愈來愈普及,明年起石膏板業績應可成長一成以上。

環泥今年上半年的轉投資業外貢獻收益,主要是六和機械,上半年共認列近4.3億元以上,法人預估,第四季將可再認列4億元以上。

2010年12月6日 星期一

宏達電辦策略夥伴高峰會 供應鏈一覽

2010/12/06 【經濟日報╱記者黃晶琳/台北報導】

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宏達電將於12月9日首次舉行策略夥伴高峰會,預期全球將有超過百家的供應商、逾200位董、總座與會。據了解,宏達電將宣布明年手機出貨量要成長一倍,挑戰年出貨量5,000萬支的目標,積極固樁,要供應商備好糧草,迎接明年智慧型手機大戰。

據供應商透露,宏達電可能會宣布明年的秘密產品平板電腦上市計畫,公司對於上市時間、功能及特色等極度保密,但近期供應商已經開始規劃出貨時程,預期宏達電將延續既有手機的採購對象,擴大下單規模。

宏達電執行長周永明親自上陣,與供應商溝通,確保在下個年度的倍數成長中,缺貨不僅不會成為阻礙成長的關鍵,更要在一片缺貨聲中乘勝追擊。

宏達電手機出貨量呈現跳躍式成長,原本外界預期公司今年全年出貨量約1,600萬支,但第二季起卻屢屢超乎市場預期,全年出貨量可衝上2,500萬支的水準,較原本預期增加五成以上。法人並預期,如果零組件供貨順暢,宏達電表現會更好。

法人預期,宏達電明年全年的出貨量要達到5,000萬支,平均單季要達到1,250萬的水準,在零組件的供應、拉貨流程、生產製造過程要求的水準要再提高,宏達電要在全球智慧型手機市場更上層樓,缺貨將是不容許發生的錯誤,供應鏈管理將受到嚴峻考驗。

據了解,宏達電策略夥伴高峰會將有國內外大廠來台,國際大廠如高通、三星、LGD、微軟、Google高層均將親自到場外,台灣供應商相機模組的光寶科及相機鏡頭大立光,PCB業者燿華、嘉聯益,石英元件晶技,機殼廠可成及位速,觸控面板勝華、介面、洋華及TPK宸鴻,收送話器及揚聲器、免持聽筒產品供應商美律、志豐,觸控面板IC義隆電,IC通路擎亞,雷雕天線(LDS)啟碁等高層出席。

蘋果第五代iPhone明年將推出,諾基亞及索尼愛立信日前陸續召開供應商大會,也預估明年智慧型手機銷售量將成長五成以上,因此宏達電明年雖將持續面臨競爭挑戰,但市場的餅也越來越大。宏達電上周五收盤價883元,下滑9元。

售屋所得收益 北市大調升

2010.12.06 【經濟日報╱記者陳美珍/台北報導】


房價飆漲,財政部將再下重手。今年出售不動產的民眾,售屋所得收益比率將大幅上調,其中以台北市調漲8個百分點最多,財產交易所得收益率自29%調升為37%,不但是全國最重,也是史上最高。

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以台北市豪宅帝寶為例,住宅單位坪數如為210坪,房屋評定現值約為1,300萬元。帝寶住戶若今年出售,但不向稅捐機關出示實際交易價格,將按照擬調整的財交所得額37%換算,售屋所得即為481萬元,出售者要繳交192.4萬元所得稅,稅負增加近百萬元。

財政部近期將召集全國稅捐機關,會商99年售屋財產交易所得額課稅標準,在確定調幅後將公告實施。民國100年5月申報99年度個人綜合所得稅時,凡無法拿出實際交易成本的售屋民眾,即要按照財政部所訂收益標準繳稅。

財產交易所得額是按房屋評定現值乘上收益率,計算售屋所得後,再合併個人綜合所得計稅。以台北市售屋所得額擬上調至37%為例,房屋評定現值100萬元的房子,在無買進或賣出成本可以計算收益下,即以37萬元(100萬元x37%)做為課稅所得,依5%至40%稅率,繳交1.85萬元到14.8萬元不等的所得稅。

與99年申報98年售屋所得相比,同樣一棟位在台北市評定現值100萬元的房屋,稅負將增加4,000元至3.2萬元不等;評定現值愈高的房屋,稅負增加幅度愈大。

財政部承認,財產交易所得額在以「房屋評定現值」做為課徵稅基之下,因為評定現值偏低,即使大幅調漲售屋所得收益率,也無法讓獲取售屋暴利者繳出合理稅捐。不過,稅捐機關目前依調查資料呈報的課稅比率,調幅已超越以往。

根據五區國稅局依據轄區內房價漲幅資料,提出各縣市財產交易所得額標準,包括台北、高雄兩個直轄市,以及台北縣及桃園縣兩個準直轄市,基隆、新竹兩市,財交所得的課稅所得額都將調高,調幅最少1個百分點,最多達8個百分點。台中、嘉義及台南三市,以及縣轄市與鄉鎮,則維持98年的課稅水準不變。

近年房價漲幅最大的台北市,初訂99年售屋交易所得額為37%,是自民國82年不分戶數一律按同一課徵標準計稅以來,最高課稅比率;民國79年售屋逾三棟以上者,售屋所得收益率為40%,但售屋二棟以下的收益率從未超過37%。


2010年12月5日 星期日

For Investors, a Shortcut to Big Returns

DECEMBER 5, 2010, By ROLFE WINKLER THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


For a winning investment strategy, this year it has paid to bet against the smartest guys in the room.

Had an investor bought the 50 most popularly shorted stocks at the beginning of the year and held them through Friday, he would have earned an average return of 22%, including dividends, according to FactSet. That is nearly double the S&P 500's 12% total return.

One reason: Since so many hedge funds are scouting for stocks to sell short, good ideas are hard to come by.

Recall that to sell a stock short, an investor sells shares borrowed from another investor. The hope is to buy them back, for return to the original owner, after the price falls. But popular picks are often piled into, creating pent-up buying pressure that can cause otherwise bad stocks to appreciate rapidly.

After all, a troubled business and high valuation aren't the only considerations when betting against a stock. Another key is liquidity. If the number of shares borrowed by short sellers is significantly higher than average daily trading volume, it could take multiple days for them to buy back shares to cover bets. Indeed, for the top 50 mentioned above, shorts would have had to buy all shares traded over an average 38-day period to close their positions.

Lately a smart trade has been to buy popularly shorted technology stocks, including data-center companies Rackspace Hosting and Savvis, website OpenTable and prepaid-debit-card companyGreen Dot. Year-to-date, they are up 100% on average.

Solid fundamental analysis is paramount when betting against any company. At the same time, hedge funds must beware crowded trades, lest they get caught in the exit.

2010年12月2日 星期四

英業達董事長:明年NB出貨2000萬台 非NB比重增至3成

2010/12/02 16:46 鉅亨網 記者蔡宗憲 台北

NB代工英業達 (2356) 董事長李詩欽今(2)日參加亞太資通訊高峰會議開幕典禮,會後表示,英業達今年全年NB出貨總量約在1600-1700萬台左右,較去年衰退20%,不過明年就會恢復成長動能,預估出貨總量將上看2000萬台,較今年成長17.6%。

李詩欽也說,英業達目前皆有伺服器、電子書與平板電腦三項產品,其中由於電子書屬於雲端的終端產品,因此將其定位為智慧平板產品,今年英業達出貨約達100萬台,隨著電子書將逐步內建WIFI、3G與4G等無線網路傳輸技術,預估明年將大幅暴增為600-700萬台。

而穩稱英業達毛利率的伺服器產品,李詩欽表示,目前客戶除既有的惠普( (US-HPQ) )與戴爾( (US-DELL) )外,近期也增加了新的客戶,因此預估今年伺服器營收規模約可達700億元,明年則將大幅成長 4 成至1000億元。

李詩欽說,隨著伺服器、電子書與手機產品的出貨成長,英業達NB產品營收占比將會逐步下滑,今年NB占比仍達80%,明年將減少為70%,後年則將至60%,減少獲利動能下滑的壓力。

至於目前夯到不行的智慧型手機,李詩欽表示,英業達除了轉投資華冠布局一般功能性手機商機外,英業達本身則著墨智慧型手機的研發與生產,目前兩邊皆有客戶訂單,未來成長也看俏。

2010年12月1日 星期三

In Hong Kong, Bet on the Landlords

DECEMBER 2, 2010 By ISABELLA STEGER WALL STREET JOURNAL

In Hong Kong, one of the world's hottest property markets, there are two kinds of companies: those on the right side of government policy, and those on the wrong side.

The city is clamping down on speculation. Transaction volumes have dried up in the two weeks since duties were added to properties resold within two years. Analysts expect more to come and forecast that residential sales volume could fall by as much as 30% in 2011. Meanwhile, margins will be squeezed by high—and rising— land costs.

Naturally, property developers' shares are faring poorly. Among the worst performers is Kerry Properties, which has dropped 9% in 10 days. Shares of real-estate agent Midland Holdings, meanwhile, have plunged 30%.

The outlook for commercial landlords, meanwhile, couldn't be any better. With companies staffing up, the vacancy rate for prime office space across Hong Kong is below 4%, says Colliers International. That compares with a historical average of 8%. Commercial property supply won't come online fast enough to meet demand, so Goldman Sachs is forecasting office rent increases next year of between 20% and 30%.

European Pressphoto Agency

The Hong Kong government is clamping down on real estate speculation in the territory.

Stock investors have caught on as well. Because they generate lower returns on equity, landlords have historically traded at a 15% discount to developers, relative to net asset value, Citi Investment Research says. That gap has narrowed to near parity as landlords have rallied this year. For example, Hongkong Land, which is heavily exposed to prime office space in the Central district, is up nearly 37% so far this year.

Still, upward revisions of the company's assets mean that despite that run-up, Hongkong Land shares remain at a 34% discount to Citi's forecast for net asset value. That should narrow as investors grow more bullish about the company's ability to generate profits from its assets. Since 1989, the stock has traded at an average discount of 28%.

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Another opportunity lies with landlords with property outside the Central district, who will benefit as investment banks and large corporations break up their operations to move support staff outside of costlier neighborhoods. Shares of Wharf (Holdings), a big landlord on the Kowloon side of Victoria Harbour, and Swire Pacific, which has a concentrated portfolio in the eastern end of Hong Kong, haven't run up as much as Central-focused landlords.

Now is a good time to own the owners.