2011年1月17日 星期一

Toyota Tries to Break Reliance on China

JANUARY 14, 2011   By MIKE RAMSEY   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL



Toyota Motor Corp. is striving to develop a new type of electric motor to escape a simmering trade conflict involving China's grip on a rare mineral.
Toyota is striving to develop a new type of electric motor to escape a simmering trade conflict involving China's grip on rare earth metals. Neal Boudette has details.
The Japanese auto maker believes it is near a breakthrough in developing electric motors for hybrid cars that eliminates the use of rare earth metals, whose prices have risen sharply in the past year as China restricted supply. The minerals are found in the magnets used in the motors.
All electric motors rely on magnets to make them work. The new motor Toyota is working on is based on the very common and inexpensive induction motor, found in such devices as kitchen mixers. Induction motors use electromagnets—magnets that only have their magnetic attraction when power is applied to them.

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Most motors used in electric and hybrid cars today use a different type of motor that relies on permanent magnets. These magnets always have a magnetic field—akin to the magnets used to attach things to refrigerator doors.
But the permanent magnets found in electric-car motors, unlike those that hold up the school lunch menu, are made from neodymium, a rare-earth mineral that is almost entirely mined and refined in China.
As car companies race to improve electric and hybrid vehicles, their reliance on metals like neodymium and lithium—used in batteries found in electric and hybrid cars—is raising a host of new geopolitical issues over access to the minerals. The supply of many of these minerals is controlled by China.
Toyota has taken several steps to reduce its dependence on China for the materials, including investing in a lithium venture in Argentina and launching a joint venture in Vietnam to prospect for rare metals like neodymium.
The auto industry purchases 40% of the world's supply of neodymium and Toyota buys more than any other company, said Jack Lifton, a rare earth materials expert and founder of Technology Metals Research in Carpentersville, Ill. There is about a kilogram (2.2 pounds) of neodymium in every Prius, he said. Toyota declined to comment on this figure.
Even in the best scenario of supply these [rare earth] magnets are very expensive,Executive at car-parts maker Continental
"It would be a big change in demand for neodymium" if Toyota switched to an induction motor, said Mr. Lifton.
General Motors Co., which launched its Volt electric car last month, also is looking into alternative types of motors. "We have ongoing development in those areas and the induction motors do work," said Pete Savagian, who leads GM's hybrid powertrain engineering division.
Continental AG of Germany, one of the world's largest auto parts makers, said it already has developed a rare-earth-free motor that will be used in an undisclosed electric car due out in Europe this year. This motor uses a variation of an electric motor often found in power plants.
Part of the rationale for developing this motor is to avoid rare earth metals, but it mostly is a move to lower costs, said Mike Crane, who runs Continental's hybrid and electric vehicle programs.
"Even in the best scenario of supply, these [rare earth-based] magnets are very expensive," Mr. Crane said.
China produces about 95% of the world's supply of neodymium and last summer the country began restricting exports. In December, China announced a 67% increase in export tariffs on the metal and has declared new limits on exports this year.
Bloomberg News
Neodymium at a factory in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, China. Its price has quadrupled in the past year.
Neodymium prices have quadrupled in the past year, according to Lynas Corp., an Australian company developing a giant mine and refinery for the material.
Rare earth minerals are a grouping of 17 chemically similar elements that are usually found together in ore and are refined and split apart. They are used in magnets and semiconductors and a host of other technologies. The U.S. and Australia have deposits of them but lack the expertise in extracting and refining the minerals.
For Toyota, getting around this barrier is crucial. The auto maker at this week's Detroit car show announced the expansion of its hybrid-electric lineup by adding two new Prius variants and plans to spread the technology to all of its models in the next decade.
"The technology that would allow us not to use the magnets and yet to make a smaller size, high-performance motor will come soon," said Takeshi Uchiyamada, Toyota's global chief engineer.
"We currently have such a motor, but controlling the motor is rather difficult," he said.
Mr. Uchiyamada wouldn't say when the motor would be introduced.
Toyota spokesman John Hanson said the new motor could come in the "near term." He added: "It looks like we could reduce cost, weight and mass and avoid the geopolitical issues with the rare earth metals."
Elias Strangas, an electrical engineering professor at Michigan State University, said induction motors that serve as the basis of Toyota's work "are cheap to make and as rugged as you can get, but they are not terribly efficient, and they are big." Improving them "is kind of a holy grail in motors."
Prof. Strangas said he had heard rumors of Toyota working on an advanced induction motor, but hasn't seen a published study on the work. "I would like to see the numbers [on the motor's performance] to say they are convincing," he said.
The permanent magnet motor took off only in the past decade as car makers tried to find more efficient and powerful motors for electric vehicles and hybrids.
"But then we discovered they are a bit expensive, and the rare-earth places where they are mined are not too many," Prof. Strangas said. "We are now trying to revisit very old technology and remove the problems" in induction motors.
At the same time, Toyota affiliate Toyota Tsusho Corp., which imports metals, said in October it would begin working with Vietnamese companies to extract the rare earth metals from deposits there.
A year ago, the same company struck a deal with an Argentinean company to develop a lithium mine to secure a direct source for the key element in advanced electric batteries.
The vast majority of the world's mined deposits of lithium are in China, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia.
There is pressure on the entire automotive industry to develop better supplies of these materials because of a slew of new and planned all-electric cars, including Nissan Motor Co.'s new Leaf.
Electric cars require much larger motors, with more rare earth metals, than hybrids such as the Prius.
Write to Mike Ramsey at michael.ramsey@wsj.com

2011年1月16日 星期日

台積電訂單能見度看到第3季

2011/01/17   時報資訊






【時報-各報要聞】受惠於整合元件製造廠(IDM)的關廠轉單效應持續發酵,及40奈米先進製程訂單接不完,台積電 (2330) 農曆年後投片量急增,3月份將再現產能全線大滿載榮景,且訂單能見度直透第3季上旬。
由於台積電訂單過多無法消化,許多IDM廠開始尋求其它晶圓代工廠支援,不僅聯電、世界先進接單急增,二線廠如漢磊、茂矽等也被IDM廠包廠。

設備業者透露,IDM廠擴大委外釋單,主要是關廠轉單效應持續發酵。以台積電為例,大客戶飛思卡爾關閉日本仙台及法國Toulouse兩地6吋廠後,已將訂單轉至台積電6吋廠Fab2,至於德儀、意法、安森美(ON Semi)、亞德諾(ADI)等,則在關廠後陸續轉單至台積電8吋廠。而隨著IDM廠的訂單在2月後陸續到位,台積電6吋及8吋成熟製程利用率將在3月達到滿載。
此外,台積電40奈米訂單也在美國消費性電子展(CES)後急增。由於英特爾Sandy Bridge只支援DirectX 10.1繪圖核心,英偉達(NVIDIA)及超微的40奈米DirectX 11繪圖晶片需求大增,自然擴大對台積電投片;超微40奈米Zacate及Ontario加速處理器獲ODM/OEM廠大量採用,自然也擴大對台積電下單。 (新聞來源:工商時報─記者涂志豪/台北報導)

2011年1月15日 星期六

光寶科今年獲利將超越去年,續攀新高

2011/01/16    時報資訊




【時報記者張漢綺台北報導】在2010年交出亮麗成績單的光寶科 (2301) 今年可望再攀高峰,光寶科執行長滕光中表示,從全球來看,美國經濟比想像好,歐洲看起來也不差,加上大陸內需很好,今年整體狀況不錯,雖然有新台幣升值、大陸缺工、原物料吃緊漲價等變數,但光寶科均已妥善因應,預估今年獲利將超越去年,再創歷史新高,今年每個事業群的營收均將突破140億元,而今年的ROE(股東權益報酬率)也將達15%以上。

光寶科聚焦核心事業,積極提升產品組合及市佔率,讓近幾年獲利成長優於預期,光寶科99年合併營收為1234.6億元,年增率達27%,創下歷史新高紀錄,其中去年前3季營業淨利為57億元,較98年成長40%,前3季稅前盈餘為70.27億元,較98年同期大幅成長50.37%,稅後盈餘為68億元,較98年同期大幅成長51.34%,直逼98年全年獲利,去年前季每股盈餘達3.05元,以去年第4季營收來看,法人預估,光寶科去年稅後盈餘將逾88億元,創下歷史新高,每股盈餘可望挑戰3.8元。
近來新台幣兌美元匯率急升,且農曆年後大陸缺工問題開始浮現,讓各大電子廠神經緊繃,但光寶科早已因應,滕光中表示,在匯率部分,除正常的避險外,公司也在新台幣、人民幣及美元部位隨時進行調整,讓匯率衝擊降至最低,而缺工問題也因公司有一套方法已經解決,到目前為止已經沒有缺工問題。
滕光中表示,從全球來看,美國經濟比想像好,歐洲看起來也不差,加上大陸內需很好,今年整體狀況不錯,光寶科各事業群去年營收都已突破100億元,基本上今年各事業群都會成長,每個事業群營收均可望超越140億元,獲利也一定會超越去年。
就各產品來看,滕光中表示,LED受惠於LED背光源及LED照明均將較去年成長逾50%,預估今年LED營收將較去年成長逾20%,其中LED TV部分,今年滲透率將由去年約20%拉升到50%,而40吋以上大尺寸LED TV更有80%以上是LED背光源;照相模組目前也愈做愈好,愈來愈能掌握產品脈動及客戶等,其中PIC第一階段營收目標將達30億元,並逐步往100億元前進;電源供應器也因今年LED TV大幅成長、NB全球銷售量逾2億台,以及消費性產品需求強勁,今年將可維持高成長;至於去年表現亮眼的鍵盤,單月出貨量已達120萬台到150萬台,雖然有平板電腦取代NB市場的疑慮,但公司未來仍以朝單月出貨200萬台到300萬台目標前進。

2011年1月14日 星期五

仁寶 今年NB出貨拚增15%

2011.01.15   【經濟日報╱記者曾仁凱、王皓正/台北報導】



筆記型電腦(NB)代工大廠仁寶總經理陳瑞聰昨(14)日宣布,在平板電腦崛起下,今年全球NB市場預估僅成長約一成,但仁寶NB出貨量可達5,500萬台,較去年成長一成五,優於整個產業。
繼廣達去年營收突破兆元關卡,仁寶今年也將躋身兆元企業,成為國內第三家跨過兆元關卡電子廠商。仁寶昨天尾牙主題「科技仁寶、綠動未來」,董事長許勝雄和總經理陳瑞聰參加;廣達主題為「廣達創時代、Human+」,董事長林百里和副董事長梁次震出席。
廣達尾牙旺年會席開將近500桌,最大獎30萬元,整體獎金超過4,000萬元。仁寶尾牙席開近300桌,今年現金最大獎為40萬元,許勝雄說,仁寶去年表現佳,他早有被「拱出」千萬元獎金的心理準備。
林百里昨天裝扮成足智多謀的「孔明」,直呼有36計,去年奪回全球筆電代工龍頭,接下來還要成為「雲端龍頭」。在前次尾牙他裝扮成孫悟空,他說「孫悟空有36變、而孔明有36計」
談到仁寶營運,董事長許勝雄表示,「NB、液晶電視、一體成型電腦(AIO)都成長,平板也開始出貨,雖然證交所說不能說數字,但今年集團營收可達成的目標(突破兆元)很容易推算啦!」
綜觀今年各產品線目標,陳瑞聰喊出,NB出貨5,500萬台,液晶電視從去年540萬台成長至800萬台,平板電腦出貨380萬台,AIO出貨從去年二、三十萬台成長至200萬台,車用電子產品也會開始出貨。



今年目標 衝毛利率
筆記型電腦(NB)代工雙雄廣達、仁寶昨(14)日舉行旺年會,針對廣達去年奪下NB代工王的寶座,仁寶總經理陳瑞聰昨天反嗆:「要當NB一哥,太簡單了,只是仁寶不願意這樣做(殺價搶單)而已。」
廣達與仁寶尾牙首度撞日,兩家公司相爭筆電出貨王已久,仁寶前年奪冠,去年龍頭易主,廣達以去年全年出貨5,210萬台,擊敗仁寶的4,800萬台,重登龍頭地位。廣達去年筆電產量突破原先設定的目標,今年廣達更要加一把勁,在新產品平板電腦助陣下,企圖持續領先。
仁寶昨天宣布今年的營運目標與計畫,陳瑞聰表示,今年仁寶將不再以衝刺出貨量為首要目標,希望能在出貨量與獲利取得平衡,對股東、員工以及投資人,都有好的交代。法人解讀,此話透露出仁寶今年不搶NB出貨一哥,而是拉高毛利率。陳瑞聰也提到NB代工調漲的問題,他指出,在客戶了解NB代工廠的辛苦後,NB代工價已有適度調整,新舊機種都已轉稼,讓代工廠「鼻子已經浮出水面」。他表示,NB代工價不能說調升,只是把現在匯率、油價、金屬價格、塑膠粒及工資等因素適當反映給客戶,做成本上的反映而已。
廣達董事長林百里和副董事長梁次震則未在尾牙上,提出關於今年度的筆電出貨量、營收等目標數字。惟法人估算,廣達今年筆電出貨量挑戰6,000萬台、年增兩成,應該合理。

Memory-Chip Prices to Fall

  JANUARY 12, 2011   
World-wide revenue from dynamic random-access memory is expected to contract sharply this year, according to an industry researcher, as a "huge" drop in prices is expected.
Revenue from DRAM, the main memory used in videogame consoles and desktop and laptop PCs, is expected to fall 12% from last year's total to $35.5 billion, according to IHS iSuppli. That is a stark reversal from the 78% increase in DRAM revenue for 2010. The firm expects prices to drop 45% this year from year-earlier levels.
"After the boom year of 2010, the DRAM market is waking up to 2011 with a hangover," said Mike Howard, senior analyst for DRAM and memory at IHS iSuppli. "With supply exceeding demand, pricing will decline precipitously for the year, causing revenue to decrease."
The next several years for the market, iSuppli said, are expected to be "turbulent" as revenue "heads down in the face of ever-declining" prices.
Although the price declines are bad news for suppliers, they are positive for consumers, as computers are likely to come preloaded with more memory.
Write to Nathan Becker at nathan.becker@dowjones.com

2011年1月11日 星期二

IDM大釋單 封測廠好樂

2011.01.12   【經濟日報╱記者簡永祥/台北報導】



國外整合元件大廠(IDM)釋單比重今年持續升高,以邏輯和類比晶片產品封測為主日月光(2311)、矽品、京元電、欣銓、矽格等封測廠第一季雖有淡季效應,第二季起業績逐季成長。
IDM釋單將成為今年封測業重要成長動能,IDM比重甚高的日月光、矽品、京元電、欣銓及矽格成為最大受惠族群。
日月光是此波IDM釋單最大受惠公司,去年第三季IDM 比重達38%,促使營運表現優於同業,去年第四季營運也因高通、博通及東芝等通訊產品訂單穩定,封測本業也僅小幅衰退,淡季不淡,全年每股稅後純益可望逾3元。
日月光昨(11)日在外資強力加碼下,股價一馬當先亮燈漲停站上34.2元,帶領封測族群全面大漲。
封測業者表示,今年IDM客戶訂單動能相當強,除了蘋果iPhone 及iPad帶動智慧型手機及平板電腦風潮,帶動相關手機晶片、電源管理及及相關微控制等邏輯和類比晶片需求大增,影像導入也是今年重要趨勢,帶動影像感測器、寬頻晶片及系統單晶片等成長。
車用電子市場也快速竄起,第二季將一路旺到年底,讓欣銓及矽格等封測廠今年營運可期。
法人表示,受到記憶體價格持續探底影響,包括力成、華東及福懋科等封測廠,首季營運面臨砍價及匯損的衝擊,加上產業進入淡季,營收將下滑一到二成,表現相對沒有邏輯IC強勁。
相較如英偉達、高通、博通、英飛凌、SMSC、恩智浦、意法半導體等,均看好今年半導體產業景氣,持續提升對台積電及聯電晶圓代工比重,後段封裝和測試也委由本士封測廠負責。
京元電總經理梁明成強調,過去半導體一直訴求的輕晶圓廠,由於擴充晶圓廠腳步停頓,如今隨著全球景氣復甦,已演變成晶圓產能吃緊局面。像過去從未來台下單的美系IDM廠美信積電(Maxim ),今年就首度來台尋找晶圓代工,全數訂單由力晶的12吋晶承接,後段封測確定由京元電吃下。
法人預估,美信每月下單量將由5,000片起跳,有機會成為京元電重要客戶,配合英偉達、IR、恩智浦及英飛凌等下單量續升。
京元電預估今年IDM 比重可望增至30%,海外客戶比重逾50%,配合產能封裝產能倍增,今年集團營收有機會挑戰200億元,每股獲利2元起跳。

2011年1月10日 星期一

NB一哥 仁寶退位

2011.01.10   【聯合晚報╱記者嚴珮華/台北報導】



仁寶電腦 (2324)繼11月份合併營收、出貨下滑後,12月份在傳統淡季下,降到谷底,12月份合併營收為605.44億元,較去年11月份衰退14%,12月份出貨量為350-360萬台。累計2010年全年的合併營收為8519.06億元,年增34%,累計出貨量約4800萬台,未達5千萬台目標,全年從全球NB一哥位置暫時退位。
仁寶2010第四季以來,呈現單月逐月衰退,12月合併營收再較11 月份衰退,合併營收605.44億元,月減14%,年減15%,其中NB出貨量僅? 萬台,比11月份380萬台持續下滑。
仁寶12月份營收衰退的主因,來自大客戶宏碁等受到歐美暴風雪影響,加上12月份淡月,使得出貨急降,仁寶表示,預估元月份將會比去年12月份上走。法人預估仁寶第一季的出貨約衰退5%左右。
不過,仁寶對今年充滿信心,除了NB之外,搶入平板電腦,在非NB部份,明年仁寶的火力集中在LCD TV,預估去年可由2010年的530-540萬台起跳,至少躍增到800萬台,法人甚至估明年可達千萬台,成為台灣前三大LCD TV的代工廠。