Commodities Go Their Separate Ways

MAY 25, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

By ANDREW PEAPLE

A rising tide lifted all boats, but the recent fall in commodities prices has been far from uniform. The 10% drop in the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index this month, as of late Tuesday in Europe, masks a wide divergence in underlying prices, with silver off 26% and corn down just 2.8%. After years of seeing close correlation in commodity prices, investors need to become more discerning.

This strong correlation dates back to around 2006. Before 2006, the correlation between different commodities in the S&PGSCI was rarely above 20%, data from Barclays Capital show. But as commodity prices began their long bull run, driven by Chinese economic growth and loose global monetary policy, the 12-month moving average correlation increased, doubling to more than 40% for most of 2009 and early 2010. This correlation helped cement commodities as a distinct asset class in investor minds.

But during the recent selloff—triggered by fears that tighter monetary policy in China, the euro zone and possibly the U.S. will slow global growth—this long-term correlation has fallen back to around 30%. That reflects the markedly different underlying supply and demand dynamics for individual commodities that tended to be masked by the boom.

Corn and wheat prices, for example, while off their April highs, have stayed strong, reflecting concerns about global supply. The ratio of corn stocks to demand could fall below 15% this year, its lowest in four years, Macquarie forecasts, while a drought in Europe and Russia's ongoing export ban mean wheat supplies will likely tighten.

By contrast, oil prices are more vulnerable to weaker developed-country economies. Brent crude was down 11% to about $112 a barrel this month through Tuesday, and Capital Economics expects prices to fall back to $85 by the fourth quarter unless fresh geopolitical risks emerge and raise supply concerns.

Meanwhile, base-metal markets look particularly weak: Stock-to-demand ratios for zinc and aluminum are already above their long-term averages, according to Deutsche Bank data, while copper and nickel balances are climbing. Firm evidence of improving Chinese demand would likely be needed for these commodities to recoup their recent falls.

Broader correlations between commodities prices could still return, of course, but this time it may take clear signs that the global economy is slowing.

Write to Andrew Peaple at andrew.peaple@dowjones.com

Inflation Clouds India's Consumer Spending Outlook

MAY 24, 2011   the wall street journal

By HARSH JOSHI

It isn't just farmers who pray for rain in India. Consumer-products investors also watch the clouds for signs of how their companies will perform.

The yearly monsoon season is usually a key driver of sales growth for the makers of processed food, soap and deodorant. India lacks irrigation systems, so more than half of the population directly benefits as rains give a boost to agriculture, and hence their income.

But the situation this year looks different. While it is predicted that annual rainfall will be good, India is plagued by prolonged inflation. That is eating into people's wallets, forcing them to cut discretionary spending as they struggle to buy basic food items.

Meanwhile, any fall in food prices due to strong rainfall could be short lived. Feeble storage and distribution infrastructure nullifies much of the benefit of higher production. This was evident last year, when despite a bumper harvest, food prices stayed stubbornly high.

So the pressure on families' wallets from high food prices may not abate. And for companies, the cost of raw materials, both food and other global commodities, may remain high, threatening margins.

At Godrej Consumer Products, where bath soaps account for 30% of revenue, Chief Financial Officer P. Ganesh says lower palm-oil prices are critical for improving profitability.

What complicates matters further is that companies are chasing sales-volume growth due to intense competition across product categories. This, coupled with stretched consumers, makes it tougher to pass on high input costs.

Even so, investors have started placing the annual bet on consumer-goods companies. The Bombay Stock Exchange's FMCG index is up 3.3% in the last seven weeks, compared with a decline of 4.6% in broader markets.

It is telling, though, that during inflationary cycles in the past decade, the consumer-goods industry has produced the second-lowest returns, behind only telecommunications, according to Morgan Stanley.

This year it could yet rain hard on the parade.

Write to Harsh Joshi at harsh.joshi@dowjones.com

晶技今年營收 拚增20%

2011.05.26   【經濟日報╱記者方巧文／台北報導】

晶技（3042）總經理林萬興昨（25）日表示，石英元件產業今年將成長7.2%，晶技業績將優於產業水準。晶技今年在小型化、高階產品出貨量帶動下，全年業績看增15%至20%，首度來到逾100億元的規模，毛利率則可望持穩在25%至26%。

晶技為國內石英元件龍頭廠，公司今年衝刺高單價的產品溫度補償振盪器（TCXO）。目前TCXO已打入中興與華為的供應鏈。在中系大廠的加持下，晶技今年TCXO營收占比將從去年的1%大幅成長達9.1%。

因應客戶需求，晶技今年將投資近十億元擴增六條TCXO與兩條石英元件產線，預計9月TCXO產能將從目前的每月四百萬片增達千萬片的規模。

晶技為全球第四大的石英元件廠，針對日強震後產業的狀況，林萬興表示，整體影響不大，不過，客戶的確有意尋找其他供應商，以分散貨源過於集中的現象，晶技也接到大廠的相關邀請，並與中國兩大電信設備廠簽有供貨合作約定。

晶技今年資本支出約13.44億元，年減30%。林萬興指出，TCXO是整個石英晶體產業的頂端，過去晶技此產品的量與銷售額的占比低，今年在智慧型手機、3G、4G通訊市場挹注下，將擴充TCXO 產能，由於該產品單價高，將直接對公司營收帶來正面貢獻。

晶技今年核心應用仍以行動通訊與網通為主；平板電腦雖會侵蝕到PC市場，但因平板未來多會建有如4G在內的無線通訊技術，其所搭載的石英晶體產品規格較高，對晶技的產品組合會有正面幫助。

圖／經濟日報提供

玻陶業登陸卡位 拚市占

2011.05.26   【經濟日報╱記者丁威／台北報導】

台灣市場逐漸飽和，玻陶族群發展轉向大陸市場，台玻（1802）、冠軍、和成未來在大陸市場的布局，都將成為關注焦點。

玻陶類股昨（25）日表現優於大盤，台玻小漲0.5元，收45.1元，冠軍上漲0.65元，收23.05元，和成則是上漲0.15元，收11元，以冠軍漲幅逼近3%最強勁。

分析師說，台灣玻璃、磁磚、衛浴等市場，因為人口數關係，近年成長速度放緩，甚至衰退，早年台玻、冠軍、和成都前往大陸投資，希望提前卡位，其中以台玻布局效益在去年顯現，表現領先族群，最為優異。

分析師舉例，台玻在兩岸布局相當完整，加上台玻口袋夠深，在大陸，能同一時間興建超過五個工廠，其中還包括個太倉、天津、華南等LOW-E節能玻璃，近十條加工產線的公司幾乎沒有，台玻搶先卡位衝市占，提高產業進入門檻。

傳統上，第一季為大陸建築用材銷售淡季，尤其大陸北方市場更因天寒降低營建開工率。

冠軍第一季稅後純益僅5,300萬元，每股稅後純益0.13元；和成稅後更小虧1,000萬元，每股淨損0.03元。

大陸市場部分，冠軍第一季只有轉投資信益陶瓷替冠軍賺近2,400萬元，合計大陸投資第一季貢獻冠軍約741萬元；和成兩家大陸布局和成中國有限、和成貿易上海公司都虧損收場，第一季合計小虧852萬元。

分析師認為，冠軍包括山東、安徽等生產基地，以及和成，大陸整體的布局仍在布建階段，效益無法完全顯現，但如果未來規模經濟出來，將和台玻一樣，成為「中概收成股」，後續發展值得追蹤。

China's Current Account Surplus Narrows

MAY 24, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

BEIJING—China's first-quarter current account surplus, the broadest measure of its trade balance with the outside world, fell 18% to $29.8 billion from a year earlier, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said in a statement on Tuesday.

The first-quarter current account surplus was also sharply lower than the $102.1 billion surplus in the fourth quarter. On April 1, China revised its estimate of the 2010 current account surplus to $305.4 billion, from the previous estimate of $306.2 billion.

The current account surplus includes certain payments, such as interest payments on bonds and other investments, that aren't included in the trade surplus. It is the preferred tool among economists for measuring a country's total trade balance.

The narrowing of the current account surplus in the first quarter may alleviate concerns over China's external imbalances. Although China recorded a trade deficit of $1.02 billion in the first-quarter, its first quarterly deficit in seven years, economists expect it will soon return to posting monthly trade surpluses and have a significant trade surplus for the full year.

The capital and financial account surplus—a measure of net capital inflows—was $111.4 billion in the first quarter, up from $61.2 billion a year earlier, but down from $118.9 billion in the fourth quarter.

Economists say that while China's "twin surpluses" in the current account and capital account, an indication of total money inflows into the economy, were narrower in the first quarter, they still put pressure on the country to allow faster yuan appreciation to slow the influx of funds. The addition to money supply also increases inflation pressures in the domestic economy.

China acquired $138.0 billion of foreign-exchange reserves in the first quarter, excluding the effects of changes in exchange rates and asset prices, SAFE said.

Earlier data released by the People's Bank of China, which does include the effects of exchange-rate and asset price changes, showed that the country's foreign-exchange reserves rose by $197.4 billion in the first quarter.

The data are preliminary and subject to revision.

—Yajun Zhang and Eliot Gao

大田 傳為蘋果開發機殼

2011.05.25   【經濟日報╱記者吳秉鍇／高雄報導】

高爾夫球具代工大廠大田（8924）獲蘋果青睞，傳出正為蘋果開發「鈦合金」材質手機機殼，迎接iphone5上市，外界預期，大田一旦打進蘋果供應鏈，營運爆發力將值得期待。

圖／經濟日報提供

不過大田公司主管對此低調不做回應。大田昨（24）日股價亮燈漲停，收盤價30.65元，成交量300 餘張。

市場人士指出，為滿足消費市場求新求變的需求，國際各手機品牌無不絞盡腦汁擴大材質運用範圍，並藉材質特殊性來穩定價格及提高銷路。

此次蘋果向大田邀單，選擇鈦合金作為手機外殼，主要是看中大田此一領域的技術優勢。

在台灣高爾夫球具代工業中，大田是唯一與美國參數科技合作，引進電腦輔助軟體Pro-Engineer進行球頭設計，並搭配相關設備、儀器，採用鍛造方式進行生產，精準度優於其他業者明安、鉅明及復盛等以鑄造生產，能充分符合蘋果的對品質要求。

據了解，鈦合金材質在彈性、剛性及重量等，均比不銹鋼、鋁鎂合金等佳，同時具有無毒、無味、不會生鏽，以及氣候承受力強等優勢，目前已普遍使用在航太設備上，缺點是成本較高，但也正應合iphone高單價策略。

法人指出，高爾夫球桿頭代工業受到大陸工資上漲，以及技術門檻降低影響，毛利率正逐步下降，已是業界未來發展一大隱憂。

若大田能順利切入手機機殼代工領域，等於有一個新的事業 ，可望增添另外一個新成長動能。

單以去年iphone全球銷售量四、五千萬隻來看，大田成為蘋果的零組件供應商，將在今年下半對營運產生爆發力道，預期隨著客戶出貨順暢、加碼追單，成為大田旗下獲利新金雞母。

另外，大田除積極跨入手機機殼代工市場外，同時正以自創碳纖維單車品牌「VOLANDO」，布局兩岸市場，準備斥資近億元，在八個城市設銷售通路灘頭堡，未來並放眼全球華人市場。

內部訂下五年內達到年銷售量5,000台目標，以一台平均售價約15萬元來看，每年營收上看7.5億元，將是其另一隻培育中的金雞。

陸電荒催升水泥價，台泥、亞泥、國產Q2賺很大

2011/05/23   時報記者郭鴻慧台北報導

中國大陸區各省紛傳限電，水泥價格漲勢力道強勁，台灣佈局大陸的廠商例如台泥 (1101) 、亞泥 (1102) 、國產 (2504) 等大陸地區第2季獲利備受看好，今年全年大陸區的獲利貢獻預期將較去年同期大幅成長。由於水泥的下游為營建、營造業者，限電並不會影響下游的開工，在需求量未減、供給卻降低下，限電對水泥業者來說實在是大利多，水泥價格不斷調漲，各家業者獲利都將聯袂攀升。

台灣佈局大陸的廠商如台泥、亞泥、國產首季在中國大陸區營運表現亮麗，第2季在限電措施激勵水泥價格上漲的帶動下，各家業者第2季獲利備受看好。法人預估，台泥國際第2季獲利可望挑戰3.4億元人民幣，季增率將高達近2成；亞泥第2季獲利上看2.9億元人民幣，季增率將有15%左右；國產第2季大陸區單季獲利有機會成長逾5成，對母公司的貢獻度將由首季的1.1億元台幣增加至1.6億元以上。

由價格方面來看，首季一向是水泥業者的淡季，今年受惠去年第4季限電將中國大陸區整體水泥報價推升，今年大陸區首季水泥價格較去年同期大漲逾1成，華東、華中區的水泥價格年增率還高達5成。4月以來，江浙一帶水泥價格領漲，隨後包括華東、華北、東北及新疆等地水泥價全數調漲，幅度約在20~50元人民幣不等。5月起，台泥在華南地區價格調漲20~30元人民幣、亞泥在江西、湖北漲價40~60元，國產漲價30元。

水泥製程是石灰礦用窯爐高溫燒成熟料，水泥窯點火投產後只要一旦中斷製程，就得花更多的時間、成本重新啟動，所以產能幾乎是24小時運轉，水泥的製程對電力的依賴度極高，成本結構中約有30%為電力成本，是一個高度用電、高耗能的族群，因此一旦對水泥產業限電，確定產生明顯的供給限制。除了限電外，中國大陸嚴格淘汰水泥業落後產能的業者，因此水泥價格在電荒中應聲大漲，各家水泥業者營運也備受市場看好。

據中國大陸統計資料顯示，今年首季中國用電量較去年同期成長12.7%，3月單月的年增率更高達13.4%，今年的夏季用電高峰期間，中國大陸的缺電問題恐將會成為2004年來最嚴重的一次。針對這次的缺電，中國大陸國家發改委已提出「有序用電管理辦法」，從相關限電政策來看，影響所及仍以鋼鐵、水泥業者等用電大戶為重點，塑化、玻陶目前影響並不大。