2011年4月27日 星期三

Investors Searching for Baidu's Next Chapter

APRIL 22, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


Investors have found Baidu's story riveting.
And with good reason. It is the dominant search engine in the fastest-growing large economy in the world. Throw in an e-commerce sector that grew 73% to $68 billion in 2010, according to Morgan Stanley estimates, and the opportunity looms large.
[AOT]
For its part, Baidu has done little to disappoint. Revenue grew 78% year-on-year in 2010. The outlook for results in the first quarter of 2011, due to be reported next week, is similarly solid. Management guidance is for revenue growth of 84% to 89% year-on-year.
Baidu also stacks up well against others in China's e-commerce sector. Proven technology, a 75% share of the mainland's search market and several years of real and growing profits look impressive. That's especially the case when it is compared to pricier plays like video-sharing platform Youku, which operates in a more competitive space and has yet to move into the black. True, negative chatter about copyright violations continues but has done little to dent business growth or investor appetite.
The catch is that with the China e-commerce story now well-known, Baidu will have to find new ways to impress investors. Some are already in the works, but as Google investors know well, adding to search supremacy is no easy task.
Bloomberg News
Revenue grew 78% year-on-year in 2010. The outlook for results in the first quarter of 2011, due to be reported next week, is similarly solid. Above, the Baidu Technology Innovation Conference in Beijing in September.
Qiyi, Baidu's new online video platform, has already generated significant traffic, but has yet to show a profit. Baidu is also testing a web browser that will contest the space occupied by Microsoft and Google, although given the competition, success is far from assured.
Plus, Baidu's stock isn't cheap. The shares are up more than 50% this year-to-date. A price-to-earnings ratio of 60 may be justified by expected earnings growth, but suggests limited upside. Earnings growth in 2010, meanwhile, was flattered by the departure of Google from the Chinese market—gifting Baidu an extra chunk of market share. The company also benefited from comparisons to a relatively weak 2009.
Macroeconomic headwinds may also loom, even if Baidu's advertising-driven model is defensive relative to some other China Internet stocks. Slower economic growth and higher inflation would also strip some of the glamour from China's Internet story. So while Baidu continues to wow, the bar is getting higher.

2011年4月26日 星期二

仁寶結合四螢 攻家庭雲

2011.04.27   【經濟日報╱記者李立達/台北報導】



仁寶總經理陳瑞聰昨(26)日表示,筆記型電腦(NB)出貨高成長時期已過,現在要找新出路,仁寶將結合電腦、液晶電視、智慧型手機及平板電腦「四螢」(螢幕),推出「家庭雲」的服務。
陳瑞聰指出,現在將重視軟實力,將整合集團內的軟體工程師,成立一新部門,從事軟體開發,目的是將集團內的四大產品線整合,搶攻雲端商機。
根據IDC統計,2009年起,NB出貨已超過DT(桌上型電腦),但NB年增率,也逐步下滑,仁寶今年罕見零成長,說明NB 廠需加快非NB產品佈局,因應新時代。
陳瑞聰指出,仁寶為國內下游電子業少見,同時具備PC、液晶電視、智慧型手機及平板電腦「四螢產品線」的廠商;有別於其他廠商進軍「企業雲」,仁寶將主打「家庭雲」。
陳瑞聰表示,正加速擴編軟體部門,初期屬投資階段,毛利率雖然拉升,但營業費用也會提高,預計明、後年將可看到成果。仁寶已將今年非NB產品營收所占比重,從原估的15%,上調至20%。

2011年4月25日 星期一

Michael Dell Looks Beyond PC Business

APRIL 25, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


Michael Dell doesn't want to talk about personal computers anymore. As Dell Inc.'s chief executive works to turn around the once high-flying PC maker, he has bet on diversifying away from the company's best-known product.
The 46-year-old has been acquiring high-end technologies—such as storage and security systems—that Dell can sell to businesses to lessen its reliance on selling low-margin desktop and laptop computers.
Dell bought services provider Perot Systems Corp. for $3.9 billion in 2009. Last year, it lost a high-profile bidding war for 3PAR to rival Hewlett-Packard Co. but later scooped up another data-storage company, Compellent Technologies Inc., for $960 million.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images
Michael Dell, in New Delhi last month, says the rapid rise of tablet computers surprised him.
After some shaky years, the Round Rock, Texas, company's results have improved recently. The company has stabilized its PC business. That said, it has made little headway in smartphones or with its Streak line of tablet computers. Dell shares are off about 35% since Mr. Dell returned as CEO in 2007.
Mr. Dell, who founded Dell out of his university dorm room in 1984, remains a believer: He spent $100 million in December to add to his already sizable stake in the company. He recently spoke with The Wall Street Journal about his strategy, his acquisition plans and his view of Apple Inc.'s iPad. Edited excerpts:
WSJ: You've been back as CEO for four years now. What has surprised you the most about the evolution of the tech industry in that time?
Mr. Dell: I'd say [the] rapid rise of the tablet. I didn't completely see that coming.
Tablets aren't really new, in the sense that the tablet PC idea's been around for a while. Obviously, more recent products have been much more successful.
What's interesting [is that] business users are not going to give up smartphones. Won't give up PCs. So now you have a PC, you have a smartphone and you have a tablet. Sounds pretty good. Industry growth.
What's also interesting is Apple's great success with the iPhone. Android comes along, even greater success. I think you'll see the same thing on tablets, with enormous numbers of Android tablets with Dell certainly playing a role in that as well.
WSJ: Do you think Android tablets will outpace iPads moving forward?
Mr. Dell: Not tomorrow. Not the next day. But again, if you look at 18 months ago, Android phones were like, "What is that?" And now there are more Android phones than iPhones. I don't see any reason why the same won't occur with Android tablets.
WSJ: In 2007, you made a big push in the consumer business and said it was going to be one of the pillars of the company. Would you still position that the same way?
Mr. Dell: Two-thirds of Dell's profit is not the PC. Of the one-third that is the PC, the vast majority of that is not consumer. I'm just level-setting what Dell is today, because I think a lot of people look at Dell and they go, "Oh, Dell is a consumer PC company." That's not really at all what Dell is today. Certainly we want to grow our consumer business and we want to grow it profitably.
Last quarter we had a modest profit in consumer. It looks like we'll be well-positioned to have a similar kind of modest profit this year. We're investing a lot in our products. But is the fundamental epicenter of the company going to change from enterprise solutions, services, data centers, storage, virtualization, security? No. But we want to participate in many markets. Consumer is one of them.
WSJ: What convinced you that enterprise was the direction to steer the company?
Mr. Dell: If anything changed it was understanding what Dell's actually doing. Look at all the companies Dell has acquired in the last four years. They're all focused in the new areas I've been talking about: storage, services, data center, security, virtualization, networking, software, enterprise.
WSJ: Should we expect more acquisitions along those lines?
Mr. Dell: Growth for Dell will be a combination of investing organically, inorganic acquisitions and partnerships. Certainly we became a $61 billion business primarily with organic growth. If you look at our profitability it's clearly been impacted by the successful acquisition and integration strategy. We tend toward what would generally be referred to as small-to-medium-size acquisitions. So we don't really see that changing.
WSJ: Would you ever consider spinning off the PC business?
Mr. Dell: I don't have any plans to do that.
WSJ: Dell is making a big push in cloud computing where you're not just up against your traditional competitors, but companies like Rackspace and Amazon.com. How do you anticipate that shaking out?
Mr. Dell: The companies you just mentioned are Dell customers. So we're helping them build the infrastructure that enables their cloud offerings. The kind of cloud offerings that we're providing are more secure and more dedicated to the needs of larger commercial organizations. They're not aimed at the start-ups or the consumer.
WSJ: Are companies like Amazon and Facebook—because of their enormous scale—gaining power to dictate terms and drive profits out of the server business?
Mr. Dell: It's not unlike how we would think of a flagship customer. Facebook will define a new requirement.
Well, it turns out that there are 10 more companies that want the very same thing. And then after that there are a hundred more companies that want the same thing. If they're right about what they've defined, it benefits us and many other customers.
WSJ: What's your opinion on the overall health of the economy right now?
Mr. Dell: I think the economy is cruising a bit. We're seeing healthy trends in emerging countries, in [small and medium business], in large enterprise. I think [the] public sector is a little more challenged with some of the budget issues. But there, again, it creates some opportunities, because when budgets are constrained, it causes people to look for ways to save money and many times that's using more IT.
Write to Ben Worthen at ben.worthen@wsj.com

緯創 TV出貨衝千萬台

2011.04.26    【經濟日報╱記者王皓正/台北報導】



筆記型電腦(NB)代工大廠緯創(3231)持續擴充電視(TV)產線,據了解,緯創的捷克TV新廠已於第一季開始營運,並將於馬來西亞興建TV廠,法人預估,緯創今年TV出貨量將突破千萬台。
緯創今年第一季合併營收1,372.88億元,營業淨利22.70億元,稅前盈餘25.26億元,稅後純益20.12億元,每股稅後純益(EPS)1.02元。緯創昨(25)日股價下跌0.45元、收在46.6元價位。由於緯創產品多元化、積極跨足非筆電領域,法人預期,緯創毛利率將於今年第一季後觸底反彈,第二季起獲利可望回升,緯創將在明(27)日舉行法說會。
緯創表示,目前仍處於現增與發行全球存託憑證(GDR)兩大籌資案的緘默期,不便對未來業績表現多做評論,但據了解,緯創內部對於第二季出貨仍具信心,預估出貨可望有兩位數季成長。
隨著捷克新TV廠的啟用,緯創第一季TV出貨量逐月提升,至3月出貨量達90萬台的單月新高,總計第一季出貨量達185萬台。據了解,緯創今年除了既有的Sony和東芝(Toshiba)兩大客戶外,還爭取到兩大新客戶包括LG以及Sharp,新訂單效益逐季顯現。

緯創除了先前已陸續在中國大陸和歐洲分別投資成立中山光電園區與捷克TV廠外,今年還要再投資3,700萬美元成立馬來西亞TV廠,預計年底至明年初開始生產。緯創表示,選擇在馬來西亞設廠主要是為了配合多個客戶出貨至東南亞市場的需求,且該地區有較佳的租稅優惠。
摩根士丹利證券指出,緯創在馬來西亞廠將會以整機(Full-system)的方式出貨,可望提高單位產品價格(ASP)的表現。
雖然近期NB產業看淡,但對緯創而言,NB營收占比持續再下降中,預估今年NB占比將可降至55%,因此其他產品線如LCD TV、手持裝置的出貨成長都可望減緩NB帶來的衝擊。

2011年4月24日 星期日

傳蘋果Q2縮減觸控面板訂單,勝華、宸鴻4月出貨恐下滑

2011/04/25 07:52 時報資訊

【時報-台北電】外傳蘋果第2季減少iPad觸控面板下單,影響所及,iPad主要觸控面板供應商勝華 (2384) 、TPK宸鴻 (3673) 4月營收表現,恐有下滑疑慮,法人估勝華4月蘋果產品營收不增反降,預估月減15%,第2季營收季增率20%以上的目標恐難達陣。
而宸鴻中尺寸觸控面板出貨量也將有15%的下滑幅度,不過由於減單幅度較小,因此本季營收表現受到的衝擊也相對比較小。
勝華3月合併營收月增率爆衝40.31%,單月繳出83.82億元的好成績,重回去年第4季旺季的水準,創下單月營收歷史次高。而宸鴻3月合併營收也以102.72億元,創史上第二高紀錄。iPad出貨表現在PC產業中一枝獨秀,也讓蘋果主要觸控面板供應商勝華和宸鴻第2季出貨表現備受市場期待。

不過近期市場卻傳出雜音,除了日前市調機構iSuppli因為IPS面板與揚聲器供貨問題,下修蘋果iPad今年出貨預估之外,近期又傳出因為其他供應鏈出現問題,市場原先預估第2季iPad出貨量約800-1,000萬台,現在傳出可能落在700-800萬的水準, 並傳出蘋果因而減單,讓原本樂觀的觸控面板廠出貨受到衝擊。對此,勝華指出,不方便對個別客戶狀況做任何評論。
法人指出,先前估計勝華4月份iPad觸控面板出貨量高達150萬片,不過受到蘋果縮減訂單影響,本月出貨量可能腰斬,單季370萬片的出貨目標恐無法達陣。至於宸鴻,先前市場預估4月份出貨量約260萬片,但實際出貨量可能較預估數量減少15-20%,不過整體來看,宸鴻第2季iPad觸控面板單月出貨量仍可望在210萬片以上。
勝華第1季合併營收達213.5億元,市場原先預估勝華本季蘋果相關產品營收可望達到2成以上的高成長,但如今受到蘋果縮減訂單影響,本季蘋果產品營收季成長率可能縮減到10%,合併營收季成長率也可能降到10-20%的水準。至於宸鴻因為良率高、又是主要供應商,因此受到的影響比較小,至於蘋果砍單效應的後續影響,還值得持續觀察。 (新聞來源:工商時報─記者袁顥庭/台北報導)

碩禾首季EPS 逾10元

2011.04.25   【經濟日報╱記者何易霖/台北報導】



太陽能導電漿廠碩禾(3691)明(26)日公布首季財報,有望賺超過一個股本,與宏達電同為電子股第一季每股獲利超過10元的業者,位居台股首季「每股獲利亞軍」,毛利率上看五成,在台股高價F4中稱冠。
法人指出,大立光上周公布首季財報表現出色,一度帶動自家公司、宏達電與TPK股價都攻上掛牌來新高價,本周碩禾接棒釋出財報佳音,不僅攸關台股「F4」股價表現,藉由高價股匯集人氣,也是牽動大盤是否能順利站穩9,000 點大關的關鍵。
碩禾是太陽能關鍵耗材導電漿大廠,受惠客戶群不斷放大,即使太陽能業者3月營收陸續露出疲態,碩禾單月營收收3.38億元,創歷史新高,月增率27.3%,增幅傲視類股;首季營收9.38億元,季增率15.98%,年增率111.09%。
法人預估,碩禾首季毛利率可達52%左右,是台股高價F4當中,毛利率唯一突破五成的業者;單季稅後純益逾34億元,每股純益達10元以上,擠下大立光與TPK,每股獲利居高價F4中第二位,僅次於宏達電。
碩禾不願透露首季財務數字,強調「法說會見真章」。碩禾明日法說會,董事長陳繼仁親自主持,是公司轉上櫃之後,首次公開舉行法說會。近期太陽能市場轉淡,碩禾法說會成為法人解讀後市的重要方向球。
碩禾上周五盤中一度收復800元關卡,收盤上漲19元、收797元,居台股第四位。相較宏達電、大立光、TPK上周股價都曾改寫掛牌來新高,碩禾現階段股價離歷史新高880元仍有逾一成價差。
碩禾是全球第二大太陽能鋁漿廠,去年鋁漿總產出約1,500 噸,今年可增加逾三成至2,000噸以上,力拚業界龍頭。新產品背銀漿也在多家客戶進入最後認證階段,預期今年營收占比可由去年的5%成長三倍至20%。

PCB業擴產 Q2籌資逾30億

2011.04.25   【經濟日報╱記者龍益雲/桃園報導】



智慧型手機、平板電腦加持,為今年印刷電路板(PCB)擴產掀起籌資熱潮,燿華電子(2367)、昇貿科技、台郡科技及由田新技第二季可望吸金逾30億元。
台灣PCB去年景氣不僅擺脫金融海嘯陰霾,且大幅成長,今年持續看好,也帶動相關廠商一波籌資熱潮,第一季已有台虹科技、台郡、富喬工業共募資近19億元,第二季仍續有廠商接力,燿華定28日為除權交易日,由田21日已除權。
燿華高密度連接(HDI)板、台郡軟性印刷電路板(FPC)均是近年平板電腦、智慧型手機蔚為潮流的受惠者,分別為宏達電、蘋果概念股,擴增產能積極,燿華現增15億元,是多年來上市櫃同業罕見規模,台郡接連發行可轉換公司債(CB)加上現增也有13億元。
燿華表示,平板電腦、智慧型手機大廠爭相導入高階任意層(Any Laler)HDI,為此積極擴增土城、宜蘭兩個廠區HDI 產能,預計今年資本支出30億元,這次現增用來購買宜蘭廠機器、設備。
在Any Layer供不應求,燿華3月合併營收已創歷年單月次高,預計高階HDI營收比重,從去年底25%竄升到今年逾40% ,台灣廠營收年增率可逾30%,宜蘭廠規劃最快11月投產。