2011年3月26日 星期六

星商掃貨 被動元件鋁質電解電容供應鏈一覽

2011/03/24   【經濟日報╱記者謝佳雯/台北報導】





日本大地震擾亂被動元件供應鏈,市場傳出,有新加坡被動元件通路商押寶後續將出現供需缺口,跨海來台掃貨,搶購鋁質電解電容器。台系相關廠商包括智寶(2375)、金山電(8042)、立隆(2472 )及凱美(5317)等業績看俏。
這次大日本震災,在災區內設有生產基地的日廠,包括積層陶瓷電容(MLCC)龍頭廠村田製作所(Murata)、電感和MLCC廠TDK、鋁質電解電容和固態電容龍頭廠加美工(Nippon Chemicon)的子公司上游鋁箔廠KDK亦受到影響,目前暫停出貨中。
其中,加美工和KDK工廠主要是受限電、限油和交通大亂衝擊,目前仍有茨城縣、宮城縣、福島縣境內共計四處工廠仍在恢復中。
另有位於新瀉縣、岩手縣、山形縣、福島縣等境內的11處工廠,設備已可正常運轉 。
不過,據加美工公布的資訊指出,雖然工廠分為設備可正常運轉的生產工廠和恢復中的生產工廠,但是,即使是設備可以正常運轉的工廠,還是因計劃停電、限油、重油不足,以及對化學藥品和原材料供應的不安,生產不得不繼續受到限制。
由於加美工為全球鋁質電解電容龍頭廠,加上本身有上游鋁箔廠KDK,在短期出貨不順的情況下,已有新加坡被動元件通路商看好未來將出現供應缺口,近日跨海來台掃貨,搶買鋁質電解電容器。
鋁電供應鏈表示,因這次的地震伴隨限電、限油措施,影響工廠供應情況,就一般需要一個月的檢損期,和三個月的復原期概估,對第二季的供應會相對較為緊張,可能是吸引新加坡通路商忙掃貨的主要原因。
加美工在台通路商為日電貿(3090),日電貿表示,近期客戶端的急單較多,類似去年上半年金融海嘯後的急單效應,仍在觀察市場何時可以恢復正常。
由於日電貿在手庫存仍有二個月以上,加上客戶端的庫存也超過一個月,日電貿認為短期供應不成問題。
台系的鋁質電解電容廠則有智寶、金山電、立隆及凱美等,因鋁電採用需要認證,廠商仍在觀察實質的轉單效益。

日若繼續限電 台廠接單受影響

2011.03.26   【聯合晚報╱記者馬瑞璿/台北報導】




日本地震至今已經滿半個月,日本國內救災動作不斷,部分產業停產修檢鍋爐之後,陸續復工。對於台灣產業而言,影響最深的莫過於斷料危機,但在日廠復工,以及部分業者啟動替代供應鏈,第2季的斷料危機確實已經解除,然而,時間放長來看,若日本限電措施持續進行,影響工廠復工進度,恐將影響台廠第2、3季接單表現。
日本核災事故至今仍未解除,產業分析師指出,日本電力總共由10家電力公司供應,彼此之間可以相互調度電力,只是,東日本和西日本的電流頻率並不相同,日本轉換頻率的變電站只有3座,也因此,即便西日本電力充足,也無法及時支應東日本。
製造業、電子業對於電力的需求相當大,如果,東日本工業區無法持續有電力供應,機器運作不可能因限電措施開開關關,勢必全數停擺或者只開部分產線,短期內還有庫存應急,但長此以往,產能無法供應,將影響下游廠商。
國內受影響最大的五大產業,包含有半導體、LED、面板以及汽車產業,由於關鍵性零組件,如矽晶圓、BT樹酯、GaAs 基版以及引擎、變速箱等汽車零件。國內業者備料大約都在,除了半導體業者庫存備料較長,達2-3個月以上,其餘產業備料大約都在1個月左右,而隨著主要供應業者包含三菱瓦斯、SONY化工、日立化成等業者陸續復工,短期之內,國內業者料源問題也獲得紓緩。
日本地震對台灣其他產業也不是沒有正面影響,在日本鋼廠、煉油廠停工的影響下,缺口逐漸增加,尤其,塑化報價已經亂了節奏,加上日本地震災後重建在即,日本當地對於鋼鐵、水泥的需求增加,外銷量恐將受到影響而減少,目前看來,台廠最有機會晉級彌補缺口,可望受惠。

2011年3月24日 星期四

富士通新NB 廣達代工

2011.03.24   【經濟日報╱記者張義宮、李立達/台北報導



日本筆記型電腦(NB)龍頭富士通來台進軍消費性市場,發表三款新機種,以廣達(2382)代工為主。富士通指出,在全球出貨量的NB中,有一半由台商代工。
富士通昨(23)日表示,NB廠不在東北重災區,不需停工,停工的桌上型電腦及伺服器產線,將暫時移至NB廠替補。富士通為日本自製率較高的NB品牌廠,其NB廠設在島根縣,並未因震災停工,目前零組件供應正常,暫未考慮擴大海外釋單。
富士通上季銷售超越NEC,躍居日本NB最大品牌廠,不過自製比重高,約占五成,其餘海外委外訂單,由廣達、緯創(3231)等台商分食,在富士通NB出貨量中,占達一半的比重。
富士通昨日來台發表三款新NB,由於屬消費性產品,據了解,由廣達代工為主。至於下月要發表的商用產品線,則由日本自製。今年在台灣占有率目標上升至1%至2%,排名則可進入第九大。

2011年3月23日 星期三

Bid to 'Protect Assets' Slowed Reactor Fight

MARCH 19, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


Yumiko Ono has the latest from Japan where officials are making modest progress in containing that country's nuclear crisis, including using firetrucks to spray water on the damaged reactors.
TOKYO—Crucial efforts to tame Japan's crippled nuclear plant were delayed by concerns over damaging valuable power assets and by initial passivity on the part of the government, people familiar with the situation said, offering new insight into the management of the crisis.
Meanwhile, a regulator who was inspecting the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear-power complex when the quake hit offered The Wall Street Journal one of the first eyewitness accounts of the havoc at the site, describing how the temblor took down all communications in the area, greatly complicating the response.
The plant's operator—Tokyo Electric Power Co., or Tepco—considered using seawater from the nearby coast to cool one of its six reactors at least as early as last Saturday morning, the day after the quake struck. But it didn't do so until that evening, after the prime minister ordered it following an explosion at the facility. Tepco didn't begin using seawater at other reactors until Sunday.
Earthquake survivors are stuck in shelters with little food and no electricity, as aid workers are still unable to reach areas of devastation. Tokyo Deputy Bureau Chief Mariko Sanchanta and Yumiko Ono, managing editor of Japanese-language WSJ.com, discuss.
Tepco was reluctant to use seawater because it worried about hurting its long-term investment in the complex, say people involved with the efforts. Seawater, which can render a nuclear reactor permanently inoperable, now is at the center of efforts to keep the plant under control.
Tepco "hesitated because it tried to protect its assets," said Akira Omoto, a former Tepco executive and a member of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, an official advisory body involved in the effort to tame the plant. Both Tepco and government officials had good reason not to use saltwater, Mr. Omoto added. Early on, nuclear fuel rods were still under cooling water and undamaged, he said, adding, "it's understandable because injecting seawater into the fuel vessel renders it unusable."
Tepco spokesman Hiro Hasegawa said the company, "taking the safety of the whole plant into consideration, was trying to judge the appropriate timing to use seawater."
Kyodo News / Associated Press
Tepco managing director Akio Komori after a press conference Friday.
"This disaster is 60% man-made," said one government official. "They failed in their initial response. It's like Tepco dropped and lost a 100 yen coin while trying to pick up a 10 yen coin."
Government efforts also were plagued with delays. Japan's military, the Self-Defense Forces, didn't participate in cool-down efforts in a big way until Wednesday, after four of the six reactors had suffered damage and the remaining two showed signs of heating as well. A military spokesman said forces didn't move in because they weren't requested by Tepco. A Tepco spokesman declined to comment on the issue specifically, saying in general the company is in contact with the government.
Even a swifter response would have faced grave challenges. The quake and the tsunami cut off the plant from nearly all communications in the crucial early hours, an eyewitness told the Journal.
Kazuma Yokota, a safety inspector with Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, or NISA, was at the plant at the time. He ducked under a desk as the temblor struck with a force that cracked the walls, he recalled. He then moved to his monitoring office, a 15-minute drive away. "There was no power, no phone, no fax, no Internet," he said. He wasn't able to get a backup generator working until that night.
On Friday, NISA raised the severity ranking of the crisis to five on an international severity scale, from four, putting it at the same level as 1979's Three Mile Island incident in the U.S.
Government and Tepco officials reported only modest gains Friday in controlling the plant. They said they believed that fire trucks deployed on one troubled reactor managed to hit one pool of radioactive waste. It was unclear how effective the spraying was. National broadcaster NHK reported Saturday afternoon that the fire-truck spraying had resumed.
The officials said they believed they could restore power to some troubled units over the weekend, which could help cool them. Radiation levels at the site were stable, but still elevated.
International observers say delays and chaos are inevitable because the situation is unprecedented. Yukiya Amano, chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who arrived in Japan on Friday, said Three Mile Island also took time to understand. Still, Mr. Amano cited a lack of information from Tepco.
The March 11 earthquake disconnected the plant from the power grid, and the tsunami wiped out its backup generators.
Mr. Yokota, who heads the NISA office that monitors the plant, was conducting a quarterly safety inspection when the ground began rumbling, then shaking. File cabinets and computers toppled around him.
After the tsunami passed, he grabbed a taxi to the NISA office in neighboring Okuma, which doubled as an emergency-response center. The center was cut off from both NISA headquarters in Tokyo and the Fukushima Daiichi complex.
Word of trouble at the No. 1 reactor, the oldest of the plant's six, wasn't widely known until early Saturday morning, when its fuel rods began to heat—even though it had automatically shut down. At a 6 a.m. media briefing, a Tepco spokesman said seawater was one cooling option.
The temperature kept rising, producing hydrogen gas that caused an explosion at 3:36 p.m. Prime Minister Naoto Kan ordered seawater to be injected, which happened at 8:20 p.m.

One Week Since the Earthquake

Paula Bronstein/Getty Images
Momoko Onodera prayed Friday as she mourned her husband who was killed in the tsunami.
By early Sunday, cooling functions at the No. 3 reactor were lost. Tepco tried to cool the reactor with fresh water, but it was forced to switch to seawater in the afternoon. It exploded Monday morning, likely damaging the containment structure and allowing radiation to leak.
Authorities apparently were unaware that water had stopped going into the cooling system of the No. 2 reactor. They began using seawater Monday evening, but the loss of its cooling system led to an explosion early Tuesday.
Mr. Yokota and other NISA staffers took doses of potassium iodide, which protects the thyroid gland from radiation. The emergency-response center had an alarm that sounded when radiation levels hit 100 microsieverts, prompting staffers to don face masks. By Wednesday, when the staff moved to a safer location farther away, the alarm was going off constantly, recalled Mr. Yokota.
Japan's Self-Defense forces showed up that day, though a spokesman said some of their personnel and equipment waited 15 miles away. "We have to wait for Tepco to come to us and request help," said Tetsuya Kono, a ministry of defense spokesman.
—Nathan Hodge contributed to this article.
Write to Norihiko Shirouzu at norihiko.shirouzu@wsj.com, Phred Dvorak atphred.dvorak@wsj.com, Yuka Hayashi at yuka.hayashi@wsj.com and Andrew Morse atandrew.morse@wsj.com

Gold Miners Face an Oily Problem

MARCH 21, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


Gold-mining stocks are leaden. The oil sector offers clues as to why.
It isn't that gold stocks have fallen. Shares of Barrick Gold, for example, have risen 23% since the start of 2010. But gold, which at $1,416 an ounce is near its record amid crises in Japan and the Middle East, is up 28% in that time. On a five-year view, with the gold price having more than doubled it has outpaced shares of Barrick by a factor of almost two to one.
[GOLDHERD]Reuters
In theory, mining stocks should be leveraged bets on the gold price. Consider a miner producing gold at a cost of $400 an ounce. Five years ago, with gold averaging about $600, their profit margin was $200. At $1,400 an ounce, the gold price has more than doubled. But the miner's profits have risen fivefold.
The big miners' big problem? Bigness. Five years ago, the stocks of leading miners Barrick, Newmont,Kinross Gold, and Goldcorp traded at an average forward price/earnings multiple of 28 times, according to FactSet Research Systems. Today, they average 17 times. Bang goes your leverage to the gold price.
Exxon Mobil can relate. In the five years leading up to the oil price's peak in July 2008, the largest listed producer of black gold saw its P/E multiple drop from 17 times to just over eight times. Investors were skeptical this behemoth could offer meaningful growth, either by higher output or ever-increasing prices for oil.
RBC Capital Markets reckons gold miners struggle to expand organically once they hit output of five million ounces a year. At that level, adding 10%, or 500,000 ounces a year, to production requires developing a project with seven million ounces or more of reserves. Like giant oil fields, such large gold deposits are rare.
Barrick and Newmont Mining both produced more than five million ounces of gold last year. Kinross and Goldcorp have more breathing room, having both produced about half that level, and have strong growth prospects.
Raising paltry dividends could bolster the big miners' investment case, but then big payouts to shareholders haven't done much for the oil majors' multiples. The next resort is asset reshuffling or outright acquisitions. ConocoPhillips' restructuring, which has included shedding assets, helped its stock trounce those of the other oil majors over the past two years. Barrick's listing of a stake in African Barrick Gold last year should be seen in this context.
Buying other miners to expand output is another option as demonstrated by Newmont's acquisition of Fronteer Gold last month. Despite their higher multiples, investors should consider owning stocks of potential takeover targets, particularly those focused on development of new projects such as Orezone Gold.
When digging for growth becomes too onerous, big miners often start panning at the local stock exchange instead.
Write to Liam Denning at liam.denning@wsj.com

China Keeping a Cool Head on Uranium

MARCH 22, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


With its biggest uranium-mining deal at stake, China has kept its head during Japan's nuclear crisis while other investors in the sector have been losing theirs. It likely had little choice.
China Guangdong Nuclear Power Holdings Co. appeared to have scored a major coup when it struck a £756 million ($1.23 billion) deal on March 7 to buy Kalahari Minerals. The deal put the Chinese in the box seat to secure access to one of the world's biggest uranium deposits in Namibia, as Kalahari's main asset is a near-43% stake in the mine's developer, Extract Resources.
[KALAHARI]
However, the nuclear crisis in Japan following the devastating earthquake and tsunami has triggered a collapse in uranium-mining shares that makes the Chinese deal look extremely overpriced. Kalahari shares last traded at 240 pence each (US$3.91) amid widespread worries over the outlook for nuclear power, versus CGNPC's offer for 290 pence each.
CGNPC's stance also appears surprising as other deals in the sector are being renegotiated in favor of buyers. Russia's JSC Atomredmetzoloto was able to shave 140 million Australian dollars (US$141 million) off its original A$1.16 billion bid for Tanzania-focused uranium miner Mantra Resources due to the impact of the quake, and still secure a recommendation from its target's board Monday.
What's driving CGNPC's thinking is probably fear. The nuclear-power generator knows that it caught the market napping with its surprise offer. Many investors had expected Rio Tintoto be a suitor for Kalahari, given it already owned 11.50% of the company and its producing Rossing uranium mine is just a few kilometers away from Extract's Husab deposit in Namibia. By walking away, CGNPC would give Kalahari's board the chance to drop its support for the bid and talk to Rio.
CGNPC's reluctance to renegotiate may also reflect a belief that the current worries about nuclear power—especially in its home country—are overdone. China and India, which account for about half of the 479 new reactors planned globally, are unlikely to abandon the technology given the pressing need for electricity to maintain their growing economies.
When Chinese companies weigh strategic needs against valuations, it's strategy that usually wins. CGNPC's deal for Kalahari may no longer look a bargain, but that doesn't make it a bad bet.
Write to Robb Stewart at robb.stewart@dowjones.com

Europe's Telecoms Hope for AT&T Ripples

MARCH 22, 2011   THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


Europe's telecom giants hope the afterglow of AT&T's takeover deal, the sector's biggest globally postcrisis, holds some warmth for them. Vodafone Group could be among the continent's most obvious beneficiaries. But the deal also reflects an expectation U.S. regulators will allow greater in-market consolidation. Given the uncertainty about that, domestic players should pause before celebrating.
Vodafone's shares gained almost 5% after the deal's announcement Monday, largely as a result of its joint venture with Verizon Communications, AT&T's biggest rival. That reflects expectations the deal distractions facing AT&T in the next couple of years will help Verizon Wireless gain further ground. At the same time, an improved competitive environment if the deal is approved would benefit Verizon as much as AT&T. Both should help Vodafone, not least through improved prospects for a resumption in dividend payments from Verizon Wireless.
Beyond Vodafone and T-Mobile USA's seller, Deutsche Telekom, the positive news for European players seems less obvious. The 7.1 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization multiple paid for T-Mobile USA was certainly hefty versus a five-to-six-times developed-market average. But there is little evidence that reflects a mispricing of the sector. Postsynergies, the multiple falls nearer to five.
Regulatory approval is probably at least a year off. If it comes, it would imply regulators will allow more consolidation to deliver capital-intensive infrastructure needs. That would be useful as carriers begin the upgrade to fourth-generation mobile technologies such as Long Term Evolution. Highly consolidated markets such as Japan enjoy much faster broadband speeds than more-competitive countries like the U.K.
AT&T's deal would reduce the number of national U.S. mobile operators from four to three. European markets often have four or more operators, albeit with higher numbers of "virtual" operators that rent network capacity and greater network sharing. In Germany, cable companyLiberty Global's proposed acquisition of Kabel Baden-Württemberg is a bet regulators might be open to greater consolidation, at least in the fixed-line space.
But a lot of in-market consolidation has already happened. And regulators in Switzerland blocked an attempt by France Telecom last year to reduce the number of big mobile players from three to two. For now, that should curb European operators' enthusiasm.
Write to Hester Plumridge at Hester.Plumridge@dowjones.com